Yesterday morning, an hour into the new trading week, we covered a small short position in the Diamonds, booking a loss of $92 on some September put options. This speculative bet, initiated on the closing bell Friday, was inspired by a hunch that if Mr. Market really wanted to catch investors with their pants down, the Tuesday after Labor Day would be a perfect time to do it. Alas, even with news that should have been helpful in catalyzing a stock-market plunge, stocks trudged higher. The news concerned consumer credit, and it could have left no doubt about the dire condition of the American consumer. He in fact » Read the full article
The 1053.00 target given here yesterday remains valid, but the bullish case for the near term was weakened by the fact that all of yesterday’s action took place below a 1027.75 peak recorded on the way down a week ago. Because the plunge from that peak would have trapped many bulls, we should regard it as daunting if not impermeable. If the futures take a stab at it today, the effort should be considered ineffectual unless it exceeds the look-to-the-left peak at 1031.00 recorded on August 30.
Yesterday’s breakdown was serious, although I’d stipulated that DXY close for two consecutive days below 77.54 before we assume the worst. Tentatively, however, we’ll look for a quick drop to at least 76.05, or to 75.57, the Hidden Pivot given here originally, if any lower. My worst case number for the period preceeding the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh at month’s end is 72.93. My hunch is that such pronounced weakness in the dollar is unlikely ahead of the meeting, but if it comes, stocks are going to fall too, and steeply.
Silver’s most recent peak at 16.860 fell 8 cents shy of a clear Hidden Pivot at 16.940, so we should assume the December contract has at least a little further to go before it hits something solid. Position traders should consider lightening up, with the goal of replacing on the pullback any shares sold near the target. If the futures close above 16.940 for two consecutive days, or trade more than 10 cents above it intraday, that would be a very bullish sign going forward.
Yesterday’s patently spurious plunge should look more like a swoon by Wednesday mid-morning, when I expect gold will have recovered. The sell-off was very obviously caused by the nasty bull trap that ran stops placed slightly above a 1008.80 high made shortly after 4 a.m. In a bigger picture, the 1074.50 target given here earlier remains valid, although I should introduce another, lesser one at 1016.60 that looks capable of showing some stopping power. The less stopping power it displays, the more quickly and powerfully the next thrust is likely to develop.
As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss. This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.) Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already. We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66. Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.): We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low of the day, 42.40. The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock. In any event, I am tracking a 100-share position with an effective cost basis of 37.25. For the time being, let it run. _______ UPDATE July 29, 7:23 p.m. EDT): Let’s turn the position into a covered write if GDXJ slips beneath 42.25 today (see inset, a new chart). Specifically, you should short one August 16th 41 call for each hundred shares you own. Don’t simply bang out a sale on the bid when the stock hits 42.24, since you could get clipped for as much as 0.20-0.25 on the spread that way. Instead, you should be deliberate and relaxed about the short sale of the call, since we are in the catbird’s seat and have little to lose by taking in some option premium at this point. Shoot for a price midway between the bid and offer, and don’t rule out the possibility that GDXJ could snap back above 42.25 even in the process of breaking down.
A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000 with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16. Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying. We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched. To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into ‘free’ butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven’t yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn’t blast off.
I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least. You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks. Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’. The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992. I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best. Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.): Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target. Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.
The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term. The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there’s an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as 78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important ‘external’ peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan.
A minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 10.57 is the nearest impediment, but if UNG gets past it and a peak at 10.75 made in late August on the way down, it would be clearing the path for yet more upside. The implications will not affect the daily chart, however, until 16.27 is touched.