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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
An aging downside target at 845.20 looks as compelling as ever, but for today at least, it wouldn’t much to turn the hourly chart bullish. Specifically, a pop to 881.50 would do the trick. That would surpass more than the required two prior peaks needed to create an impulse leg, but in this case raising the bar by an additional two peaks is needed to bring us more confidently to the bullish case, since the first two peaks look a like namby-pambys. I have included a chart that shows what is needed.
There is still a rally target outstanding at 8343, and it is that fact more than any other right now that suggests stocks will go at least somewhat higher before the six-week-old bear rally peters (or perhaps flames) out. Assuming the Indoos take a little rest before their next sucker’s leap, we should look for the pullback to come down to at least 8047, a midpoint pivot asssociated with the target. As always, an easy breach of that support would suggest that more selling awaits.
The Gold Bugs Index somewhat exceeded an important 341.01 rally target at its last peak, providing modest encouragement that the nasty selloff since has been corrective rather than impulsive. We’ll know more if and when HUI encounters a Hidden Pivot support at 265.12, my minimum downside projection for the near term. If the selling overshoots that mark and then continues to at least to 254.94, that would be a bearish sign going forward, implying more slippage to as low as 238.51 over the next 3-5 days.
Friday’s peak occurred exactly where expected, and although the rally threatened to break above the 871.25 pivot, it ultimately failed by a single tick to trip our alarm. That would have warned of more upside to at least 890.00; instead, the futures sold off moderately into the close and continued to ease lower Sunday night. The selling didn’t look very serious, though, and we should infer that any further weakness will be reversed in the early going Monday. The first hint that the weakness is real, not stage-managed, would come on a print overnight at 853.50.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Monday
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Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Suddenly, a Town Is on the Ropes
by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 5 comments
Here’s the headline from Saturday morning’s Boulder Camera that pushed Colorado’s big snowstorm off the front page: City Mulls Millions in Cuts. Uh-oh. Could it have been just a few short weeks ago that we were reading about how Boulder’s budget was well under control? The story then was that the city was going to have to watch expenditures more closely than usual because of the severity of the economic downturn. Now, though, they’re talking about shutting down the recreation centers, fire stations, libraries and who knows what else. There’s also the dreaded possibility of “special tax districts” that would raise money to support services and amenities that most taxpayers must have thought they » Read the full article