Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Retailers Face Airless Summer

– Posted in: Current Touts

Because stocks seem unable to sustain a trend for more than about three hours, we should expect to see them moving reflexively higher when trading resumes on the NYSE this morning. After all, weren't they were falling at Monday's close? As the new week began, we'd set a low bar for bulls with the following E-Mini S&Ps analysis disseminated over the weekend: 'Basis the June contract, it would take a pop today above 1371.50 to suggest there is any buying power stirring beneath the surface.' Alas, DaBoyz were able to manipulate the futures no higher than 1370.25 in pre-dawn trading on Monday ' not quite enough to trigger off a short squeeze at the opening. This set the tone for the remainder of the day, with the tired and the timid prevailing as they are wont to do on many a summer's day. We asserted here a while back that such tedium would be the last thing to expect this summer, given that the U.S. economy is no condition to tread water for the next three months. We see no reason to change the forecast, since nothing we can imagine is likely to reverse the asphyxiating deflationary trend that has gripped the housing market, as well as the consumer economy. Nor will the tax rebate-induced uptick in sales reported by Wal-Mart long sustain the blather of those CNBC shills who insist the economy has bottomed. Mall Decimated The reality is that $4 gas will put a tight lid on growth, causing retail closures to accelerate over the summer months. We see this at the local mall, where vendors have been throwing in the towel faster than the mall's operator can paper over darkened display windows. Sharper Image, Harry & David's, Starbucks, Cold Stone Ice Cream and Appliance World are among