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Global Middle Class Glimmers in Distance

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 2:53 am GMT · 8 comments

Recently, I told the story here of Louis Piro, a Mountain View barber who made millions by plowing every dollar he could save into the shares of growing companies that paid generous dividends. Following is another uncharacteristically bullish column that I wrote for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner around that time, in the late 1990s. It ran under the headline “New Global Middle Class Fuels Stocks,” and its thesis is that U.S. multinationals stood to benefit hugely from the rapid rise of an Asian middle class.

This scenario was delayed by the collapse of the Thai baht in 1997 and the severe Pacific Rim recession that followed. It now looks like it will be delayed even longer by a looming :

Second Great Depression in the U.S.  You can judge for yourself whether such optimism is still warranted

Petronas-small3

U.S. stocks have been in a scorching, vertical climb for months, confounding the bears and effortlessly vaulting the immediate expectations of the most ardent bulls. What factors might account for this powerful rally? Could there be forces at work besides the steady » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday

Night Baseball

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:26 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Hidden Pivot Calculator   Education Page
All Picks By Issue:

ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1019.25)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 3:34 am GMT

The futures are off a couple of points Monday evening, but they’ve already divulged buying interest by trading a full point above the 1022.00 midpoint resistance show in the chart. If they should break decisively above it on Tuesday, that would signal upside potential over the near term to as high as 1053.00 – equivalent to a 250-point rally in the Dow.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:998.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 3:58 am GMT

With the G-20 meeting coming up in Pittsburgh at month’s end, a breakout by gold above $1000 right now would be about as welcome as an elephant stampede at a garden party. It should therefore be an interesting month, assuming the central-bank conspiracy to suppress gold prices is operating at full strength in the weeks ahead.  I’ll stick with the 1074.50 minimum upside target nonetheless, but I’m making no guarantees above that Hidden Pivot.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:77.99)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:09 am GMT

Considering that the Dollar Index broke down decisively in early August by smashing the watershed low at 77.69 recorded nearly nine months earlier, the action recently has been pretty copacetic. It suggests that the dollar is being easily supported at these levels, but only because there are no sellers bold enough to challenge the central banks’ resolve. If and when that happens — signaled, perforce, by a two-day close beneath 77.54 – the futures will be on their way down to at least 75.57, the nearest Hidden Pivot of significance on the daily chart.  Otherwise, it’ll take a pop to 89.90 to turn this chart bullish for the first time since last February.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:94.50)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:14 am GMT

We took a small speculative position on Friday’s close, buying four September 93 puts (DAVUO)  for 0.86 apiece. I’ll recommend closing them out at-the-market if the Diamonds are trading 94.60 or higher an hour into the session. Otherwise, you can offer two to close for 1.16, day order. _______ UPDATE (11:22 a.m.):  The post-Labor Day surprise we’d anticipated was not to be, so we exited our puts for 0.63, realizing a trading loss of $92 on the position.  The fact that the market passed up a perfect chance to  catch investors with their pants down and is headed higher on the first day of the new season suggests that it will continue in bullish mode for a while, at least.  If we are to look now for an ”October Surprise,” the trick will be to determine which would be the more surprising: a melt-up or a melt-down?

$+SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:15.865)

by Rick Ackerman on October 31, 2014 4:15 am GMT

More downside over the near-term to at least 15.865 (see inset) looks very likely, so traders should position from the short side. The opportunity may be past by morning, but night owls can use an entry trigger on the lesser charts (i.e., 5-minute bar or less) to get aboard. I’ve highlighted the relevant ABC pattern, which appears at the rightmost edge of the chart. ______ UPDATE (9:23 a.m. EDT): Anyone who got short as advised made a pile of money overnight without much stress.  The futures have plummeted and are currently down about 63 cents, having recorded a so-far low at 15.635 that exceeded our target by by 23 cents.

$AMZN – Amazon (Last:299.07)

by Rick Ackerman on October 31, 2014 3:58 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:173.48)

by Rick Ackerman on October 29, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1144.22)

by Rick Ackerman on October 29, 2014 12:02 am GMT

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$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2490)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1224.60)

by Rick Ackerman on October 23, 2014 1:56 am GMT

The failure of Tuesday’s rally to reach the modest, 1260.30 Hidden Pivot target we were using as a minimum upside objective is not exactly a sign of robust health. The target remains theoretically viable because the point ‘C’ low at 1232.00 with which it is associated is still intact. However, the hourly chart has swung bearishly impulsive as a result of the ratcheting, two-day sell-off from the recent high at 1255.60.  Short-term downside potential is to the 1232.30 target shown. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily breached, however, it would suggest more sellers are waiting in the wings. Alternatively, the futures would need to surpass 1246.30 without having first touched the 1239.30 midpoint support (see inset) to turn the hourly chart short-term bullish. _______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:01 p.m. EDT): I expect the next leg down to reach the 1216.40 Hidden Pivot support shown.  Alternatively, a print today at 1236.30 would give bulls a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (October 29, 1:23 p.m.): 1202.10 is my new downside target — a Hidden Pivot support identified during this morning’s weekly tutorial session. _______ UPDATE: An 1125.00 target broached yesterday during my regular interview with Al Korelin should suffice to keep you out of trouble. I hadn’t imagined the futures would get halfway there overnight.

