The Dow Industrials have risen on 18 of the last 20 trading days ‘ not too shabby, especially if you’ve been on the right side of the move. You’d have to be an old-timer to remember the last time that happened, since it was in�1929. Of course, we’ve seen many a comparison to 1929 fall by the wayside as shares have risen, and continued to rise, in recent years. We think any comparison to the 1920s is pretty farfetched, since, economically speaking, things were in far, far better shape back then, before the country was thrown into depression. For one, the dollar had not been completely hollowed out by inflation and was fundamentally sound. For two, the country produced actual real goods rather than, mainly, ‘financial products.’ And three, job specialization had not reached the point where a worker could carve out a fabulously lucrative niche trading in something so arcane and inscrutable as, say, Brazilian reverse floaters.
In fact, about a third of the U.S. economy was tied to agriculture, and it would therefore be no exaggeration to say that we were living off the land. One could also say that we live off the land now as much as then, since inflated property values have been a crucial source of economic growth in recent years. Not only that, we’re living better than ever, even if all those folks who inhabit 1950s photo albums seem to be having a pretty good time. Hard to believe anyone would have thought life worth living when there were only three television channels to watch.
The first time I ever saw a color television was in the late 1950s, in the home of a friend whose father eventually would become a TV executive. There were almost no shows broadcast in color at the time, so we watched colored static and test patterns. My friend and I were ahead of our time, since watching colored static and test patterns didn’t become popular until a decade later, when Timothy Leary showed an entire generation how to make such fare seem, not merely interesting, but intensely pleasurable. I shudder to imagine what it is about the 00s that will make us wax nostalgic twenty years from now.
***
A Guru’s Secrets
‘While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I’m truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny – and then some.’
– Colin L. MacVeagh, a subscriber
Aloha Rick. I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver. I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT: Your New Year’s Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at 603.00 — the exact bottom.
– Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber
***
Want to learn exactly how I do it? Then click here for details concerning next month’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar on May 19-20 (Saturday/Sunday morning). Sign up now while there are still a few seats left. The goal of this course is nothing less than to teach traders and investors of all levels of experience how to forecast stocks and commodities at least as accurately and confidently as those who do it successfully for a living.
With just a cursory understanding of the material taught in the course, and a little bit of follow-up, you will never again have to ask an ‘expert’ what he thinks about a particular stock or ‘the market.’ That’s because you will be better equipped yourself to answer the question simply by looking at a few charts.
[Insert Pisarro here]
The course is not about technical analysis in the conventional sense, with its tired and overly scrutinized trendlines, its familiar oscillators, channels, volume indicators, and all the rest, Rather, it is a way of looking at charts with a fresh eye ‘ to see charts as ‘art,’ with emphasis on visual elements of harmony, symmetry, and, indeed, beauty. My annotated charts do not look even remotely like those of other technicians, and that is why the ‘buy’ and ’sell’ signals that come from them rarely coincide with those favored and used by the herd.
Don’t Rely on ‘Experts’
The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader, I can promise, as implied above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.
Although the on-site course was offered for as much as $2,000, I am offering it online for $960, since many of the expenses incurred in holding ‘live’ seminars ‘ including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of conference facilities — are not a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here for more information, or go directly to the registration page by clicking here, then clicking the ‘UPCOMING’ tab.
A Gimlet-Eyed View Of Iraq
by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2007 3:34 pm GMT
Like a growing number of Americans, I’m finding it increasingly difficult to believe that the U.S. will be able to claim victory when our troops finally pull out of Iraq. The troop surge was supposed to give us a way to nurture and solidify the support of the Iraqi people for an elected government, and to make it possible for ‘good’ Iraqis to ostracize their violent brethren. But if protecting the peace requires walling off a Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad, as we’ve just done, then what hope is there for peace? Israel asked the same question of itself, and out of hopelessness and existential despair built a formidable barrier to separate Jew from Arab along the country’s western border. Can we pretend that we are doing otherwise in Iraq, as walled enclaves separating Sunni from Shiite spring up all over Baghdad?
Following is a trenchant view of the situation that I received in Friday’s e-mail. It was written by one Josh Marshall and posted at TalkingPoints.com. While I do not agree with everything Marshall says, particularly concerning the stakes that are involved, it is not the usual over-the-top anti-American screed that we have come to expect from anti-war bloggers. I offer Marshall’s comments immediately below, followed by my response:
‘The War Is Lost’
‘With Harry Reid’s controversial ‘war is lost’ quote and with various other pols weighing in on whether we can ‘win’ or whether it’s ‘lost’, it’s a good time to consider what the hell we’re actually talking about. Frankly, the whole question is stupid. Or at least it’s a very stilted way of understanding what’s happening, geared to guarantee President Bush’s goal of staying in Iraq forever. A more realistic description is President Bush’s long twilight struggle to see just how far he can go into one brown paper bag.
‘We had a war. It was relatively brief and it took place in the spring of 2003. The critical event is what happened in the three to six months after the conventional war ended. The supporters of the war had two basic premises about what it would accomplish: a) the US would eliminate Iraq’s threatening weapons of mass destruction, b) the Iraqi people would choose a pro-US government and the Iraqi people and government would ally themselves with the US.
Anti-Americanism
‘Rationale ‘A’ quickly fell apart when we learned there were no weapons of mass destruction to eliminate. That left us with premise or rationale ‘B’. But though many or most Iraqis were glad we’d overthrown Saddam, evidence rapidly mounted that most Iraqis weren’t interested in the kind of US-aligned government the war’s supporters had in mind. Not crazy about a secular government, certainly not wild about one aligned with Israel and just generally not ready to be America’s new proxy in the region. Most importantly, those early months showed clear signs that anti-Americanism (not surprisingly) rose with the duration of the occupation.
