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COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
Although likely in my estimation, a rally to the well-advertised Hidden Pivot at 144.19 is not quite a done deal, especially if the stock gets pummeled today, widening the distance from yesterday’s high. We would therefore do well to begin the day with no expectations — other than of the usual Friday Follies, with their wonted spasms of insanity, panic, comedy, despair and paranoia. Keep in mind that yesterday’s selloff was not impulsive above the level of the 15-minute chart, so bulls will not exactly be cowering at the bell.
On the hourly chart, the selloff from yesterday’s high missed being impulsive by just two ticks, and today would therefore have to start with a lurch exceeding 856.50 to the downside to turn the short-term picture geniuinely menacing. The 892.75 rally target from way-back-when is still our lodestar; however, it is not particularly bullish that the futures couldn’t achieve that number yesterday when they were within spitting distance of it. Indeed, the failure of the rally to go that last inch hints of impending weakness and even of a major trend change regardless of whether the target is now achieved. More immediately, the futures were trading slightly lower Tuesday night, but there was potential for more selling all the way down to 856.25, since the midpoint support associated with that number, 865.75, has been breached.
Let’s lower the bar slightly for determining whether bulls may have regained control. We’ll put it at 907.70, a tick above where Gold began to unravel on Monday. Otherwise, we should expect the futures to ease lower, reaching a minimum 868.90 before the day ends. That’s a moderately enticing Hidden Pivot support, and you can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 0.70 points. ______ UPDATE: Gold has spent the day screwing the pooch. The earlier analysis still holds, even if the day’s weakness was not as bad as expected.
We bought four September 10 calls yesterday for 0.65 apiece. Sit with them for now, since we’ll need a strong rally to allow us to short something against them for a sum that would eliminate our risk. Immediate prospects for this appeared to dim at day’s end when the stock created a bearish impulse leg on the lesser charts, dipping beneath an April 23 low by a few cents.
After revisiting the 180-minute chart, I’m raising the 129.05 rally target to 129.95. You can short there conservatively with a stop-loss that suits your style, but keep in mind that you will be shorting one of the few companies that is actually making money in this Great Recession. The short isn’t a potential home-run for bears, but the Hidden Pivot at 129.95 looked too juicy to pass up.
A Hidden Pivot resistance at 108.33 equivalent to the rally target I’ve identified in Apple, and the same caveats apply if you should decide to short the stock. If Big Blue gets by that number, however, look for a follow-through to 110.57, another Hidden Pivot that would be worth shorting.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Friday
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This Just In... for Friday
The earnings that banks have been reporting lately are about as honest as the numbers disseminated by Bernie Madoff’s accountant. Since blatant lies about the health of the banks are sustaining the bear rally that began in early March, it’s important that we understand what is really going on. Here’s a good place to start – an article by Trace Mayer that fleshes out some egregious deceptions being foisted on the public. Click on the link below to access his report:
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
One More Rally Could End It
by Rick Ackerman on May 1, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 1 comment
Our 129.95 target caught the spike top in Goldman yesterday within two cents, but it remains to be seen whether that will be it for the stock’s sensational bear-market run. That’s a crucial concern for investors, since, if Goldman shares have completed their death rattle, then so has the mania that has driven the broad averages higher since early March. Some readers may recall that the stock market’s bear squeeze began with an announcement of bogus earnings by Citigroup at that time. All of the big banks have followed suit with their own dubious boasts of profits, including a $4.6 billion gain booked » Read the full article