December 18th, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

Global Middle Class Glimmers in Distance

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 2:53 am GMT · 8 comments

Recently, I told the story here of Louis Piro, a Mountain View barber who made millions by plowing every dollar he could save into the shares of growing companies that paid generous dividends. Following is another uncharacteristically bullish column that I wrote for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner around that time, in the late 1990s. It ran under the headline “New Global Middle Class Fuels Stocks,” and its thesis is that U.S. multinationals stood to benefit hugely from the rapid rise of an Asian middle class.

This scenario was delayed by the collapse of the Thai baht in 1997 and the severe Pacific Rim recession that followed. It now looks like it will be delayed even longer by a looming :

Second Great Depression in the U.S.  You can judge for yourself whether such optimism is still warranted

Petronas-small3

U.S. stocks have been in a scorching, vertical climb for months, confounding the bears and effortlessly vaulting the immediate expectations of the most ardent bulls. What factors might account for this powerful rally? Could there be forces at work besides the steady » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Night Baseball

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:26 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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All Picks By Issue:

ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1019.25)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 3:34 am GMT

The futures are off a couple of points Monday evening, but they’ve already divulged buying interest by trading a full point above the 1022.00 midpoint resistance show in the chart. If they should break decisively above it on Tuesday, that would signal upside potential over the near term to as high as 1053.00 – equivalent to a 250-point rally in the Dow.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:998.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 3:58 am GMT

With the G-20 meeting coming up in Pittsburgh at month’s end, a breakout by gold above $1000 right now would be about as welcome as an elephant stampede at a garden party. It should therefore be an interesting month, assuming the central-bank conspiracy to suppress gold prices is operating at full strength in the weeks ahead.  I’ll stick with the 1074.50 minimum upside target nonetheless, but I’m making no guarantees above that Hidden Pivot.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:77.99)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:09 am GMT

Considering that the Dollar Index broke down decisively in early August by smashing the watershed low at 77.69 recorded nearly nine months earlier, the action recently has been pretty copacetic. It suggests that the dollar is being easily supported at these levels, but only because there are no sellers bold enough to challenge the central banks’ resolve. If and when that happens — signaled, perforce, by a two-day close beneath 77.54 – the futures will be on their way down to at least 75.57, the nearest Hidden Pivot of significance on the daily chart.  Otherwise, it’ll take a pop to 89.90 to turn this chart bullish for the first time since last February.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:94.50)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:14 am GMT

We took a small speculative position on Friday’s close, buying four September 93 puts (DAVUO)  for 0.86 apiece. I’ll recommend closing them out at-the-market if the Diamonds are trading 94.60 or higher an hour into the session. Otherwise, you can offer two to close for 1.16, day order. _______ UPDATE (11:22 a.m.):  The post-Labor Day surprise we’d anticipated was not to be, so we exited our puts for 0.63, realizing a trading loss of $92 on the position.  The fact that the market passed up a perfect chance to  catch investors with their pants down and is headed higher on the first day of the new season suggests that it will continue in bullish mode for a while, at least.  If we are to look now for an ”October Surprise,” the trick will be to determine which would be the more surprising: a melt-up or a melt-down?

$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1197.50)

by Rick Ackerman on December 17, 2014 12:04 am GMT

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$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1966.00)

by Rick Ackerman on December 17, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Tuesday’s tedious histrionics missed my targeted low at 1955.00, but this Hidden Pivot support/resistance should still be used as a place to bottom-fish. Don’t expect it to work as precisely as our targets usually do, though, since these proprietary swing points tend to grow a bit vague after they’ve been ‘used’ once. Think of this one as a logical place for a price reversal to occur, and therefore an opportune spot for initiating a trade. The camouflage entry technique will work best here, especially since relatively few other traders know the support exists.

Additional caution is warranted because the scheduled release of FOMC minutes could send the futures fleetingly outside of our allotted bands. My hunch is that ‘everyone’ has placed a bet on volatility, and that as a result, the stock market will be relatively subdued. If you’re planning on ‘jackpotting’ here, my recommendation is to leg into a strangle, selling puts/calls at swing highs/lows that align with clear Hidden Pivot targets. My initial guidance on this references the 1947.25 target shown, but this Hidden Pivot may prove more useful for night owls than for those who will be trading the regular session.

$JPM – JP Morgan Chase (Last:58.43)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 6:04 am GMT

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$USH15 – March T-Bonds (Last:145^29)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 5:29 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:22.06)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 4:03 am GMT

Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely.  I’m going to back up the truck myself — buying at either number or both, tightly stopped — and would do so not as a long-term play, but as a high-odds trade. Please note that although the 20.83 pivot has the potential to produce an important low, I’ve selected a chart that shows the alternative target at 17.30 so that you can judge for yourself how compelling it looks.  One further note:  Because yesterday’s plunge exceeded the previous bear-market low at 22.34 recorded on 11/5, it should have stopped out enough bulls to produce a spirited rally over the next day or two.  Under the circumstances, if such a rally fails to materialize, it would portend yet another wave of selling ahead.

