The two rally targets that I billboarded in today’s commentary should be taken with a grain of salt, since the 842.25 peak reached yesterday was more important than either of them. That suggests at least the possibility of a pullback in order to recharge the futures for their next short-squeeze rampage, assuming there is one.  I am telling you this in the interest of correcting a weakness that has occasionally overshadowed the accuracy of my short-term forecasts — namely, a tendency to extrapolate intermediate trends one target too far. Some of you may recall that I did this in March Gold when it topped at 1007. Although I had this target nailed from levels well below it, I assumed that the next target, 1025 (if memory serves), would be reached. Instead, the futures embarked on a nasty correction that was still in effect as of yesterday. My forecasts quickly got in gear with the subsequent selloff, but in retrospect I’d have preferred not to have been a day behind it.  Getting back to the S&Ps, the 852 rally target given in today’s commentary is indeed valid. However, the first hint of trouble would come on a retracement Thursday night that exceeds the 830.00 midpoint of the small pattern shown in the chart. Caveat emptor! _______ UPDATE: The 830.00 mipoint precisely contained selling overnight, and a contract bought at that low could have reaped the fruits of  the 14.50-point rally that followed. The actual high in pre-dawn trading was at 844.50 — precisely coincident with the target given in the chat room on Thursday. The rally gave way to a schizoid, 20-point dive that continues to this moment. The selloff was said to have been triggered by a woesome unemployment number that could not have surprised anyone.

June Crude somewhat exceeded a midpoint resistance at 54.13 (A=45.95 on March 16), hinting of more upside to its ‘D’ sibling at 59.20. If the target is reached, that would still leave the trend in the category of bear rally, since it would fall just a tad shy of an important peak at 59.68 recorded on January 6.  Night owls might use a minor Hidden Pivot support at 53.89 to attempt bottom-fishing, but I’d risk no more than 7-8 cents on this one, since the support looks delicate.

Like Gold, Silver keeps popping bullish impulse legs on the intraday charts, only to squander the opportunity by receding into feebleness. I read the action as biding time, not weakness,but a fall to 11.620 is possible over the next 4-5 days if SI follows Gold down to its 845 target.  The near-term picture would brighten, to put it mildly, if the May contract were to close for two consecutive days above 13.560. That’s a midpoint resistance, and its decisive breach would indicate more upside to at least 14.555. Late Thursday night, around 2 a.m., the futures were working on a promising bullish impulse leg with a correction so far down to 12.850 (aka point ‘C’). If it holds, the “buy” trigger would come at 13.060, with midpoint resistance at 13.560.