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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
The June contract is taking its sweet time getting to a 934.20 target that should have been a piece of cake. Still, there are no troubling sign of weakness, and so we should continue to presume in favor of the bulls. If this tiresome consolidation eventually develops enough thrust to reach the 934.20 pivot, there would be yet another to overcome at 938.80. This is not meant to suggest that Gold’s potential is limited; to the contrary, we should be prepared to see the futures pulverize these minor resistance points if and when bullion is ready to move. We expect this will occur when it has become quite clear that the bear rally in stocks begun in early March has run its course.
Yesterday’s selling lacked the kind of ferocity that can lighten the patient bear’s heart, so we should start the day with modest expectations for any follow-through. As of 6:15 p.m., a minor downtrend pointed to 901.00, a Hidden Pivot support that you could bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight at 899.75. Night owls can use a peak at 911.00 made on the way down to signal a bullish turn, albeit a minor one. It would take somewhat more — specifically, a print at 920.25 — to turn the hourly chart back to bullish, but if the futures make it up to that threshold, the rally would be warning shorts of a frustrating week ahead. ______ UPDATE (2:27 a.m.): Cancel the bid, since there are too many minor downtrends to play with. The so-far overnight low at 903.50 is the byproduct of one of them: A=914.50 at 2:55 p.m. Monday, 5-minute chart.
Natural Gas futures have been on quite a tear lately, but the rally will face its first challenge in the form of a Hidden Pivot resistance at 4.485 (basis July). The pivot lies not far above current levels and should contain the move for at least an hour or two. If not and the futures blow right past it, take it is a sign that more strength is coming.
The September 84-May 84 spread that we hold four times is an easy exit right now for around 4.20, which would yield a theoretical gain of $160. That would hardly be worth the effort, so I’ll suggest waiting until you can come away with at least 4.40, for a profit of about $240. Closing out the position for that sum should be quite do-able if the Diamonds get within 15-20 cents of the 84 strike today.
The rally is coming off a low that exceeded an important midpoint support at 83.45, so our expectations are low. That said, I should note that my friend Bob Hoye is now bullish on the dollar and thinks that its strength in the weeks and months ahead will be a significant factor in the next, hellish phase of economic and financial decline. We’ll take this up in greater detail later, but suffice it to say, I am looking for a potentially important low at 80.05, with possible strength in the dollar that would unsettle many leveraged bets currently propping the financial system.
From just above a predicted low at 119^10, the futures have now rallied to within a whisker of our first important rally target, 121^28. Someone in the chat room reported booking a $400 profit on a long position taken near the lows, but it would have required daring, not to mention cunning, to have extracted much more than that. The 121^28 target is no longer significant from a trading standpont, but we’ll be focused on it nonetheless, since an easy breach would shorten the odds of another leg up.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Tuesday
The June contract is taking its sweet time getting to a 934.20 target that should have been a piece of cake. Still, there are no troubling sign of weakness, and so we should continue to presume in favor of the bulls. If this tiresome consolidation eventually develops enough thrust to reach the 934.20 pivot, there would be yet another to overcome at 938.80. This is not meant to suggest that Gold’s potential is limited; to the contrary, we should be prepared to see the futures pulverize these minor resistance points if and when bullion is ready to move. We expect this will occur when it has become quite clear that the bear rally in stocks begun in early March has run its course.
This Just In... for Tuesday
The June contract is taking its sweet time getting to a 934.20 target that should have been a piece of cake. Still, there are no troubling sign of weakness, and so we should continue to presume in favor of the bulls. If this tiresome consolidation eventually develops enough thrust to reach the 934.20 pivot, there would be yet another to overcome at 938.80. This is not meant to suggest that Gold’s potential is limited; to the contrary, we should be prepared to see the futures pulverize these minor resistance points if and when bullion is ready to move. We expect this will occur when it has become quite clear that the bear rally in stocks begun in early March has run its course.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
High End Homes Won’t Evade Crash
by Rick Ackerman on May 12, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 11 comments
Will homes maintain their value best in expensive neighborhoods, where homeowners presumably are not under the gun to sell or even to make mortgage payments? I’ve argued the opposite – that in percentage terms, high-end homes are likely to fall the hardest as the nation’s real estate crash runs its course over the next 4-5 years. While it is true that the wealthy, most of whom own their homes outright, do not face jeopardy from mortgage lenders, they could find themselves on the ropes for other reasons, including the failure of a business or devastating investment losses. That could easily force the sale — for starters — of a vacation home, which would put price pressure on all of the other homes in the neighborhood. Keep in mind that prices are set at the margin and that $2 million homes in a high-end development all become $1.4 million homes overnight if just one of the homeowners is forced to sell in a hurry. » Read the full article