August 21st, 2014
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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:13 am GMT · 8 comments

  

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might » Read the full article


Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1060.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:25 am GMT

Putting aside the two targets in the stratosphere that I flagged here yesterday, there’s a minor corrective one at 1052.25 that you could use for bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Please note that it would take a print today at 1047.50 to turn the hourly chat bearish. ______ UPDATE(1061.25):  The stop-loss would need to have been at least four ticks, since the actual low occurred at 1051.50. The subsequent bounce points to 1068.25, subject to midpoint resistance at 1063.00, but neither number looks like it will be worth much for trading purposes. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:16 a.m.):  The futures have topped so far this morning at  1069.00, suggesting the 1068.25 pivot flagged above was not so useless as I had imagined.

USZ09 – T-Bond Futures (Last:119^04)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:23 am GMT

The futures have the potential to hit 122^08 on the next thrust – a target that has been corroborated by the stall within two ticks of its sibling midpoint 120^11.  The best way to board would be to use a camouflage ‘B’ that is recorded somewhere between 120^14 and 102^16.  The opportunity will be potentially available as long as the ‘C’ low at 118^13 is not violated. Since it could come and go quickly, you’ll need to be ready, so I’d suggest setting a chart alert at 120^15.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1015.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:25 am GMT

The futures failed to reach a targeted pullback low at 993.00 yesterday, suggesting that  the bounce off the actual low at 996.30 is likely to reach its ‘D’ target, 1012.10.  The futures appeared to be corroborating this scenario Monday night by pushing above the uptrend’s midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  The futures blew past 1012.10 on the first hourly bar where they encountered the resistance, implying more upside over the near term to at least the next Hidden Pivot target, 1029.10.  Its sibling midpoint at 1012.70 is a logical place for a consolidation to bottom, so buyers should take note if a pullback comes down that far. 

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:100.57)

by Rick Ackerman on August 21, 2014 3:16 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.20)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2014 4:59 am GMT

Subscribers are working two bullish calendar spreads (x16), but I would suggest increasing the size of the position if TLT corrects down to the 115.18 target  shown.   For now , we are long September 20 118 calls against short August 19 118 calls that we will roll into August 29 calls this Thursday and Friday.  We’ve already done the roll twice, reducing the cost basis of the spread to 0.04. This week’s roll will entail covering (buying back) the short calls and shorting a like number of August 29 calls, effectively selling the August 22 118/August 29 118 calendar spread.

It was marked on Tuesday at 0.17, off a 0.26 offer, but any price higher than 0.04 will effectively turn the position we’ll have  – long the Sept 20 118/August 29 118 calendar — into a credit spread.  This means we can’t lose – will make a profit no matter what TLT does.  Ideally, come September 20 , TLT will be sitting at 118, our spread will be trading for around 0.50, and we’ll be carrying it for a credit of perhaps 0.50.  The imputed profit would be  $1600 — not bad, considering our risk is already close to zero.

My long-term outlook for T-Bonds is very bullish, a view that goes sharply against a consensus which clings to the belief that interest rates – and the stock market — can only go up.  That is a bet we should be eager to fade. We may have a chance to do so at still better odds if T-Bonds continue to  sell off  on the manufactured idea that the Jackson Hole conference will open the floodgates for more stimulus and inflation. _______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m.):  The Sep 20/Aug xx calendar spread is recommended at this point only for those who did the original spread, since there’s not enough time left on it to roll its cost basis down to zero or less (i.e., a credit). If you are new to the spread, try buying the Nov 20/August 29 calendar for 0.90 with TLT trading around 115.80.  The spread has a delta value of 0.20, implying that being long one spread is equivalent to being long 20 shares of stock.  This means that, using a spread price of 0.90 as a benchmark, you should adjust the price you pay for it by one penny, up or down, for each 5 cents that TLT moves away from 115.80.

$SIU14 – September Silver (Last:19.615)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 2:02 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:168.82)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2014 1:50 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.58)

by Rick Ackerman on August 7, 2014 4:58 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Tuesday

DXY – Dollar index (Last: 76.54)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:51 am GMT

The Dollar Index is giving off mixed signals, consolidating just below a midpoint pivot after creating a strongly bullish impulse leg yesterday on the hourly chart. If the retracement goes lower than the ‘d’ target at  76.33, the whole bullish enterprise would become suspect, notwithstanding the dog-and-pony show slated in Pittsburgh this week.

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This Just In... for Tuesday

A mining stock of interest

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 10:36 pm GMT

In the chat room, I’ve posted a note concerning an over-the-counter mining stock of interest. You can find the note at 16.22 hours.


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