October 30th, 2014
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Two Exploration Stocks to Consider

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 8 comments

[We often feature the work of our friend and colleague Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based investment consultant who specializes in mining companies. Below, he explains why it is time for those who have been straddling the fence to buy junior gold shares.  He concludes with two specific recommendations that trade over-the-counter for less than $1.]

Rick has asked me to write about gold with a focus on the junior mining companies, so here we go, along with a couple of specific recommendations. I tried to point out the pros and cons of buying the juniors last month, but let me now make a quick refresher. I also suggest that you go back to Rick’s August archives to review my articles on gold and the junior sector.

Advantages of juniors…

– They have been beaten down in price due to the credit squeeze last year. » Read the full article


Rick's Picks for Monday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1061.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

The futures have spent two days in what looks to be a tortuous consolidation, but they don’t look ready yet for another surge higher. If and when they resume their suicidal climb, there are no targets above that look like bet-the-farm shorts.  However, the two that I find most compelling, both from the weekly chart, are 1140.00 and 1159.50.  Pivoteers will notice that that the summer selloff was not sufficient to give us a legitimate B-C pullback, since it did not equal the required 0.618 of k-A.

GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:45.92)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

I posted some targets for this vehicle in the chat room the other day but missed one that could have immediate relevance: 48.53.  Notice in the  weekly chart how last week’s high fell just 13 cents shy of the target.  That’s close enough, and the target has been long enough in coming, that we should be prepared for a significant pullback — one lasting perhaps 2 to 3 weeks. If the pullback turns out to be small stuff, however, and GDX pushes above 48.53, we would infer it’s headed for at least 52.14, the ‘D’ target that results when you slide down to the one-off low at 17.59 recorded last November.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1010.30)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Just a few more baby steps and the futures will succeed at something that has haunted the long-term picture since February. At that time, a sharp, four-month rally narrowly failed to get past a key peak at 1028.00 recorded seven months earlier. If the current thrust tops 1028.00, it will create a quite powerful bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart. And incidentally, if the rally fails to get past gold’s all-time recovery high at 1060.00 (basis the Comex December contract), it could conceivably create a camouflaged entry opportunity on the weekly chart.  That would be rare indeed.

$ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1984.00)

by Rick Ackerman on October 30, 2014 2:53 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:169.70)

by Rick Ackerman on October 29, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1144.22)

by Rick Ackerman on October 29, 2014 12:02 am GMT

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$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2490)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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$+MCD – McDonald’s Corp. (Last:92.72)

by Rick Ackerman on October 27, 2014 12:01 am GMT

This week’s commentary implies that McDonald’s shares are an attractive long-term short. Most immediately, the stock looks primed to fall to the 85.53 Hidden Pivot target shown. The fact that the stock market’s powerful short-squeeze has lifted the stock somewhat makes the bet even more enticing. Accordingly, I’ll suggest shorting two round lots anywhere above the 91.42 midpoint pivot (i.e., the red line). Use a stop-loss equal to one-third of whatever you stand to gain if the stock were to fall to the target from the price where shorted.  This is the “mechanical entry” tactic I have often alluded to in the chat room and which I teach as part of the Hidden Pivot Course.  If you prefer to use options, buy the Jan 17/Oct 31 85 put calendar spread 16 times for 0.70 or better. Our goal will be to reduce risk to zero or less by rolling the spread forward, shorting the nearest weekly calendar spread each Friday. _______ UPDATE (11:28 a.m.): With the stock up somewhat this morning — don’t these guys read? — lower the bid to 0.68, and decrease it by 0.01 for each 5-cent gain in the stock above 91.86. _______ UPDATE (7:43 p.m.):  The spread closed at 0.70, but there’s not much more we can milk from it, since the October calls we’re trying to short closed at 0.03. Traders who have yet to act should wait to buy eight Jan 17 85 puts ‘naked’ with the stock trading near the 92.59 target shown. Those who are long the spread should first try to cover the short puts with a 0.01 bid, day order. If the order is filled, sit tight for the time being. _______ UPDATE October 28, 10:45 a.m.): The stock gapped up 61 cents on the opening to a spike high at 92.61 that lay just three cents from our target. Subscribers reported paying anywhere from 0.62 to 0.67 for the puts, but absent the aggressive Rick’s Picks bid for a relatively quiet, illiquid series, they should have sold for closer to 0.50.  Anyway, I’m now suggesting that you spread off the risk by offering Jan 17 82.50 puts short for 0.56. To avoid crushing these little daisies, let no Rick’s Picks subscriber put up an offer until others have bid 0.52 or better. _______ UPDATE (5:45 p.m.): Forget about spreading off the puts. Assuming a middling price of 0.65 was paid for them, simply use a stop-loss at 0.49.  Our beautifully targeted entry three cents from the top of a 60-cent opening-bar gap should have allowed us to easily spread off the entire risk of our position, since MCD dropped by nearly $1 following the bull-trap opening bar. However, because a heavy convergence of Rick’s Picks bidders pushed the puts we bought into the stratosphere to begin with, and because MCD is getting goosed by the short-squeeze on the broad averages, we’ll set a firm limit on risk and stick with it. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:09 p.m.): The position was stopped out for a theoretical loss of $128.  We’ll get out of the way of this erstwhile glue horse for now, since its brazen distribution is benefitting from a short-squeeze that has pushed the broad averages sharply higher.

AMZN – Amazon (Last:294.11)

by Rick Ackerman on October 24, 2014 12:30 am GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1224.60)

by Rick Ackerman on October 23, 2014 1:56 am GMT

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$+AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:107.34)

by Rick Ackerman on October 22, 2014 8:18 am GMT

Apple’s gap yesterday through the 100.41 midpoint resistance (see inset) strongly implies that its D sibling at 105.64 will be reached. Although a pullback to the midpoint should be treated as a belated buying opportunity, I wouldn’t suggest chasing the stock higher. That said, the four labeled peaks are tailor-made for the Hidden Pivot trader who can employ the ‘camouflage’ technique for getting long. If you understand why, you should go for it! _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m.): The broad averages pulled Apple back down to earth yesterday when the stock tried to go opposite weakness that surfaced around mid-session. This runs flatly counter to my speculative idea that AAPL might pull the broad averages higher. That’s still possible, since yesterday’s 104.11 peak fell 53 cents of a rally target that remains valid in theory. However, we’ll eschew speculation for now and simply watch to see whether  the 102.44 Hidden Pivot support holds (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (October 23, 1:59 p.m.): Apple has rebounded sharply today, off a 102.90 correction low to a so-far high of 105.05 that’s 59 cents shy of our target. Most longs should have been exited by now. ______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:07 p.m.): Friday’s high at 105.49 came within 0.15 of the target flagged above.  Bulls can continue to hold small long positions for a swing at the fences, but I’d suggest tying your shares to a stop-loss based on a downtrending impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Currently, that would imply stopping yourself out if an uncorrected fall touches 104.52 _______ UPDATE (October 28, 8:44 p.m.): Still long? Be alert at 107.08, a Hidden Pivot target that looks all but certain to be reached but which could stop the rally cold. You should tighten your trailing stop there in any case. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:25 p.m.): The rally has shredded some challenging Hidden Pivots, but let’s see if it can bully its way past the 109.07 target shown. In any case, it is my minimum upside objective for the near term.


SIDE BETS for Monday

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 17.025)

by Rick Ackerman on September 21, 2009 12:01 am GMT

There are no clear targets for the correction begun from 17.690 on Thursday, so a Hidden Pivot support at 16.810 will have to suffice. A bullish reversal on the hourly chart would be signaled at 17.405.


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