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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
PICK OF THE DAY for Wednesday
I'd projected a downside target at 44.36, but June Crude appears to be making a turn from a so-far low at 46.72. The rally projects to ____, and that target has already been affirmed by the precise stopping power of its sibling midpoint, 49.09. ...
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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Continue to use 911.90 as a bullish trigger, since a print at that price would create an impulse leg that would be unstoppable over the near term. Failing that, the futures will remain an even-odds bet to fall to at least 845.20 before they make their next important low. If there is weakness today, the best place to try bottom-fishing would be at 877.90, a midpoint pivot that can be tied to a stop-loss as tight as four ticks (0.40).
A Hidden Pivot at 11.140 is equivalent to the 845.20 downside target in June Gold, with the same odds. The trigger for an in-your-face bullish turn would come at 13.160, but there are no places to bottom-fish Tuesday night that look as promising as the Hidden Pivot support flagged in Gold.
I mentioned this in the chat room today, but let me make it official by recording it as a tout: The Dollar Index looks like it could bore bulls and bears alike to tears for the foreseeable future. The weekly chart is unmistakably bullish, and that is why I think the stalemate will be resolved to the upside, hard as that is to believe. But the daily chart shows dueling impulse legs — bull feints followed by bear feints — that suggest the conflict could go on for some time, perhaps for as long as 3-4 months. We may be able to get a better read if DXY tangles with a major Hidden Pivot on the daily chart, but this is not imminent because there are no such pivots near these levels.
The futures were falling hard around 3:20 a.m., down a little more than ten points and trading near their lows. However, the selling was steady and left no obvious reference points, even on the 5-minute chart, to plot ABC coordinates and a target. My hunch is that the selling will continue to at least 828.50, a vague midpoint support whose ‘D’ sibling lies at 808.25. If there is a bounce precisely from 828.50, that would affirm the validity of the target itself once the midpoint has been breached.
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This Just In... for Wednesday
We keep asking our inflationist colleagues when and where those big price increases they’ve been predicting for the last ten years will first emerge, but the answer, evidently, is not in Spain — or even in euroland. Here’s the New York Times link to the story, ‘Spain’s Falling Prices Fuel Deflation Fears in Europe’ .
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Gold Shrugs Off Fools’ Body Blows
by Rick Ackerman on April 22, 2009 1:21 am GMT · 2 comments
With the stock market giddy as ever yesterday, gold held up surprisingly well. The June Comex contract was off just slightly even though Dow Industrials tacked on 128 points. Ordinarily, with the broad averages in a moderate short-squeeze, we would have expected bullion futures to give up more of the gains they’d achieved on Friday. In a bigger picture gold looks even more impressive, since it has fallen by only six percent while the Dow has » Read the full article