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COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
If 70.93 has not been exceeded first, you can bottom-fish 67.69 with an initial stop-loss as tight a 10 cents, good through Tuesday. That’s the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the downtrend begun from 72.85 on June 19. Switch to a 25-cent trailing stop if 70.20 is reach on the bounce. Minimum objective: 70.65. _______ UPDATE: 70.93 was exceeded overnight, negating the trade. The new high created a new Hidden Pivot support at 68.05, but it is not suitable for bottom-fishing because it coincides with a visually important low made a couple of days earlier.
TLT is stealing up on an important resistance at 96.08. That’s a Hidden Pivot clearly visible on the hourly chart, and if it is exceeded on a closing basis, that would be telegraphing still more strength in the long bond. For now, we should regard 96.08 as a minimum objective, implying that long-term yields have further to fall before they get sticky.
The futures looked primedddddd for a thrust to 955.40 at yesterday’s close, although, as noted in the chat room, there are doubts about the sausage-y nature of the price pattern yielding that target. Even so, the fact that all three price coordinates — A, B and C — are single-bar beauties seems reason enough to overlook the pattern’s flaw and to simply go with appealing look of it. If this analysis is correct, crucial resistance lies at 941.50, the target’s midpoint sibling, and any pop above that number will be telegraphing a further rally of at least $14.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Friday
In night trading Thursday, Da Sleazeballs lacked the guts to push the futures above supply piled near 920 earlier in the week. In any case, a print today exceeding 924.25 would probably touch off a short-covering stampede that will carry into next week.
The rally begun on Tuesday from 13.595 looks like it will get to 14.255 before serious resistance impedes. We’d need to see a little better than that — specificially, a print at 14.460 — to be convinced this bull cyle has legs.
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Q2 Finale Offers Bears No Respite
by Rick Ackerman on June 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
The short-squeeze mania that sent stocks blithely higher yesterday reminded us that shares are likely to remain erratically buoyant at least until the end of the second quarter. “Rebalancing” has been the name of the game since the bear rally began in early March, and portfolio managers are unlikely to alter their allocation strategy with less than a week to go before they get their final “grades” for the quarter. Meanwhile, if there was » Read the full article