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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
Crude has rallied nearly 8% in the last week, but I see no evidence on the daily chart that the surge is likely to continue. Rather, we find dueling impulse legs and therefore the likelihood that quotes are going to bog down in the 65-75 range for a while. The picture would turn very bullish, however, if a thrust were to breach the two look-to-the-left peaks shown in the chart. The higher lies at 79.03.
The rally died a couple of ticks shy of our 119^05.5 target yesterday, but I wouldn’t suggest shorting there if buyers get second wind this morning, since we nearly always prefer to initiate trades on the first pass. The futures are due for a rest, but it would be quite impressive if they were able to eke out a little more upside first. Ideally, they would pull back to at least 116^28 to recharge, then signal a new leg up with a booster rally of at least 1^11 points.
The chop-and-slop the last few days has rendered any Hidden Pivot targets that I might proffer useless, if not to say meaningless. I might be tempted to bottom-fish a swoon to 927.80 if it were to occur early in today’s session, but otherwise I’ll be expecting a labored ascent to 942.80 if that Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 940.00 gets brushed aside.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Tuesday
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SIDE BETS for Tuesday
There’s a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1.422 that you can attempt to short with a stop-loss as tight as 7 ticks. If the futures stall at 1.4192, that number could eventually become a launching pad.
The July contract is stealing up on a shortable rally target at 17.69. Use a stop-loss of 6-8 ticks if you play this one.
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Goldman Heating Up, but Will It Spread?
by Rick Ackerman on June 30, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 6 comments
We thought it would be a good time to look in on our favorite bellwether, Goldman Sachs (GS), since the extraordinarily well-connected banking firm’s shares have been sharply on the rise lately. As long as this is the case, it makes a stock market selloff most unlikely. GS has rapidly emerged from a funk after having spent nearly a month in purgatory – its penance for a wilding spree that that culminated a penny above an important » Read the full article