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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
The E-Mini S&P poked its snout above June’s peaks yesterday, daring bears to stand firm. For our part, we’d prefer to step aside while the futures make their way toward 998.50, a Hidden Pivot from the weekly chart that will serve as a minimum upside objective for the near term. Please note that that would fall a smidgen shy of the 1002.25 print (see inset) we’d said was needed to refresh the bullish trend on the longer-term charts.
The futures traded up to 89.23 on the opening bar yesterday, stopping out a Pick of the Day short at 89.21 for a tiny loss. (If you were slow to react, or if you used a slightly wider stop, you could conceivably have come away with a profit, since the futures never traded above 89.27 and spent nearly the entire day below that number. The intraday low was 88.10.) The fact that the upside target was exceeded, albeit only slightly, suggests still higher prices are coming. If so, look for a pop today to 90.65. a Hidden Pivot that you can try shorting with a stop-loss at 90.71. You’ll be on your own if the order fills, but don’t hesitate to nail down a partial profit on a pullback of as little as 15 cents.
In after-hours trading Tuesday, AAPL had somewhat exceeded the 157.53 Hidden Pivot that we were using as a minimum upside target. The indicated high as of around 9 p.m. EDT was 158.40, which if correct would imply the rally is likely to continue to a target of higher degree. The logical number thereof would be 170.33, so we’ll use it as our new objective. It implies an amazingly steep ascent and an ABC pattern with a trajectory that I cannot recall seeing before. ______ UPDATE (1:54 p.m.): During this morning’s tutorial session, we turned up a new target at 159.88 that not only looks likely to be reached, but also short-able, stop 160.01.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Wednesday
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SIDE BETS for Wednesday
A Hidden Pivot at 959.90 is still my minimum upside target for the near term, but a pullback to 945.10 Tuesday night can be bought with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. If it’s hit, look for the selling to continue to exactly 940.30 (which also can be bottom-fished, stop 939.90). _______ UPDATE (1:08 a.m.): The action has turned too sloppy to read, other than on the very lesser charts. My hunch is that tonight’s gratuitous spasms will be replicated on a larger scale as the day wears on.
A print at 119^02 is needed by no later than Thursday to sustain the rally’s momentum. That would refresh the bullish impulse on the hourly chart — a key requirement for any rally that is going to develop “legs”.
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Fed Throttles Back, Having Achieved Little
by Rick Ackerman on July 22, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 3 comments
The stock market carved out yet another bowl-shaped formation on the intraday charts yesterday, making everyone who bought the dip a lucky winner. Stocks have swooned in four of the last five sessions and closed higher for six consecutive days, but yesterday’s swoon was a little more dramatic than the others. Some attributed the selloff portion of the day to mounting concerns that President Obama’s tax proposals will soak not only the “rich,” but the middle class. Whatever misgivings investors may have had about this were » Read the full article