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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
The new web site is up and running, as you can see, but we've delayed the launch of the new chat room for a day or two because it was overloading the server during Sunday's trial run. Some old features will be added back in shortly, including "Actionable Advice" and "Open Positions," but it will take some time to archive the thousands of old touts that were accessible on the old site. You can call up recent commentaries and touts, though, by simply clicking on the calendar at right. ...
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Rick's Picks for Monday
All of Friday’s action, as well as Sunday night’s, has taken place beneath a look-to-the-left peak recorded in the throes of last Monday’s decline. This suggests the futures are in no great hurry to fulfill the bullish potential of last Thursday’s $30 launch. Odds would shift in bulls’ favor, however, if they can muster a rally to 946.00 tonight or perhaps in the first hour or so of Monday’s regular session. That would bring a 968.10 target in focus for the near-term, subject to midpoint resistance at 949.40. _______UPDATE: A bout of weakness has erased most of last week’s gains, creating a downtrend that threatens to bring the futures as low as 886.40 within the next 3-5 days. The midpoint support associated with that Hidden Pivot lies at 915.90. Since it has already been breached decisively, we’d need to see a two-day close above it to infer that bulls are back in charge.
The dollar has opened soft Sunday night, giving back about half of the gains off Friday’s retracement low. The bottom so far has been 88.12, but DXY would need to fall just a bit more, to a midpoint support at 88.04, before we could gauge the strength of the selling. If that last number were to be breached decisively, however, we would infer more downside to as low as 87.24 over the near term. Alternatively, a push today exceeding 89.19 would turn the hourly chart moderately bullish.
Friday’s lows near 666 smashed the Hidden Support at 675.50 that we’ve been fixated on, suggesting that still lower prices are imminent. Accordingly, my downside target for the week is 626.20, but we’ll be looking for a possible battle between bulls and bears near 675 before the futures plummet in earnest. If a short-squeeze gets the better of bears today, however, it would be signaled by a print above 703.50, a small but pivotal peak shown on the accompanying chart. Sunday night owls could try bottom-fishing at 676.25, the midpoint support of a minor downtrend, but I wouldn’t recommend an initial stop-loss wider than 674.75. If the order fills, you’ll be on your own.
Friday’s silliness in the final hour left the futures hovering near the 6630 Hidden Pivot midpoint — now resistance — of a bearish pattern that projects to 6282. The latter number is my minimum downside projection for this week, but it could be a day or two before the futures start down again, since the squeeze created a bullish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. DaBoyz are likely to toy with bears in the early going on Monday, or even to torture them if there is news on the tape that could be construed, by some considerable stretch of the imagination, as bullish.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Reincarnated GM Could Lead the Way
by Rick Ackerman on March 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
As General Motors goes, so goes the nation? There was a time when this was very nearly true – never moreso than in 1955, when the company became the first to pay taxes of more than $1 billion. Now, with GM a heartbeat from flatlining, policymakers are still wrangling about the funeral arrangements. We should pay close attention to the process, since it could bring our leaders to acknowledge that it is not in the nation’s best interest to keep a failed business on a respirator, especially when doing so consumes billions of taxpayer dollars per week.
Deal forthrightly with GM and perhaps our leaders will be sufficiently emboldened to let some big banks fail. A couple of Republicans floated this idea on TV Sunday morning, and so far it appears they have lived to tell about it. We should all be heartened when such a simple and sensible idea does not provoke a firestorm on Capitol Hill. Expect the issue to resurface as soon as a seemly interval has passed to allow GM to segue into the hereafter. » Read the full article