September 30th, 2014
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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:13 am GMT · 8 comments

  

[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]

It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might » Read the full article


Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1060.75)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:25 am GMT

Putting aside the two targets in the stratosphere that I flagged here yesterday, there’s a minor corrective one at 1052.25 that you could use for bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Please note that it would take a print today at 1047.50 to turn the hourly chat bearish. ______ UPDATE(1061.25):  The stop-loss would need to have been at least four ticks, since the actual low occurred at 1051.50. The subsequent bounce points to 1068.25, subject to midpoint resistance at 1063.00, but neither number looks like it will be worth much for trading purposes. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:16 a.m.):  The futures have topped so far this morning at  1069.00, suggesting the 1068.25 pivot flagged above was not so useless as I had imagined.

USZ09 – T-Bond Futures (Last:119^04)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:23 am GMT

The futures have the potential to hit 122^08 on the next thrust – a target that has been corroborated by the stall within two ticks of its sibling midpoint 120^11.  The best way to board would be to use a camouflage ‘B’ that is recorded somewhere between 120^14 and 102^16.  The opportunity will be potentially available as long as the ‘C’ low at 118^13 is not violated. Since it could come and go quickly, you’ll need to be ready, so I’d suggest setting a chart alert at 120^15.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1015.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:25 am GMT

The futures failed to reach a targeted pullback low at 993.00 yesterday, suggesting that  the bounce off the actual low at 996.30 is likely to reach its ‘D’ target, 1012.10.  The futures appeared to be corroborating this scenario Monday night by pushing above the uptrend’s midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  The futures blew past 1012.10 on the first hourly bar where they encountered the resistance, implying more upside over the near term to at least the next Hidden Pivot target, 1029.10.  Its sibling midpoint at 1012.70 is a logical place for a consolidation to bottom, so buyers should take note if a pullback comes down that far. 

$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:170.34)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2014 5:35 am GMT

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e-mini-s&p-500-futures-contract-technical-analysisE-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Technical Analysis: Bears blew a chance to sack stocks yesterday when the Bad Guys reversed a 137 point plunge in the early going to close the Dow off a measly 42 points. Recently, it’s seemed all too easy for DaBoyz to manipulate the broad averages so that they almost never experience three down days in a row.  One way they do this is to pull their bids overnight and let stocks fall on gaseous volume. The effect is to dry up sellers so that stocks can be short-squeezed to new highs without much effort or bullish buying. However, we should infer that this little trick is getting old when it takes a 137-point drop to set the trap. Moreover, although shorts remain as easy to spook as a sorority girl at a sceance, they weren’t so panicky yesterday that stocks were able to close up on the day.

One trader who re-shorted the E-Mini S&P yesterday after getting bucked off the horse by Friday’s strong rally suggested that the only thing keeping stocks aloft right now is end-of-month portfolio-squaring. This explanation feels right to me, but we won’t know for sure until October is under way.  In the meantime, I’d recommend cautious shorting that follows our Hidden Pivot rules. Generally speaking, this means initiating shorts in this vehicle at minor rally targets whenever entry risk can be held to a theoretical five ticks or less.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:40.09)

by Rick Ackerman on September 29, 2014 8:30 am GMT

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$CLX14 – November Crude (Last:92.92)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2014 12:37 am GMT

Energy prices got a lift Wednesday from news that U.S. air strikes had targeted a Syrian oil installation held by ISIS. The refineries that were hit reportedly have been generating revenues of $2 million a day for the terrorist group, so the news was good (even if there was no mention of jihadis left dead by the attack). Whether or not the moderate spike in oil prices will disrupt the mini-bear market in crude remains to be seen. However, using Hidden Pivot analysis, it’s possible to project a further move to the shortable 94.77 target shown. If that happens, prices will have advanced nearly 6% from their September lows. It would take just a bit more than that, however — specifically, a print at 94.93 today or tomorrow — to turn the daily chart outright bullish.

We should not expect a bearish reversal to much alleviate rising prices at the pump, however, since crude’s nearly 15% slide from late June’s highs had little effect on prices, which in many parts of the country still hover near $3.80 for a gallon of regular. Reports by the slackers, fabulists and indolent hacks who bring us the news – including, unfortunately, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal — suggested otherwise, almost to the point of saying that gasoline prices had collapsed in recent weeks. Of course, those of us who actually buy gasoline saw prices come down by only a dime or so.

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.02)

by Rick Ackerman on September 23, 2014 2:06 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:20.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:23 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:17.535)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:12 am GMT

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$+RGLD – Royal Gold (Last:65.34)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 12:01 am GMT

The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target.  It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:23 p.m.): Sellers crushed the support after it held for just a day, implying more weakness is coming. If so, we should expect a test of support near the 58.86 low recorded  in late May. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 7:27 p.m.): A weak rally has lifted RGLD off recent lows, but the move would need to hit 66.49 to turn the very lesser charts impulsively bullish. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance of importance lies at 66.22, so take encouragement if there’s an easy move through it.

$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3400)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668.  If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23):  Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT):  The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago.


SIDE BETS for Tuesday

DXY – Dollar index (Last: 76.54)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 3:51 am GMT

The Dollar Index is giving off mixed signals, consolidating just below a midpoint pivot after creating a strongly bullish impulse leg yesterday on the hourly chart. If the retracement goes lower than the ‘d’ target at  76.33, the whole bullish enterprise would become suspect, notwithstanding the dog-and-pony show slated in Pittsburgh this week.

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This Just In... for Tuesday

A mining stock of interest

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 10:36 pm GMT

In the chat room, I’ve posted a note concerning an over-the-counter mining stock of interest. You can find the note at 16.22 hours.


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