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COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
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Rick's Picks for Friday
Because the futures failed to create an impulse leg on the daily chart at the top of the last rally, we should look for the correction to come down to at least 113^05. That would represent a 0.618 retracement of the surge off last Thursday’s lows, but any lower would corroborate our suspicion of latent weakness (i.e., of a bear rally). Alternatively, a thrust exceeding 115^20 would turn the lesser charts bullish and give the futures a shot at, most immediately, 115^25; or as high as 117^09 if that number is exceeded on a closing basis.
After a promising thrust early in yesterday’s session, the futures squandered the opportunity with a move sideways that looked like timid consolidation for a push this morning to 928.50. That’s a Hidden Pivot resistance, and because the rally stalled within a single tick of its 921.75 midpoint sibling, I’ll recommend shorting 928.50 with a stop-loss as tight as 929.25. The trade will remain viable as long as the point ‘C’ low at 915.25 is not exceeded to the downside first.
If the futures fall, the first place where I would recommend aggressive bidding is at 920.70, a Hidden Pivot derived from the somewhat obscure but fetching pattern shown in the chart. Alternatively, it would take a pop to 945.10 – one tick above the look-to-the-left peak shown in the chart — to turn the lesser oontraday charts bullish (although not the hourly).
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Friday
The intraday charts are extremely muddled, suggesting a close match between bulls and bears at the moment. The former would gain the upper hand, however, if they can push TLT to 81.09 today.
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Behind BRIC’s Smile, a Scheme to Dump Dollar
by Rick Ackerman on June 19, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments