Thursday, December 6, 2007

Is the Dollar Revving Up?

– Posted in: Current Touts

One more thrust and the dollar will record its best rally of the year. We can't tell you why the buck has strengthened, at least not yet, but our hunch is that it will prove to be just another correction in a bear market now almost six years old. In the meantime, the rally is having a commensurate impact on bullion, and on the price of crude, which has fallen below $90 after flirting with the $100 threshold for a few days around Thanksgiving. How strong is the rally? At yesterday's peak, the Dollar Index (DXY) had gained 2.75% relative to the record low at 74.48 recorded nearly two weeks ago. The recovery high so far has been 76.17, but if DXY can make it to 77.29, that would surpass the 3.75% rally that ended back in February. Warning Went Out Rick's Picks subscribers received a timely warning just before the dollar turned. Here's the tout that went out on November 6, a few hours before the bottom was in: 'Even though I dissed the dollar in today's commentary, there's still a glimmer of hope for bulls (assuming any are left) in the form of a Hidden Pivot support not far below. It lies at exactly 74.43, and its provenance is shown in the accompanying chart. [See below.] I'll skip the drum roll and trading advice in this instance, since I want to focus attention on the level rather than the number. The pattern that produced the target is one that I feel quite confident about, and although it may not engender a major bottom, it has the potential to put in a floor for the intermediate term. Also, although the pivot may not work as precisely as the ones we like to trade, my gut feeling is that it