Our memory stumbles whenever we try to recall any recent sightings of “green shoots” that would support the officially promoted illusion of a U.S. economy in recovery. Actually, this vision is more of a hallucination than an illusion, since one’s mind needs to venture beyond the pale of rationality, light years beyond the fringe of statistical evidence, to conjure up supposed signs of sustainable growth. Does “recovery” square with the reality that you, personally, see all around you? Indeed, whatever picture the government and the news media want us to see will be unconvincing at best, since a » Read the full article
The update to yesterday’s forecast caught the top of an entirely unremarkable session that was all noise and zero conviction. If and when this trading vehicle breaks out, look for confirmation of a 1097.50 rally target by way of a stall at 1074.50, its midpoint sibling. Alternatively, it would take a print at 1057.25 to turn the hourly chart bearish.
I’ll stick with the 1029.10 rally target flagged in yesterday’ s update, although a leisurely buy on a pullback to the 1012.70 midpoint associated with that number does not appear to be forthcoming. The print at 1029.10 would be a big deal, since, as noted here earlier, it would surpass a high at 1028.00 from July of 2008, refreshing the bullish impulse on the weekly chart. That high is no less relevant because it occurred in thin trading, by the way. To the contrary, it is all the more legitimate as an “external” peak because it was recorded by the December futures, not by a continuous contract.
There are no DJIA patterns that I particularly like, but the whimsical rule-breaker shown in the chart will do in a pinch. I’ve decided to legitimize it because of the oscillations around the 9290 midpoint pivot, and also because the most recent phase of bear-rally hysteria launched from a low not far beneath it. Anyway, the bottom line is a Hidden Pivot target at 10493. Although I wouldn’t try to go short the world at that price, I’m pretty confident about using it as the first number above 10000 where I might believe a top could form. One thing we can be nearly certain of is that 10000 itself will show no particular stopping power. If such an occurrence were even remotely possible, the stock market would cease to be the engaging carnival that it is. At 10493, however, Dow 11000 would be a glimmer in bulls’ eyes — and Kudlow’s wet dream.
With a rally target at 553.87, the little arse bandit hasn’t given us much in the way of Hidden Pivots to bottom-fish. Nevertheless, we can attempt it this morning if the stock pulls back to 497.19 in the first 15 minutes, bringing the December 550 calls (GOPLY) into bargain range. You should try to buy one of them for around 9.10, using a stop-loss at 496.99. With the stock in such a strong rally, it will probably be easier to try and enter with-the-trend on camouflage; so if you are familiar with the technique, you should try to buy the call on the first ABC rally from near 497.19. ______ UPDATE: We can return to this trade if and when GOOG shows a little more gumption, but for now, cancel the order.
Yesterday’s price action was unsatisfying from a technical standpoint. The futures fell relatively quickly to a Hidden Pivot target at 1984.50 that I had identified in the chat room. Although they subsequently exceeded it by two points, there was no follow-through to the next at 1978.25 (which will remain viable, and potentially tradable, for night owls). This suggests that shorts are as nervous as ever, and evidently uncomforted by the ominous divergences that have cropped up in such key technical indicators as the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and the Highs/Lows summation. All we can do from a trading standpoint is play it by the book. Most immediately, this means bottom-fishing at 1978.25 (a two-tick stop-loss is recommended). If a bear market is in its preening stage, we should begin to see corroborating signs immediately, to wit: 1) downtrending ABC patterns should start overshooting their D targets in patterns of all degree; and, 2) abc rallies should start failing to reach their D targets. Whatever happens, we’ll be watching carefully for signs of a pick-up in selling.
The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target. It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:23 p.m.): Sellers crushed the support after it held for just a day, implying more weakness is coming. If so, we should expect a test of support near the 58.86 low recorded in late May.
I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.
Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares. But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.
From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 26.68. If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play.
Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07. This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled. Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread. We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.
December Silver appears to be consolidating above a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 17.150, and a close above it today would likely clinch a push to its ‘D’ sibling, 17.775 (or 18.155 if any higher). Night owls could try bottom-fishing at 17.175 using a three-tick stop-loss.