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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
A rally to at least at 892.75 still looks like a lead-pipe cinch, but the target is probably too well advertised by now to short with a microtight stop-loss. Since it’s conceivable that the mass psychosis driving this bear rally will not abate merely because it has encountered a Hidden Pivot with some stopping power, we should have a back-up target in mind. For this purpose we shall use 919.50, a Hidden Pivot, and it should be considered a lock-up if the futures close above 892.75 on the same day they have finally achieved it. I don’t expect that to happen, but if it does, bears should get out of the way.
The two-peaks rule applies to Silver Wheaton just as it would any other trading vehicle. In this regard, notice how yesterday’s promising rally stopped just a hair short of the external peak whose breach would have turned the 15-minute chart bullish. We needn’t infer weakness in this instance; rather, buyers evidently were reluctant to move decisively because bullion prices were retreating. The chart yields a potentially excellent opportunity for buyers Thursday morning, since a mere 21-cent thrust would surpass three prior peaks — one of them external. However, if the stock continues to misbehave, it will open on a gap above the three peaks, turning “everyone” too bullish for camouflage. In any event, and just to be in the game, let’s bid 0.65 today for four September 10 calls (SLWIB). _______ UPDATE (10:12 a.m.): The stock opened lower, so we were able to buy the calls for 0.65, the low of the day thus far. Do nothing further for now.
Our bullish position includes four Sep 84 (DAVIF) -May 84 calendar spreads for 3.45 and a September 76 put for 1.49. The spread is currently trading for around 4.00, yielding a theoretical gain of $220, but we can probably do better, so let it ride. If the Diamonds hit 84 this Friday, we’ll try to exit for around 4.50. The timing would favor us, since it’s probably going to dawn on traders by then that May options expire on the earliest possible date, the 15th. Anyway, come Monday, May option premium will start to melt away fast.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Thursday
After topping this morning within two cents of a 129.63 target given here earlier, Goldman shares have fallen as low as 127.25. The stock is currently trading for 127.40 and I am therefore recommending that anyone who shorted the top cover half of the position at or near these levels. You'll be on your own in managing what remains of your position, but keep in mind that another surge is possible to as high as $144 if the stock breaks above 129.65.
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Just a Small Thrust Needed in Gold
by Rick Ackerman on April 30, 2009 1:30 am GMT · 2 comments
Although it wouldn’t take much to turn June Gold’s daily chart robustly bullish, the futures continue to tease and titillate without delivering the goods. They are obviously marking time, too feisty to be knocked to the ground but not yet ready for the inevitable assault on $1000. We saw some of this wish-washyness yesterday morning during the weekly webinar for graduates of the Hidden Pivot course. The Comex June contract was » Read the full article