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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
Our favorite bellwether for financial-sector sleaze and bear-rally delusions bucked a turgid market yesterday to close $3.14 higher on the day. Is this the start of a major rally? I strongly doubt it, since the would-be impulse thrust that occurred from June 23-30 failed to get past the stock’s earlier recovery high at 151.25. Although I cannot offer a one-size-fits-all short in advance, it shouldn’t be too difficult to attempt it if you initiate the trade on a minor-chart, bearish impulse legs occurring anywhere between these levels and 151. The idea is to use “camouflage” so that even if the stock reverses and moves higher, you will make money or do no worse than break whenyou are stopped out. For timely tips on this, try the chat room, where there is nearly always sufficient expertise to craft a winning strategy of this sort. This could be a home run, and that’s why I’m suggesting that you make the effort in my possible absence. (RA)
The E-mini did what it was supposed to do today. It closed the opening gap in accordance with classic technical analysis theory. There is still downside pressure being applied to the daily chart. If you look at the chart you will find lines in 3 different colors. They define price action on three different price cycles. The red lines show a long cycle that is still in a down move with one price objective acting as resistance. The black line is an intermediate cycle showing that there are still upside targets for the retracement up without voiding the long term down move. The blue lines are the short cycle that shows my price objective 2 along with the target for the move down, your D. The price levels are noted on the chart. After this rally that closed the opening gap, price would have to go through 884 in order to restart the move down. Your P level would be 873. 896 is the second price objective for this move up and it should act as temporary resistance for a move higher. The target, D, for this move up is currently 901. (Ira Tunik)
As noted in today’s commentary, we should set the bar at 966.80 to avoid a false bullish signal. A thrust touching that number would turn the daily chart bullish, most convincingly so if the rally leg doesn’t correct for more than a day after exceeding the lower peak at 949.00 (#1) shown in the chart. The bearish scenario should be equally straightforward: a test of lows made in April, respectively, near 880 and/or 960. More immediately, the first hint of a potentially bullish turn would come today at 936.40. That would create a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart. (RA)
The bonds are in limbo right now. On the daily chart, price would have to go through 116-19 and then P would be 113-29. For the up move to continue price would have to go through 118-26 and then the P would be 119-03 and the longer cycle price objectives remain the same as yesterday. There is still downside pressure being applied to the charts and the 119-04 level continues to act as resistance. The night session could carry price down to the 118-18 with a D of 118-00. (IT)
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Tuesday
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SIDE BETS for Tuesday
There is a hidden pivot support area at 30.80 which Caterpillar tried to reach Monday. Below it, the next support areas are 26.65 and 26.42. A rally attempt would encounter crucial resistance at 35.80, but above that number the next Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 40.63. Most immediately, there are lesser impediments at 31.93 and 32.11 (IT)
Update: It appears that there should be some support for price at 30.20 and then 28.45. For price to start a retracement higher it would ahve to go through 31.30. Max Pain: 35
The $12 downside target in today’s commentary is vague, but we can calculate a precise target at 12.395 using the hourly chart and, for point ‘A’, a peak at 15.575 recorded on June 11. That should be regarded as a minimum downside objective for the next 4-7 days, and although a tradable bounce should be expected, some visually obvious supports down near 12 are likely to exert strong magnetism. (RA)
Most signs point lower, but the value of any bearish Hidden Pivot targets I could provide is overshadowed by some visually compelling supports associated with prior lows. The most obvious of them lies at 60.30, recorded in late May, so we’ll use that as our minimum downside target for the near term. Any lower and the futures would likely find themselves groping their way down to 57.57 in search of traction. That price is equal to an important low recorded in mid-May. (RA)
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Lower Bullion Prices Worth Your Patience
by Rick Ackerman on July 7, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 2 comments
We told you last week to wait for better prices if you’re planning on buying gold bullion. That is still the case, although it looks like it may not be long before the promised bargains arrive. A week ago, with Comex August Gold trading for around 824, we projected a minimum downside target of 899; yesterday the futures settled at 924.60 after making a two-week low at 920.30 . Lest you get the impression that gold sat still in the interim, we » Read the full article