‘This is the key point: right near the beginning of this nightmare it was clear the sole remaining premise for the war was false: that is, the idea that the Iraqis would freely choose a government that would align itself with the US and its goals in the region. As the occupation continued, anti-American sentiment — both toward the occupation and America’s role in the world — has only grown.
‘I would submit that virtually everything we’ve done in Iraq since mid-late 2003 has been an effort to obscure this fact. And our policy has been one of continuing the occupation to create the illusion that this reality was not in fact reality. In short, it was a policy of denial.
Who Are We Fighting?
‘It’s often been noted that we’ve had a difficult time explaining or figuring out just who we’re fighting in Iraq. Is it the Sunni irreconcilables? Or is it Iran and its Shi’a proxies? Or is it al Qaeda? The confusion is not incidental but fundamental. We can’t explain who we’re fighting because this isn’t a war, like most, where the existence of a particular enemy or specific danger dictates your need to fight. We’re occupying Iraq because continuing to do so allows us to pretend that the initial plan wasn’t completely misguided and a mistake. If we continue to run the place a bit longer, the reasoning goes, we’ll root out this or that problem that is preventing our original predictions from coming to pass. And of course the longer the occupation continues we generate more and more embittered foes to frame this rationalization around, thus creating an perpetual feedback loop of calamity and self-justification.
‘It’s a huge distortion to say that this means the war was ‘lost’. It just means what the war supporters said would happen didn’t happen. The premise was bogus. Like I said at the outset, the whole exercise is like getting trapped in a brown paper bag. You can keep going into the bag and into the bag and into the bag and never get out or change anything. Or you can just turn around and walk out of the bag.
Admitting a Mistake
‘Of course, the damage that’s been done over the last four years of denial is immense — damage to ourselves, to the Iraqis, damage to Middle Eastern security and our standing in the world. So walking out of the bag isn’t easy and it won’t fix things. But the stakes alleged by the White House are largely illusory. Most of the White House’s argument amounts to the threat that if we walk out of the bag that we’ll have to give up the denial that the White House has had a diminishing percentage of the country in for the last four years. The reality though is that the disaster has already happened. Admitting that isn’t a mistake or something to be feared. It’s the first step to repairing the damage. What the president has had the country in for four years is a very bloody and costly holding action. And the president has forced it on the country to avoid admitting the magnitude of his errors.’ — Josh Marshall
My response:
I mostly agree. Arguments that the “surge” is starting to work are mildly persuasive, but less so than the persistent, egregious daily death toll. If you read up on Gen. Petraeus, you’ll find that the asymmetrical tactics he was brought in to deploy are theoretically workable, based as they are on the “impossible” situation eventually surmounted by the French in Algeria. The parallels to Algeria are genuine, but it’s turning out that the Iraqi kind of viciousness makes Algiers look like an ice cream social.
The most persuasive argument for staying the course is that, if we exit Iraq in abject defeat, it will embolden the Islamist enemy, increasing the odds of an all-out civilizational war. Iraq aside, if we are to take the Islamists at their word — and there is no reason not to, given the unmitigated violence and mayhem they have been fomenting around the world – then a fight to the death looms, a rubber match to avenge the Ottomans’ defeat and restore the caliphate.
The most persuasive argument for high-tailing it out of Iraq is that, from a tactical standpoint, it will be impossible to defeat a million suicide bombers and IEDs. In the meantime, the wall recently erected around the main Sunni enclave in Baghdad will hardly have convinced the American public, and the rest of the world, of democracy’s odds for survival in the wards and precincts of Iraq. As to the global problem of dealing with an implacable enemy that holds mortal existence valueless, we will be at true peace with the Islamists when their typical Saturday night fare includes, so to speak, an Astaire/Rogers movie and a pizza from Dominoes. Which is to say, not ever.
***
A Guru’s Secrets
‘While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I’m truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny – and then some.’
– Colin L. MacVeagh, a subscriber
Aloha Rick. I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver. I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT: Your New Year’s Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at 603.00 — the exact bottom.
– Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber
***
Want to learn exactly how I do it? Then click here for details concerning next month’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar on May 19-20 (Saturday/Sunday morning). Sign up now while there are still a few seats left. The goal of this course is nothing less than to teach traders and investors of all levels of experience how to forecast stocks and commodities at least as accurately and confidently as those who do it successfully for a living.
With just a cursory understanding of the material taught in the course, and a little bit of follow-up, you will never again have to ask an ‘expert’ what he thinks about a particular stock or ‘the market.’ That’s because you will be better equipped yourself to answer the question simply by looking at a few charts.
The course is not about technical analysis in the conventional sense, with its tired and overly scrutinized trendlines, its familiar oscillators, channels, volume indicators, and all the rest, Rather, it is a way of looking at charts with a fresh eye ‘ to see charts as ‘art,’ with emphasis on visual elements of harmony, symmetry, and, indeed, beauty. My annotated charts do not look even remotely like those of other technicians, and that is why the ‘buy’ and ’sell’ signals that come from them rarely coincide with those favored and used by the herd.
Don’t Rely on ‘Experts’
The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader, I can promise, as implied above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.
Although the on-site course was offered for as much as $2,000, I am offering it online for $960, since many of the expenses incurred in holding ‘live’ seminars ‘ including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of conference facilities — are not a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here for more information, or go directly to the registration page by clicking here, then clicking the ‘UPCOMING’ tab.