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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
There are numerous bullish patterns at work in various time frames, so perhaps we should expect to see the rally fail near these levels (i.e., around $74). If crude confounds contrarians and breaks loose, however, there would be little to stop the September contract below 75.58, a Hidden Pivot. Once above that number the closest logical target would be 78.77. _______ UPDATE (10:50 a.m.): The futures are falling today, and so we might look for a tradable bounce near 71.26 in the DECEMBER contract. That’s a clear Hidden Pivot.
A pop to 963.00 is possible if buyers dominate, and a close above that Hidden Pivot midpoint would indicate 975.90. However, as of early Tuesday evening, the futures had slightly exceeded the 944.90 midpoint support of a down-ABC begun at Monday’s high, 985.50. If the pivot gives way, that could be telegraphing more slippage to as low as 933.50.
Our bearish position was short-lived, since we scratched September 95 puts acquired a day earlier when the Diamonds hit our stop-loss early in the session. There were two more spots where we could try to intercept — at 96.00 or 96.69 – but they come from an ABC pattern that looked a little too obvious when it began to take shape yesterday (with targets, respectively, at 96.09 and 96.78). Better to get long for the pop to the higher number, assuming it comes. This would perhaps be best accomplished using “camouflage” in the first 15 minutes of Wednesday’s session, so I’ll make that an assignment for pivoteers who are in the chat room then.
Yesterday’s spike high poked above a midpoint resistance on the hourly chart at 9605, so its ‘D’ sibling at 9768 will be in play as a rally target as long as 9441 has not been exceeded to the downside. If it is exceeded, however, your coordinates for a new rally target would be A=9249, B=9576, and C=[value of new low].
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Wednesday
A bullish target analogous to the one given for December Gold lies at 15.515, and it should be considered a done deal if the futures can close above its sibling midpoint, 14.505.
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A Timely Apocalypse Could ‘Save’ Debtors
by Rick Ackerman on August 26, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 12 comments
If nothing else can stop a runaway stock market, there’s always the astrologers. Pick any day of the year, and odds are it’s circled in red on some star-gazing guru’s End of Days calendar. The higher stocks go, the louder their predictions of disaster. Not that we haven’t joined the chorus of despair ourselves from time to time. How else is a guru supposed to gin up business during the dog days of summer? At the moment, the sexiest prediction out there is the Mayan apocalypse slated in 2012. Perhaps the Mayans would have pushed » Read the full article