Yesterday morning, an hour into the new trading week, we covered a small short position in the Diamonds, booking a loss of $92 on some September put options. This speculative bet, initiated on the closing bell Friday, was inspired by a hunch that if Mr. Market really wanted to catch investors with their pants down, the Tuesday after Labor Day would be a perfect time to do it. Alas, even with news that should have been helpful in catalyzing a stock-market plunge, stocks trudged higher. The news concerned consumer credit, and it could have left no doubt about the dire condition of the American consumer. He in fact » Read the full article
The 1053.00 target given here yesterday remains valid, but the bullish case for the near term was weakened by the fact that all of yesterday’s action took place below a 1027.75 peak recorded on the way down a week ago. Because the plunge from that peak would have trapped many bulls, we should regard it as daunting if not impermeable. If the futures take a stab at it today, the effort should be considered ineffectual unless it exceeds the look-to-the-left peak at 1031.00 recorded on August 30.
Yesterday’s breakdown was serious, although I’d stipulated that DXY close for two consecutive days below 77.54 before we assume the worst. Tentatively, however, we’ll look for a quick drop to at least 76.05, or to 75.57, the Hidden Pivot given here originally, if any lower. My worst case number for the period preceeding the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh at month’s end is 72.93. My hunch is that such pronounced weakness in the dollar is unlikely ahead of the meeting, but if it comes, stocks are going to fall too, and steeply.
Silver’s most recent peak at 16.860 fell 8 cents shy of a clear Hidden Pivot at 16.940, so we should assume the December contract has at least a little further to go before it hits something solid. Position traders should consider lightening up, with the goal of replacing on the pullback any shares sold near the target. If the futures close above 16.940 for two consecutive days, or trade more than 10 cents above it intraday, that would be a very bullish sign going forward.
Yesterday’s patently spurious plunge should look more like a swoon by Wednesday mid-morning, when I expect gold will have recovered. The sell-off was very obviously caused by the nasty bull trap that ran stops placed slightly above a 1008.80 high made shortly after 4 a.m. In a bigger picture, the 1074.50 target given here earlier remains valid, although I should introduce another, lesser one at 1016.60 that looks capable of showing some stopping power. The less stopping power it displays, the more quickly and powerfully the next thrust is likely to develop.
I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.
Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares. But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.
From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence.
Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07. This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled. Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread. We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.
A minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 10.57 is the nearest impediment, but if UNG gets past it and a peak at 10.75 made in late August on the way down, it would be clearing the path for yet more upside. The implications will not affect the daily chart, however, until 16.27 is touched.