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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
The futures appeared to be spasming their way down to 907.75, a Hidden Pivot target, when time ran out on Friday. They have bounced so far from within two ticks of that number’s midpoint sibling, 913.75, but any lower and we should infer that the target itself will be reached. You can bottom-fish with a stop-loss at 907.75, assuming the point ’C’ of the pattern (see inset) , 919.75, is not exceeded to the upside. _______ UPDATE (1:17 a.m.): The futures were slithering higher Sunday night, threatening to surpass point ‘C’ of the minor downtrend. However, my gut feeling is that the rally is a fraud — one with barely enough moxie to scare shorts on Monday’s opening. That’s because Friday’s head-fake failed to create an impulse leg even on the lowly 15-minute chart. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:46 a.m.): Falling overnight, the futures took a 3.00-point bounce from 907.25, allowing profit-taking or profit-protection with a trailing stop. In either case, a small gain would have been easily achieved upon exit. A little more than an hour into Monday’s session, the futures looked bound for a minimum 879.75.
All signs point moderately lower over the near-term, but there are too many Hidden Pivot supports to choose from to make for compelling bottom-fishing opportunities. If forced to choose the most attractive of the lot, I’d say 911.30. We’ll make that our minimum downside objective for now, subject to negation by a rally today exceeding 945.00. That would be the most promising sign we’ve seen on the hourly chart in more than two weeks.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Monday
Silver looks quite vulnerable, having recently created a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. A fall into the high $12s is indicated for the near term, although a bounce from conventional support near 13.630 could slow or even reverse the decline.
A dip to 68.65 today, or tomorrow at the latest, should be viewed as a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Friday’s failure to push above a small peak at 115^03 recorded on the way down a day earlier suggests weakness over the near term, although a pop today exceeding 115^20 would turn the minor trend back to bullish. Short 114^14.5 with a very tight stop-loss if the opportunity arises. Correction: Sorry for the untradable misprint, for it was a short at 115^14.5 that I’d intended.
A move above Friday’s 420.46 high would be bullish for the near term, since that number fell within 0.15 of a Hidden Pivot rally target visible on the intraday charts.
Save some ammo, since Microcrap looks like it will be a good short if it makes it up to 25.34 a Hidden Pivot. We have a small, losing put position from way back when, but re-shorting the stock at the target looks like a promising way to recoup the loss.
RIMM’s sharp decline from just above 86 looks like it could go all the way to 69.13 before the stock finds traction.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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An Ingenious Plan to Pay All Debts
by Rick Ackerman on June 22, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 68 comments
With the U.S. sinking hopelessly into a black hole of debt, and households facing an avalanche of tax hikes that will at best postpone the nation’s day of bankruptcy, we are all hard-pressed at this point to see a way to a happy ending. Lo, along comes an anonymous e-mail that describes a way to solve everyone’s debt problems painlessly. If you think the plan can work, » Read the full article