July 28th, 2014
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Two Exploration Stocks to Consider

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 8 comments

[We often feature the work of our friend and colleague Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based investment consultant who specializes in mining companies. Below, he explains why it is time for those who have been straddling the fence to buy junior gold shares.  He concludes with two specific recommendations that trade over-the-counter for less than $1.]

Rick has asked me to write about gold with a focus on the junior mining companies, so here we go, along with a couple of specific recommendations. I tried to point out the pros and cons of buying the juniors last month, but let me now make a quick refresher. I also suggest that you go back to Rick’s August archives to review my articles on gold and the junior sector.

Advantages of juniors…

– They have been beaten down in price due to the credit squeeze last year. » Read the full article


Rick's Picks for Monday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1061.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

The futures have spent two days in what looks to be a tortuous consolidation, but they don’t look ready yet for another surge higher. If and when they resume their suicidal climb, there are no targets above that look like bet-the-farm shorts.  However, the two that I find most compelling, both from the weekly chart, are 1140.00 and 1159.50.  Pivoteers will notice that that the summer selloff was not sufficient to give us a legitimate B-C pullback, since it did not equal the required 0.618 of k-A.

GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:45.92)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

I posted some targets for this vehicle in the chat room the other day but missed one that could have immediate relevance: 48.53.  Notice in the  weekly chart how last week’s high fell just 13 cents shy of the target.  That’s close enough, and the target has been long enough in coming, that we should be prepared for a significant pullback — one lasting perhaps 2 to 3 weeks. If the pullback turns out to be small stuff, however, and GDX pushes above 48.53, we would infer it’s headed for at least 52.14, the ‘D’ target that results when you slide down to the one-off low at 17.59 recorded last November.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1010.30)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Just a few more baby steps and the futures will succeed at something that has haunted the long-term picture since February. At that time, a sharp, four-month rally narrowly failed to get past a key peak at 1028.00 recorded seven months earlier. If the current thrust tops 1028.00, it will create a quite powerful bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart. And incidentally, if the rally fails to get past gold’s all-time recovery high at 1060.00 (basis the Comex December contract), it could conceivably create a camouflaged entry opportunity on the weekly chart.  That would be rare indeed.

$NFLX – Netflix (Last:421.86)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:32 am GMT

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$+SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.71)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:16 am GMT

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$GCQ14 – August Gold (Last:1303.80)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:06 am GMT

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A major top?  It’s certainly conceivable, since the futures peaked last week within 1.25 points of a compelling rally target I’d spotlighted at 1984.50. Although this Hidden Pivot resistance looked very short-able, I have my doubts that it will stand for long as the all-time high. The target’s main value lay in its clarity, and in that respect it did not disappoint us.  As you can see (inset), bulls exceeded it by a mere inch before diving — so far — 22 points. Subscribers who used the target to get short should have covered at least half of any positions by Sunday night and deployed a generous trailing stop for what remains. If you prefer using a stop-loss based on impulse legs, put it at 1979.25, just above a small peak on the hourly chart that was recorded Friday on the way down.

As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss.  This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.)  Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already.  We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66.  Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.):  We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low  of the day, 42.40.  The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock.  We now hold 100 shares with an effective cost basis of 37.25.  For the time being we’ll let it run.

$+PCLN – Priceline (Last:1238.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 24, 2014 12:54 am GMT

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:114.32)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 5:36 am GMT

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$EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.34302)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 12:01 am GMT

I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

September E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:3965.00

by Rick Ackerman on July 15, 2014 4:21 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Monday

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 17.025)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

There are no clear targets for the correction begun from 17.690 on Thursday, so a Hidden Pivot support at 16.810 will have to suffice. A bullish reversal on the hourly chart would be signaled at 17.405.


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