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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
The bear rally has assumed the demeanor of Mr. Hyde at the moment, not so much unpredictable as too skittish to frame calmly in one’s crosshairs. Even so, we should expect the death dive begun in the final hour of yesterday’s session to reach 809.75 if it trashes that Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 834.25 Wednesday night. So far, shortly before 11 p.m. EDT, the low was 833.00 — probably sufficient for us to infer that lower prices are coming. If so, you can bottom-fish at 809.75 with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. _______ UPDATE (7:00 a.m. EDT): The futures went no lower than 833.00 overnight and were actually up as much as ten points in a short squeeze aggravated by Credit Suisse’s positive earnings report. The lies and self-deceptions associated with this news are so thick as to cast a fatal pall over any rally, but we will short it gingerly nonetheless, since applying logic aggressively is just looking for trouble.
At yesterday’s close the futures looked poised for a thrust to at least 910.30, a Hidden Pivot, but they’ll need to push just a tad higher, to 911.80, to revitalize the bull trend begun from 865 three days ago. That wouldn’t negate an 845.20 target we’ve been using as a potentially important correction low, but it would alter the odds significantly in bulls’ favor.
We hold the Sep 84-May 84 calendar spread four times for 3.45. It is a conservative bullish play, but there is growing downside exposure that we should take steps to neutralize. Accordingly, I’ll suggest bidding 1.62 for a single May 76 put DUQX) on the opening. If the order goes unfilled, lower the bid to 1.46 and leave it in for the remainder of the session. Check back after the opening, since we may need to adjust on-the-fly. _______ UPDATE: (7:04 a.m. EDT): Assuming stocks don’t give up much of their predawn gains, I estimate that the May 76 puts will open for around 1.47. Let’s bid 1.51 for them, since we’ll get a lower price anyway if the market makers believe they can steal them for less on the opening rotation. Check this bid price five minutes before the opening, since I may lower it again.
Silver Wheaton topped a list of precious-metal buy recommendations sent out a few days ago by George Carson, a New Zealand forecaster using a technical system that he says has produced no bad signals going back two years. The “buy” was generated on April 17, but so far SLW seems reluctant to oblige. Indeed, by my runes, the stock looks vulnerable over the near-term to a fall to 6.63, a Hidden Pivot that lies about nine percent below these levels. If this occurs, I’ll recommend buying 200 shares, no stop.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Thursday
The trade in June Crude is working nicely, since the futures topped this morning at 49.92, a penny from my target. If you shorted 49.91 as suggested, you're in at an unbeatable price and proftable on paper, since the futures have pulled back more than 20 cents from their highs. You'll be on your own now, but I'd suggest a stop-loss that would preclude a loss, then a 15-cent trailing stop if and when 49.60 is hit on the retracement.
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Why Working Stiffs Envy the Mailman
by Rick Ackerman on April 23, 2009 2:39 am GMT · 9 comments
Years ago, we wrote here that white collar workers would one day grow jealous of the mailman. It would appear that that day has finally arrived. Why the envy? For one, the mailman enjoys the kind of job security that most workers in the private sector sacrificed years ago. For two, the mailman’s healthcare package is comparable to what top executives receive. Third, he can retire fifteen years earlier than you with benefits that make yours look stingy. And four, there are all those paid holidays, sunshine and fresh air. » Read the full article