Friday, April 3, 2009

Like Gold, Silver keeps popping bullish impulse legs on the intraday charts, only to squander the opportunity by receding into feebleness. I read the action as biding time, not weakness,but a fall to 11.620 is possible over the next 4-5 days if SI follows Gold down to its 845 target. The near-term picture would brighten, to put it mildly,

I've lowered my minimum downside target in Gold to 845 as a result of an analysis done during this evening's Hidden Pivot webinar. The accompanying chart makes clear why we should prepare for a lengthy correction before Gold makes another serious run at $1000.

I noticed something odd about June Gold's chart this evening during the Hidden Pivot webinar: The February 20 high at 1009.80 did notsurpass a key peak at 1012.40 recorded last July. As a result, it yields a more bearish conclusion than

June Crude somewhat exceeded a midpoint resistance at 54.13 (A=45.95 on March 16), hinting of more upside to its 'D' sibling at 59.20. If the target is reached, that would still leave the trend in the category of bear rally, since it would

_______ UPDATE: The 830.00 mipoint precisely contained selling overnight, and a contract bought at that low could have reaped the fruits of the 14.50-point rally that followed. The actual high in pre-dawn trading was at 844.50 -- precisely coincident with the target given in the chat room on Thursday. The rally gave way to a schizoid, 20-point dive that continues to this moment. The selloff was said to have been triggered by a woesome unemployment number that could not have surprised anyone.

Someone mentioned my bullish targets for this vehicle in the chat room Thursday, so I thought I'd have another look. Despite the selloff in physical gold, the outlook for stocks tracked in the Gold Bugs Index remains bright. Yesterday's cascade

Rick's Picks subscribers were well prepared for the diabolical price action in gold yesterday, since a forecast sent out the night before caught both the high and low of June Gold's $35 swing almost exactly. Comex futures were in a promising rally when we published an advisory just after midnight that warned of potential trouble precisely at 931.60 (a "Hidden Pivot" resistance). Gold in fact topped moments later at 931.80, then plummeted to 896.10 -- just 80 cents from a bearish target we'd spotlighted in yet another midnight bulletin.  Price action in the E-Mini S&P proved equally felicitous, since we'd identified a rally target at 843.75 that came within 1.50 points of nailing the top of yesterday's 37-point surge. That target also went out to subscribers in the wee hours on Thursday. So what are we forecasting now?  More of the same, actually. If Gold takes out yesterday's bottom, it is likely to fall to at least 874.00 or to 856.00 if any lower. As for the S&P futures, currently trading for around 835, they look like a good bet to rally to at least 852, which would imply a 150-point surge in the Dow Industrials. The picture of strength is reinforced by the strong leadership of Goldman Sachs, a favorite bellwether of ours that looks all but certain to reach a Hidden Pivot target at 120.34.  With the stock trading in the $90s a while back, we advised purchasing some July 115-April 115 calendar spreads for $6, and the trade has worked out nicely. But with a further rally to $120 now in prospect, we advised adding some July 120-April 120 call spreads to the position for 9.80. This spread could widen to as much as 18.00 if Goldman shares are sitting just below 120 when the April options