November 20th, 2014
Published Daily
HP Seminar Information page.
Weekly Commentary

Jubilant Traders Miss Another Ominous Sign

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 7 comments

Yesterday morning, an hour into the new trading week, we covered a small short position in the Diamonds, booking a loss of $92 on some September put options. This speculative bet, initiated on the closing bell Friday, was inspired by a hunch that if Mr. Market really wanted to catch investors with their pants down, the Tuesday after Labor Day would be a perfect time to do it. Alas, even with news that should have been helpful in catalyzing a stock-market plunge, stocks trudged higher. The news concerned consumer credit, and it could have left no doubt about the dire condition of  the American consumer. He in fact » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Hanging in the Balance

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.


Rick's Picks for Wednesday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Hidden Pivot Calculator   Education Page
All Picks By Issue:

ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1023.25)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT

The 1053.00 target given here yesterday remains valid, but the bullish case for the near term was weakened by the fact that all of yesterday’s action took place below a 1027.75 peak recorded on the way down a week ago. Because the plunge from that peak would have trapped many bulls, we should regard it as daunting if not impermeable.  If the futures take a stab at it today, the effort should be considered ineffectual unless it exceeds the look-to-the-left peak  at 1031.00 recorded on August 30.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:77.28)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Yesterday’s breakdown was serious, although I’d stipulated that DXY close for two consecutive days below 77.54 before we assume the worst. Tentatively, however, we’ll look for a quick drop to at least 76.05, or to 75.57, the Hidden Pivot given here originally, if any lower. My worst case number for the period preceeding the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh at month’s end is 72.93. My hunch is that such pronounced weakness in the dollar is unlikely ahead of the meeting, but if it comes, stocks are going to fall too, and steeply.

SIZ09 – Comex December Silver (Last:16.690)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Silver’s most recent peak at 16.860 fell 8 cents shy of a clear Hidden Pivot at 16.940, so we should assume the December contract has at least a little further to go before it hits something solid. Position traders should consider lightening up, with the goal of replacing on the pullback any shares sold near the target.  If the futures close above 16.940 for two consecutive days, or trade more than 10 cents above it intraday, that would be a very bullish sign going forward.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1001.10)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Yesterday’s patently spurious plunge should look more like a swoon by Wednesday mid-morning, when I expect gold will have recovered. The sell-off was very obviously caused by the nasty bull trap that ran stops placed slightly above a 1008.80 high made shortly after 4 a.m.  In a bigger picture, the 1074.50 target given here earlier remains valid, although I should introduce another, lesser one at 1016.60 that looks capable of showing some stopping power.  The less stopping power it displays, the more quickly and powerfully the next thrust is likely to develop.

$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:27.24)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:47 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1178.10)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:25 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2044.75)

by Rick Ackerman on November 19, 2014 3:29 am GMT

During yesterday’s impromptu session, I suggested shorting this vehicle at day’s end, but only to those who were prepared to monitor the position overnight. The 2055.25 target was effectively reached with an intraday high at 2054.00. For all we know, this could be the ultimate top of the bull market begun in March 2009. It’s equally possible, of course, that the futures could be bounding blithely higher by the time you read this.  Were that to occur, I’d have to infer that the 2115.50 target shown is in play, implying yet another thousand points of upside for the Dow Industrials.  This seems incredible to me, given that corporate earnings have begun to falter. Permabulls have been arguing for years that per-share earnings growth has justified the runaway bull, even if a significant piece of this growth has been bought by companies shrinking their floats via stock buybacks. In any case, and most immediately, if the moderate weakness in evidence Monday night starts to snowball, we’ll look for a way to get short Tuesday on-the-fly. Stay tuned to the chat room if you’re interested. _______ UPDATE (11:04 a.m.): Since I have reports from traders who got short yesterday, I am advising covering half of the position at current  levels,  tying what remains to a 2049.75 stop-loss. For purposes of tracking guidance, I will assume a short position of two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2068.00. _______ UPDATE (9:06 p.m.): Based on my instructions, traders should have exited on the spike to 2050.50 that occurred with two hours left in the session. The theoretical profit on the position would have been around $1750.  If you stayed short, an ‘impulsive’ stop-loss for today would imply bailing out only if the futures surpass Tuesday’s record-high 2054.00.

$+BABA – Alibaba (Last:108.56)

by Rick Ackerman on November 18, 2014 4:59 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:176.43)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.


SIDE BETS for Wednesday

UNG – U.S. Natural Gas Fund (Last: 10.28)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2009 12:43 am GMT

A minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 10.57 is the nearest impediment, but if UNG gets past it and a peak at 10.75 made in late August on the way down, it would be clearing the path for yet more upside. The implications will not affect the daily chart, however, until 16.27 is touched.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on Tuesday, December 16, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.