Putting aside the two targets in the stratosphere that I flagged here yesterday, there’s a minor corrective one at 1052.25 that you could use for bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Please note that it would take a print today at 1047.50 to turn the hourly chat bearish. ______ UPDATE(1061.25): The stop-loss would need to have been at least four ticks, since the actual low occurred at 1051.50. The subsequent bounce points to 1068.25, subject to midpoint resistance at 1063.00, but neither number looks like it will be worth much for trading purposes. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:16 a.m.): The futures have topped so far this morning at 1069.00, suggesting the 1068.25 pivot flagged above was not so useless as I had imagined.
COMMENTARY for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
The futures have the potential to hit 122^08 on the next thrust – a target that has been corroborated by the stall within two ticks of its sibling midpoint 120^11. The best way to board would be to use a camouflage ‘B’ that is recorded somewhere between 120^14 and 102^16. The opportunity will be potentially available as long as the ‘C’ low at 118^13 is not violated. Since it could come and go quickly, you’ll need to be ready, so I’d suggest setting a chart alert at 120^15.
The futures failed to reach a targeted pullback low at 993.00 yesterday, suggesting that the bounce off the actual low at 996.30 is likely to reach its ‘D’ target, 1012.10. The futures appeared to be corroborating this scenario Monday night by pushing above the uptrend’s midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.): The futures blew past 1012.10 on the first hourly bar where they encountered the resistance, implying more upside over the near term to at least the next Hidden Pivot target, 1029.10. Its sibling midpoint at 1012.70 is a logical place for a consolidation to bottom, so buyers should take note if a pullback comes down that far.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Tuesday
The Dollar Index is giving off mixed signals, consolidating just below a midpoint pivot after creating a strongly bullish impulse leg yesterday on the hourly chart. If the retracement goes lower than the ‘d’ target at 76.33, the whole bullish enterprise would become suspect, notwithstanding the dog-and-pony show slated in Pittsburgh this week.
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This Just In... for Tuesday
In the chat room, I’ve posted a note concerning an over-the-counter mining stock of interest. You can find the note at 16.22 hours.
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Tepid Media Make Gold an Enticing Buy
by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2009 2:13 am GMT · 8 comments
[Rick has been under the weather with a possible case of food poisoning. Filling in for him today is Chuck Cohen, a financial consultant whose work will be familiar to many of you. The following appeared at LeMetropole.com over the weekend. Chuck thinks that as long as the news media continue to stumble around in the dark in their coverage of the gold world, we should remain confident about accumulating more bullion and precious metal shares for the long haul. RA]
It took a mix of $1000 gold, the media’s reaction to it, and a very fallow day to compose this piece. As serious as the news is these days, it is still difficult not to see the absurdity in what is unfolding. Now that gold has finally pierced $1000, I had expected to find repentance and mea culpas by a news media that has persistently resisted and even mocked the gold bugs for nearly a decade. But if the news over the weekend is an indication, gold might » Read the full article