Monday, June 22, 2009

RIMM's sharp decline from just above 86 looks like it could go all the way to 69.13 before the stock finds traction.

Save some ammo, since Microcrap looks like it will be a good short if it makes it up to 25.34 a Hidden Pivot.  We have a small, losing put position from way back when, but re-shorting the stock at the target looks like a promising way to recoup the loss.

A move above Friday's 420.46 high would be bullish for the near term, since that number fell within 0.15 of a Hidden Pivot rally target visible on the intraday charts.

Friday's failure to push above a small peak at 115^03 recorded on the  way down a day earlier suggests weakness over the near term, although a pop today exceeding 115^20 would turn the minor trend back to bullish.  Short 114^14.5 with a very tight stop-loss if the opportunity arises.  Correction:  Sorry for the untradable misprint, for it was a short at 115^14.5 that I'd intended.

A dip to 68.65 today, or tomorrow at the latest, should be viewed as a bottom-fishing opportunity.

Silver looks quite vulnerable, having recently created a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. A fall into the high $12s is indicated for the near term, although a bounce from conventional support near 13.630 could slow or even reverse the decline.

All signs point moderately lower over the near-term, but there are too many Hidden Pivot supports to choose from to make for compelling bottom-fishing opportunities. If forced to choose the most attractive of the lot, I'd say _____. We'll make that our minimum downside objective for now, subject to negation by a rally today exceeding _____. That would be the most promising sign we've seen on the hourly chart in more than two weeks.

The futures appeared to be spasming their way down to  _____, a Hidden Pivot target, when time ran out on Friday. They have bounced so far from within two ticks of that number's midpoint sibling, _____, but any lower and we should infer that the target itself will be reached.  You can bottom-fish with a stop-loss at _____, assuming the point 'C' of the pattern (see inset) , _____, is not exceeded to the  upside. _______ UPDATE (1:17 a.m.): The futures were slithering higher Sunday night, threatening to surpass point 'C' of the minor downtrend. However, my gut feeling is that the rally is a fraud -- one with barely enough moxie to scare shorts on Monday's opening. That's because Friday's head-fake failed to create an impulse leg even on the lowly 15-minute chart.

  With the U.S. sinking hopelessly into a black hole of debt, and households facing an avalanche of tax hikes that will at best postpone the nation's day of bankruptcy, we are all hard-pressed at this point to see a way to a happy ending. Lo, along comes an anonymous e-mail that describes a way to solve everyone's debt problems painlessly. If you think the plan can work, I would urge you to forward it to your congressmen. But if you see a fatal flaw in the logic, please drop by the Rick's Picks forum to explain. The forum can be accessed by clicking on the word "Comments" under the headline on today's commentary.  Here's the magical plan to cure America's"Accounts Receivable Crisis":  "It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.  "Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town.  "He enters the only hotel, lays a 100-euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one.  "The hotel proprietor takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.  "The butcher takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay what he owes the pig farmer.  "The pig farmer takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to his supplier of feed and fuel.  "The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that, in these hard times, proffered her 'services' on credit.  "The prostitute take the 100-euro note and runs to the hotel to pay for the rooms she rented when she brought her clients there.  "The hotel proprietor