$CLF15 – January Crude (Last:53.98)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2014 4:15 am GMT

Crude is getting kicked again Sunday night, although the January NYMEX contract is trading 85 cents off its low at the moment. The so-far low is 56.25, but I would expect the futures to get closer to my 55.43 target (see inset) before they attempt to rally in earnest. Night owls can try bottom-fishing using ‘camouflage’ nevertheless, but if you want to use a simpler, albeit riskier, strategy, you can bid 55.43, stop 55.34 for a single contract. I have difficulty imagining significantly more sinkage without a bounce from somewhere near here, but if the stop gets schmeissed, the next logical stop on the way down would be at 53.45, or 50.69 if any lower. However robust the bounce, assuming one comes, my bear-market target is still $31. The economic world would be a very different place at that point, and I don’t mean in a good way. _______ UPDATE (December 15, 10:39 p.m.): The 55.43 pivot is holding so far on a closing basis, having been exceeded intraday by 0.41 points. That’s more than I would have expected, but I still think we’ll see a strong rally from here, or from very near these levels, since the target is so clear and compelling. If not, and the futures continue their relentless plunge, the targets given above, 53.45 and thence 50,69, will obtain. Traders with no position, or those who are managing the risk of a short position, should note that the January contract was in an uptrend late Monday night that projected to exactly 56.13. You can find this target on the 15-minute chart using the following coordinates: a=55.17 (12/15 at 4:45 p.m. EST); b= 55.85 (6:45 p.m.); and c=55.45 (8:10 p.m.). This pattern looks reliable enough that we should infer more upside to come if 56.13 is exceeded by more 10-15 cents. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 9:33 a.m.): Crude fell this morning to a newe multiyear low at 53.60, just 15 cents from the target given above. If you caught the 1.16 bounce from the low, you should have taken a partial profit and secured what remains with an ‘impulsive stop-loss’.  The bounce is less than I might have expected, and if the low gets taken out we’ll likely be looking at more slippage to 50.69.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher.


SIDE BETS for Tuesday

UNG – U.S. Natural Gas Fund (Last: 9.59)

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 4:20 am GMT

Look at Friday’s rally on a daily chart before you get too excited.  This glue horse would need to print 10.76 today to give bears reason to be nervous. Upside potential for the moment looks to be only 9.74, but bulls would get a recharge if they can push that Hidden pivot resistance aside.


This Just In... for Tuesday

The One Trading Myth You Should Know…

by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2009 8:45 pm GMT

From one Brian Heyliger, editor of Market Trigger Alert, I received a promotional letter — “The One Myth About Trading You Should Know” — that deserves to be widely shared. It offers some very useful tips on how to get your mind right for trading regardless of what system you use :

I want to tell you something about trading you won’t hear often…

Trading has nothing to do with indicators and everything to do with you.

Let me explain…

The easiest things to learn are indicators and setups, but they have nothing to do with trading. You can memorize them, you can buy them, you can even program your computer to alert you when they occur. But the Achilles Heel of trading is this: YOU!

There are numerous sites and gurus touting their products as the “Holy Grail” of making money in the markets. “Just buy my trading system and you’ll make a million.” Well, that’s not actually true, because winning, stand-alone trading system won’t work if you are broken…

To trade a system successfully – whether it’s something you’ve purchased or developed yourself – you need to have the correct mindset.

The Paradox of 
’Holy Grail’ Systems

This may surprise you, but you can learn a perfectly good trading system, trade it, and lose money, while someone else trading the very same system makes a fortune.

The only difference is between the winner the loser is the person trading – that’s it! The traders who lose simply aren’t following the rules of the trading system they designed (or purchased), unlike the winners.

The key to making a system work is developing the discipline to follow the instructions. This is the hardest part about trading. Let’s illustrate this with an example …

You just lost $1,000 on the last trade and you’re unhappy. That loss is bothering you and you’ve begun to doubt yourself (and the system you’re using). Is the system really effective any more? Have the market conditions changed so this system no longer works? Do I need a new system? These and other thoughts will be running through your mind just as…

Your system tells you it’s time to buy. Guess what — losing traders won’t buy! Their emotions are so drained from losing $1,000, they just don’t have the emotional capital left to enter the next trade – which very well might be a big winner.

The winning traders remain confident even after a loss. They only doubts are to evaluate whether or not they truly followed the system during that loss, and (if not) how they must be more disciplined to ensure more accurate – and profitable – trading. If they did follow the system and lost, they chalk it up to ‘the law of averages’ and look forward to the next trade which has a high probability of being a winner.

You see, a winning trading system is a profit generating business. The more business you can do, the more profit you can generate. Sure, you have some ‘overhead’ (i.e. losses) but in a profit generating business the more ‘customers’ (i.e. valid trade signals) the better.

Three Rules For 
Better Trading

Here are few things you can do to help you manage your trades better, and not succumb to the emotional drain that will keep you from taking the next trade:

Don’t look at daily profits, look at them over time. Who cares if you lose $1,000 today, you could make $2,000 tomorrow. That’s still $500 a day over the two days!
Plan for losses. They will come, but know they’re only temporary.
Plan your trades and trade your plan. This is the most important part of trading. If you start the day with a plan, but don’t follow it, you might as well throw darts at the Wall Street Journal.

When trading a system, constantly remind yourself you’re playing the odds. That means you’re going to lose some days, but if the system you’re trading is profitable, you’ll win more often than you lose and make a killing along the way.

A Cautionary Note

That said, there are a lot of systems out there that just plain don’t work.

And I’ll tell you, the majority of them don’t. I know because I’ve tried them.

So here’s the pattern: find a system that seems to work, backtest it, and become comfortable that it actually does work before you put a single dollar on the table. If you want to study one thing about a system, study the losers, not the winners. Then everything else will fall into place.

I have a system I’ve designed specifically for this purpose – to help new traders make it to six-figure status very quickly. It’s designed to make you the most amount of money and offer the smallest learning curve of any trading system out there. The rules are very black and white, and very easy to learn.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on Monday, January 12, 2015. For more information, or to register, click here.