Monday, June 29, 2009

Double support lies at 68.05, since that is not only a Hidden Pivot but also the location of a retracement low made last week on the way north. If the futures close beneath the support, it would imply further slippage over the near term to as low as 64.81 is likely.

Signs point higher, although not with much enthusiasm. For the moment, we can use a pattern discernible on the hourly chart that projects to _____. Its associative midpoint is _____, so any decisive progress above that number should be regarded as evidence of the uptrend's vitality. 

Around 4:30 a.m., the E-Minis were in a modest short-squeeze, having recouped the seven-point loss they incurred during an earlier shakeout beneath Friday's lows. This strongly suggests DaSleazeballs are firmly in control, presumably capable of running the futures higher at will. Despite this, I wouldn't rely too heavily on the _____ rally target that pops out at the amateur pivoteer from the lesser charts.

Since Rick's Picks was launched nearly seven years ago as the successor to Black Box Forecasts, your editor has not taken a vacation lasting longer than a day or two.  Beginning on July 8, however, I will be gone for a full week so that I can enjoy a little summer with my family.  During my absence, two important additions will be implemented for your immediate benefit. The first will bring my mentor, Ira Tunik, into the forecasting loop.  If you are impressed with Hidden Pivots, just wait till you see what Ira brings to our bag of tricks. The literal payoff for subscribers will be in a beefed-up "Actionables" section.  Whither the Junior Miners? The second addition will be a weekly commentary from Chuck Cohen, one of the most knowledgeable investors I know in the precious metals world. Chuck is especially bullish on junior mining stocks, and that is where he will put his emphasis, including on specific plays in mining stocks and warrants.  His column will kick off on July 9 with a three-part series that will seek to explain why the bull market in bullion has yet to go ballistic.  Free Interactive Classes More immediately, beginning this morning, I will be offering free, hour-long remedial sessions for graduates of the Hidden Pivot course.  By limiting attendance to just a few students, the goal of these classes will be to provide an interactive forum in which seminar grads can receive a higher level of personal attention than is possible during the Wednesday morning sessions, which typically draw about 50 people.  Participation in these webinars will be by e-mail invitation, starting with May graduates and working backward in time.  See you in class!

From a friend who works in a local scientific lab comes word of the kind of economic stimulus that might have been better spent building, say, a truly world-class miniature golf course, or perhaps drilling for oil in the men's room of the county court house.  While either of these ventures might at least have created a few new jobs, the government has instead chosen to buy an MRI scanner for $1 million-plus and give it to a lab that has no budget to hire a technician to operate it. Our source notes that the lab already has an MRI machine and could urgently use some far less costly instruments, such as $50,000 spectrometers. But don't bother telling that to the feds, since they apparently are hell-bent on shoveling as much money as they can at high-tech factories that build super-pricey machines such as MRI scanners.   We've all heard stories about government waste, but in the days ahead, Americans had better brace themselves for stimulus stories so appalling they will make LBJ's mind-bogglingly wasteful Office of Economic Opportunity seem like the Manhattan Project in comparison. With the news media obsessing over each and every trivial sign of economic recovery, one could forget that The Government will continue to proffer tumbleweed and algae slime as long as it can pass them off as green shoots. This it does with the help of a credulous news media and a phalanx of vainglorious politicians more eager than ever in these hard times to assert that every dollar flowing into their respective congressional districts achieved nothing less than an economic miracle. All for the Tax Man In fact, like nearly all government spending, the huge sums that are being haphazardly poured into the maw of this Great Recession can only reward inefficiency and subsidize

Rick will be going on vacation soon and he has asked me to fill in with some suggestions as to touts and some other trading suggestions.   My trading system is one that has evolved over 40 years of trading the markets.  It is based upon Gann's measured move, some cycle work and an indicator that provides as assessment of pressure being applied to the various time frames.   It is the utilization of price action, time and pressure that should produce a successful result.   That is far as I am willing to go as to how the system works.  This is a test post and an introduction to what you will be seeing in the near future.  I will post a couple of ideas in the near future so that you can gather a little insight into my thought processes on how the markets work and what I think you can look forward to in the future.   good trading.  Ira.