March 12th, 2010
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COMMENTARY for Thursday

Why Tax Protestors Have Got It Wrong

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 2:06 am GMT · 13 comments

With Tea Party protests erupting across the U.S., we wonder whether the anger will mutate into riots once taxes are actually raised. So far, though, and as far as we’re aware, all of those extravagant stimulus packages have yet to cost Joe Taxpayer a dime.  How can this be, you ask, when the U.S. Government supposedly has gone trillions of dollars deeper in hock to pay for it all?  Some will explain that it’s just “Buy Now, Pay Later!” on an epic scale.  But considering that no one has been taxed for all the goodies yet, one could almost » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday

An Imaginative Stretch for Bears

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 3:07 am GMT

Better put aside yesterday’s dour headline atop the front page of the Wall Street Journal, “Banks Ramp Up Foreclosures,” since we need to be mindful of the fact that the stock  market is connected to the real world only in tenuous and highly unintuitive ways.  That’s why I’ve provided a rally target for the Dow Industrials that is intended to stretch the permabear’s imagination.


Rick's Picks for Thursday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Current  Actionable  Open
All Picks By Issue:

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:121.07)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 2:22 am GMT

Our calendar-spread position has gained a mildly bearish bias with the approach of April expiration, so I'll recommend closing it out on any weakness this morning that brings Goldman down to 120 or lower. In such circumstances you should come away with a net gain of $1,200 or more, ...

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ESM09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:848.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 2:41 am GMT

UPDATE (10:35 a.m.): The night owl trade worked like gangbusters, since risking as litle as $50 on the initial stop-loss would have returned as much as $700 per contract. The rally to 855.00 was halted by a minor pivot that looks like it eventually will be surmounted, but there is no evidence of any particular strength today. A Hidden Pivot at ____ can be used a a minimum upside target for now....

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GOOG – Google (Last:384.88)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 2:54 am GMT

_______ UPDATE (11:10 a.m.) Google's $24 run-up over the last two days is evidence that the company cannot keep an earnings secret, but don't hold your breath waiting for the canny insiders who took advantage of it to be prosecuted. In any event, the surge so far has accomplished only what we'd expected all along, driving the stock to a peak this morning that lay within 40 cents of the 387.70 target we identified a couple of weeks ago. The September 270 puts traded down to 8.31, so we'll carry one officially for 8.40....

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Dow Industrials (last: 8030)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 3:02 am GMT

An ____ target flagged here earlier still looks like a good bet to produce a tradable top, although bears had better step aside if that Hidden Pivot is exceeded by more than a few points the first time it's touched. Thereafter, we'd be looking at a possible finishing stroke to as high as 8569...

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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Thursday

Diamonds (last 81.59)

by Rick Ackerman on April 16, 2009 7:40 pm GMT

We've bought September puts in Google and Microsoft with the goal of spreading them off when the stocks fall. However, since we also expect the broad average to move somewhat higher in the meantime, we can leverage the bullish case by buying out-of-the-money calendar spreads in the Diamonds. Specifically, I am recommending that you buy ...

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