by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT
There are good reasons for not charging enthusiastically into Monday’s opening, starting with the failure of Friday’s rally to exceed a Hidden Pivot target that I’d drum-rolled in the E-Mini S&P. There is also an Armstrong cycle date to respect, along with another from Paul Montgomery, a forecaster whose market calls have been described as “eerily accurate” by no less an authority on cycles than Peter Eliades. In the meantime, we have some modest bearish plays working in Google and Microsoft, but the stock market will have to fall before we can spread off what little risk we have in these two stocks. We also have a bull calendar spread in the Diamonds that has ebbed into slight profitability, but it will need to ripen some before we take a partial profit. I’ll post more touts for the new week Sunday night, after electronic index futures have begun to trade, so stay tuned!
by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT
An aging downside target at ____ looks as compelling as ever, but for today at least, it wouldn't much to turn the hourly chart bullish. Specifically, a pop to _____ would do the trick. That would surpass more than the required two prior peaks needed to create an impulse leg...
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by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:02 am GMT
There is still a rally target outstanding at ____, and it is that fact more than any other right now that suggests stocks will go at least somewhat higher before the six-week-old bear rally peters (or perhaps flames) out. Assuming the Indoos take a little rest before their next sucker's leap, we should look for the pullback to come down to at least ____, a midpoint pivot asssociated with the target. As always, an easy breach of that support would suggest that more selling awaits.
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by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:03 am GMT
The Gold Bugs Index somewhat exceeded an important 341.01 rally target at its last peak, providing modest encouragement that the nasty selloff since has been corrective rather than impulsive. We'll know more if and when HUI encounters a Hidden Pivot support at ____, my minimum downside projection for the near term. ...
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by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 3:13 am GMT
Friday's peak occurred exactly where expected, and although the rally threatened to break above the 871.25 pivot, it ultimately failed by a single tick to trip our alarm. That would have warned of more upside to at least 890.00; instead, the futures sold off moderately into the close and continued to ease lower Sunday night. The selling didn't look very serious, ...
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by Michael Johnston on April 20, 2009 12:02 am GMT
Suddenly, a Town Is on the Ropes
by Rick Ackerman on April 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 5 comments
Here’s the headline from Saturday morning’s Boulder Camera that pushed Colorado’s big snowstorm off the front page: City Mulls Millions in Cuts. Uh-oh. Could it have been just a few short weeks ago that we were reading about how Boulder’s budget was well under control? The story then was that the city was going to have to watch expenditures more closely than usual because of the severity of the economic downturn. Now, though, they’re talking about shutting down the recreation centers, fire stations, libraries and who knows what else. There’s also the dreaded possibility of “special tax districts” that would raise money to support services and amenities that most taxpayers must have thought they » Read the full article