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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
We deconstructed the Mini-Dow’s hourly chart during yesterday’s morning’s tutorial session, discovering that this vehicle’s recent high at 9114 fell close enough to a longstanding rally target at 9128 to warrant our close attention. The weekly chart yields a slightly different perspective, but one that could prove useful nonetheless. I’ve flagged the two relevant targets at, respectively, 9168 and 9476 and consider them high-odds objectives. Moreover, if the first is exceeded on a closing basis or by more than 15-20 points intraday, odds of a move to the second would shorten significantly. Since we never want to chisel these numbers in stone, we’ll also be paying close attention to any signs that the bear rally may be dying. To be more specific, this would occur with the creation of a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart.
The futures were mucking about in a narrow range early Thursday morning, seemingly reluctant to traverse the remaining distance to a 921.50 target broached in the chat room. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 924.70, a midpoint support that will remain valid as long as 931.10 is not touched first. ______ UPDATE (8:08 a.m.): Shifting to the December contract, if you drop down to the 5-minute chart, you’ll see why the overnight rally lacked real guts. Notice how its peak at 937.00 failed by a hair to take out two look-to-the-left peaks made on the way down yesterday around 9:10 a.m.
A potential camouflaged entry signal was developing early Thursday morning, based on the pattern show in in the accompanying chart. What is required to trigger a buying opportunity is a gentle probing above peak #1 (1608.00) that does surpass peak #2 (1609.00) without first pulling back the required 9.25 points (i.e., 0.618 of a k-A segment measuring 14.75 points). I usually don’t provide such abstruse details, but the trade has home-run potential if it meets the rather narrow set of parameters required, and I therefore wanted to provide enough information to allow experienced pivoteers to track it’s development in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (7:51 a.m. EDT): An overnight rally blew our camouflage opportunity to smithereens with an initial thrust to 1612.75 that easily exceeded both peaks shown in the chart. DaBoyz having failed to conceal the eagerness of buyers even when relatively few were watching, we should brace for more short-covering later this morning.
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SIDE BETS for Thursday
The dollar has stepped back from cliff’s edge with a moderate rally now entering its third day. However, the thrust would need to touch 83.23, five percent above current levels, to put the daily chart in bullish gear.
After giving up most of the substantial gains achieved a couple of weeks ago, UNG is struggling for traction. The effort would gain credibility with a push exceeding 12.77 today, but otherwise we should look for a re-test of multiyear lows recorded earlier this month just below 12.
This Just In... for Thursday
The bloom is off the rose in Dubai, where now-jobless expatriate workers are causing a plague of bounced checks. Click here for the full story at TimesOnline.
With yesterday’s takedown in gold, the bullion bankers showed that they eat big trading funds for breakfast. Click here for a link to Dan Norcini’s think-piece posted at Jim Sinclair’s site.
Our favorite cycles expert, Peter Eliades, is getting the second-highest overbought readings in 40 years from his New 10 TRIN indicator. However, the conclusion to be drawn from this is not so obvious as you might expect. Here’s Peter: ”It would seem simple to say that such a reading must be marking a market top if it is the second most overbought reading of the past 40 years. But as we have pointed out so often, extreme overbought readings on virtually any momentum-type indicator can turn out to be bullish rather than bearish. In fact, if we trace back all the readings on the S&P 500 New 10 TRIN lower than .40 over the past 37 years, almost all of them occurred soon after important bottoms were formed and almost all of them marked low risk territory for the market. They occurred in October 1982, January 1987, January 1988, May 1990 (this was one of the few readings that was registered near a market top), October 2003, November 2004, and the current readings in July 2009.”
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Just Buy the Dips to Make Big Money
by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 3 comments
The lazy drift of stocks has become almost too boring to watch, although we dare not avert our eyes for fear of missing Wall Street’s next wilding spree. During the last four sessions, the broad averages have hit bottom early in the day after easing lower overnight. In each instance, the Dow Industrials were down about a hundred points before the selling dried up. Then, four hours worth of see-saw action ensued. Finally, in the last hour or so, with » Read the full article