November 23rd, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:13 am GMT · 8 comments

  

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might » Read the full article


Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1060.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:25 am GMT

Putting aside the two targets in the stratosphere that I flagged here yesterday, there’s a minor corrective one at 1052.25 that you could use for bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Please note that it would take a print today at 1047.50 to turn the hourly chat bearish. ______ UPDATE(1061.25):  The stop-loss would need to have been at least four ticks, since the actual low occurred at 1051.50. The subsequent bounce points to 1068.25, subject to midpoint resistance at 1063.00, but neither number looks like it will be worth much for trading purposes. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:16 a.m.):  The futures have topped so far this morning at  1069.00, suggesting the 1068.25 pivot flagged above was not so useless as I had imagined.

USZ09 – T-Bond Futures (Last:119^04)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:23 am GMT

The futures have the potential to hit 122^08 on the next thrust – a target that has been corroborated by the stall within two ticks of its sibling midpoint 120^11.  The best way to board would be to use a camouflage ‘B’ that is recorded somewhere between 120^14 and 102^16.  The opportunity will be potentially available as long as the ‘C’ low at 118^13 is not violated. Since it could come and go quickly, you’ll need to be ready, so I’d suggest setting a chart alert at 120^15.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1015.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:25 am GMT

The futures failed to reach a targeted pullback low at 993.00 yesterday, suggesting that  the bounce off the actual low at 996.30 is likely to reach its ‘D’ target, 1012.10.  The futures appeared to be corroborating this scenario Monday night by pushing above the uptrend’s midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  The futures blew past 1012.10 on the first hourly bar where they encountered the resistance, implying more upside over the near term to at least the next Hidden Pivot target, 1029.10.  Its sibling midpoint at 1012.70 is a logical place for a consolidation to bottom, so buyers should take note if a pullback comes down that far. 

$+BABA – Alibaba (Last:110.75)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:32 am GMT

Based on my chat room post late in Thursday’s session, subscribers were able to stake out some small ‘Jackpot Bets,’ buying expiring calls at the 112 and 113 strikes for as little, respectively, as 0.21 and 0.15.  The latter options traded for as little as 0.10 yesterday before rocketing to 1.00 when Bahh-Bahh found traction after the opening and soared $5 in the space of an hour. It can, and often does, perform similar feats on a given day, and that’s why I would rather be long a few out-of-the-money calls for cheap on expiration day than short them. The goal of these jackpot bets, which we ordinarily initiate on Friday mornings in the first hour, is to cash out half of the options in the early going for twice what we’ve paid for them, assuming the opportunity arises. If successful, that leaves us with a risk-free chance to make perhaps 5 to 10 times our money.  In practice, subscribers have done this or even better numerous times, and even when things did not go our way they were able to do no worse than break even.

I’ve included a chart that suggests that, from a purely visual standpoint, a run-up to as high as 114.80 on Friday is hardly unlikely. We don’t need that to happen to make a nice score, however, since even if BABA rallies just $1.50 or so in the early going, there will likely be an opportunity to ‘double out’ on half of our positions.  If the stock opens lower on Friday there could still be a chance to get a jackpot bet down. However, I’d suggest doing so with options of a lower strike purchased for perhaps 0.20 or less.  Don’t bet more than you are comfortable losing, since this gambit is highly speculative. My guideline is to invest no more than you would on some 20-to-1 horse that you happened to like. _______ UPDATE (November 21, 4:00 p.m.): Subscribers reported gains of  300% to 800% on the trade suggested above. Quick, substantial gains were painlessly achieved after BABA spiked on Friday’s opening bar to 113.25 — 3.63 above the previous day’s close. The leap caused expiring 113 calls that subscribers had bought for as little as 0.15 less than a day earlier to trade for 0.90 in the early going — a sixfold increase. At the same time, calls at the 112 strike that subscribers reported buying for as little as 0.21 soared to 1.60.

$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2050.25)

by Rick Ackerman on November 21, 2014 3:02 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:27.24)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:47 am GMT

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USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

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$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:177.73)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

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$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Tuesday

DXY – Dollar index (Last: 76.54)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:51 am GMT

The Dollar Index is giving off mixed signals, consolidating just below a midpoint pivot after creating a strongly bullish impulse leg yesterday on the hourly chart. If the retracement goes lower than the ‘d’ target at  76.33, the whole bullish enterprise would become suspect, notwithstanding the dog-and-pony show slated in Pittsburgh this week.

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This Just In... for Tuesday

A mining stock of interest

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 10:36 pm GMT

In the chat room, I’ve posted a note concerning an over-the-counter mining stock of interest. You can find the note at 16.22 hours.


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