Obligatory year-end mark-ups are bound to push stocks still higher into New Year's Eve, but don't expect the Dow to hit new record highs any time soon. That would require a 650-point thrust from these levels, and although a rally of that magnitude would require a trajectory less steep than the short-squeeze that added 700 points to the Industrial Average in the days immediately before and after Thanksgiving, buyers would face far more daunting challenges of supply this time around. Look at the graph above and you can see why. The Thanksgiving rally pushed past just a single prior peak, but a thrust now of equal magnitude would have to get past three 'priors' to achieve a new all-time high. Although we're not going to rule that out, if it happens, odds favor a series of thrusts none of which exceeds more than a single prior peak. A more powerful push ' i.e., one that surpasses two or more 'priors' without a pause of more than a single day ' seems implausible, since it would imply that we are in a true bull market with upside potential far above 2007's highs. In any event, the key to determining whether the long-term bull market is still intact lies in how easily the rallies puncture prior peaks on the hourly and daily charts. We'll be tracking this indicator closely in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned to the Touts section of Rick's Picks if you'd rather not guess about such things. ### Learn My Secrets 'While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I'm truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny
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