$+AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:107.34)

by Rick Ackerman on October 22, 2014 8:18 am GMT

Apple’s gap yesterday through the 100.41 midpoint resistance (see inset) strongly implies that its D sibling at 105.64 will be reached. Although a pullback to the midpoint should be treated as a belated buying opportunity, I wouldn’t suggest chasing the stock higher. That said, the four labeled peaks are tailor-made for the Hidden Pivot trader who can employ the ‘camouflage’ technique for getting long. If you understand why, you should go for it! _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m.): The broad averages pulled Apple back down to earth yesterday when the stock tried to go opposite weakness that surfaced around mid-session. This runs flatly counter to my speculative idea that AAPL might pull the broad averages higher. That’s still possible, since yesterday’s 104.11 peak fell 53 cents of a rally target that remains valid in theory. However, we’ll eschew speculation for now and simply watch to see whether  the 102.44 Hidden Pivot support holds (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (October 23, 1:59 p.m.): Apple has rebounded sharply today, off a 102.90 correction low to a so-far high of 105.05 that’s 59 cents shy of our target. Most longs should have been exited by now. ______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:07 p.m.): Friday’s high at 105.49 came within 0.15 of the target flagged above.  Bulls can continue to hold small long positions for a swing at the fences, but I’d suggest tying your shares to a stop-loss based on a downtrending impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Currently, that would imply stopping yourself out if an uncorrected fall touches 104.52 _______ UPDATE (October 28, 8:44 p.m.): Still long? Be alert at 107.08, a Hidden Pivot target that looks all but certain to be reached but which could stop the rally cold. You should tighten your trailing stop there in any case. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:25 p.m.): The rally has shredded some challenging Hidden Pivots, but let’s see if it can bully its way past the 109.07 target shown. In any case, it is my minimum upside objective for the near term.


SIDE BETS for Tuesday

UNG – U.S. Natural Gas Fund (Last: 9.59)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:20 am GMT

Look at Friday’s rally on a daily chart before you get too excited.  This glue horse would need to print 10.76 today to give bears reason to be nervous. Upside potential for the moment looks to be only 9.74, but bulls would get a recharge if they can push that Hidden pivot resistance aside.


This Just In... for Tuesday

The One Trading Myth You Should Know…

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 8:45 pm GMT

From one Brian Heyliger, editor of Market Trigger Alert, I received a promotional letter — “The One Myth About Trading You Should Know” — that deserves to be widely shared. It offers some very useful tips on how to get your mind right for trading regardless of what system you use :

I want to tell you something about trading you won’t hear often…

Trading has nothing to do with indicators and everything to do with you.

Let me explain…

The easiest things to learn are indicators and setups, but they have nothing to do with trading. You can memorize them, you can buy them, you can even program your computer to alert you when they occur. But the Achilles Heel of trading is this: YOU!

There are numerous sites and gurus touting their products as the “Holy Grail” of making money in the markets. “Just buy my trading system and you’ll make a million.” Well, that’s not actually true, because winning, stand-alone trading system won’t work if you are broken…

To trade a system successfully – whether it’s something you’ve purchased or developed yourself – you need to have the correct mindset.

The Paradox of 
’Holy Grail’ Systems

This may surprise you, but you can learn a perfectly good trading system, trade it, and lose money, while someone else trading the very same system makes a fortune.

The only difference is between the winner the loser is the person trading – that’s it! The traders who lose simply aren’t following the rules of the trading system they designed (or purchased), unlike the winners.

The key to making a system work is developing the discipline to follow the instructions. This is the hardest part about trading. Let’s illustrate this with an example …

You just lost $1,000 on the last trade and you’re unhappy. That loss is bothering you and you’ve begun to doubt yourself (and the system you’re using). Is the system really effective any more? Have the market conditions changed so this system no longer works? Do I need a new system? These and other thoughts will be running through your mind just as…

Your system tells you it’s time to buy. Guess what — losing traders won’t buy! Their emotions are so drained from losing $1,000, they just don’t have the emotional capital left to enter the next trade – which very well might be a big winner.

The winning traders remain confident even after a loss. They only doubts are to evaluate whether or not they truly followed the system during that loss, and (if not) how they must be more disciplined to ensure more accurate – and profitable – trading. If they did follow the system and lost, they chalk it up to ‘the law of averages’ and look forward to the next trade which has a high probability of being a winner.

You see, a winning trading system is a profit generating business. The more business you can do, the more profit you can generate. Sure, you have some ‘overhead’ (i.e. losses) but in a profit generating business the more ‘customers’ (i.e. valid trade signals) the better.

Three Rules For 
Better Trading

Here are few things you can do to help you manage your trades better, and not succumb to the emotional drain that will keep you from taking the next trade:

Don’t look at daily profits, look at them over time. Who cares if you lose $1,000 today, you could make $2,000 tomorrow. That’s still $500 a day over the two days!
Plan for losses. They will come, but know they’re only temporary.
Plan your trades and trade your plan. This is the most important part of trading. If you start the day with a plan, but don’t follow it, you might as well throw darts at the Wall Street Journal.

When trading a system, constantly remind yourself you’re playing the odds. That means you’re going to lose some days, but if the system you’re trading is profitable, you’ll win more often than you lose and make a killing along the way.

A Cautionary Note

That said, there are a lot of systems out there that just plain don’t work.

And I’ll tell you, the majority of them don’t. I know because I’ve tried them.

So here’s the pattern: find a system that seems to work, backtest it, and become comfortable that it actually does work before you put a single dollar on the table. If you want to study one thing about a system, study the losers, not the winners. Then everything else will fall into place.

I have a system I’ve designed specifically for this purpose – to help new traders make it to six-figure status very quickly. It’s designed to make you the most amount of money and offer the smallest learning curve of any trading system out there. The rules are very black and white, and very easy to learn.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on November 13, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.