Our memory stumbles whenever we try to recall any recent sightings of “green shoots” that would support the officially promoted illusion of a U.S. economy in recovery. Actually, this vision is more of a hallucination than an illusion, since one’s mind needs to venture beyond the pale of rationality, light years beyond the fringe of statistical evidence, to conjure up supposed signs of sustainable growth. Does “recovery” square with the reality that you, personally, see all around you? Indeed, whatever picture the government and the news media want us to see will be unconvincing at best, since a » Read the full article
The update to yesterday’s forecast caught the top of an entirely unremarkable session that was all noise and zero conviction. If and when this trading vehicle breaks out, look for confirmation of a 1097.50 rally target by way of a stall at 1074.50, its midpoint sibling. Alternatively, it would take a print at 1057.25 to turn the hourly chart bearish.
I’ll stick with the 1029.10 rally target flagged in yesterday’ s update, although a leisurely buy on a pullback to the 1012.70 midpoint associated with that number does not appear to be forthcoming. The print at 1029.10 would be a big deal, since, as noted here earlier, it would surpass a high at 1028.00 from July of 2008, refreshing the bullish impulse on the weekly chart. That high is no less relevant because it occurred in thin trading, by the way. To the contrary, it is all the more legitimate as an “external” peak because it was recorded by the December futures, not by a continuous contract.
There are no DJIA patterns that I particularly like, but the whimsical rule-breaker shown in the chart will do in a pinch. I’ve decided to legitimize it because of the oscillations around the 9290 midpoint pivot, and also because the most recent phase of bear-rally hysteria launched from a low not far beneath it. Anyway, the bottom line is a Hidden Pivot target at 10493. Although I wouldn’t try to go short the world at that price, I’m pretty confident about using it as the first number above 10000 where I might believe a top could form. One thing we can be nearly certain of is that 10000 itself will show no particular stopping power. If such an occurrence were even remotely possible, the stock market would cease to be the engaging carnival that it is. At 10493, however, Dow 11000 would be a glimmer in bulls’ eyes — and Kudlow’s wet dream.
With a rally target at 553.87, the little arse bandit hasn’t given us much in the way of Hidden Pivots to bottom-fish. Nevertheless, we can attempt it this morning if the stock pulls back to 497.19 in the first 15 minutes, bringing the December 550 calls (GOPLY) into bargain range. You should try to buy one of them for around 9.10, using a stop-loss at 496.99. With the stock in such a strong rally, it will probably be easier to try and enter with-the-trend on camouflage; so if you are familiar with the technique, you should try to buy the call on the first ABC rally from near 497.19. ______ UPDATE: We can return to this trade if and when GOOG shows a little more gumption, but for now, cancel the order.
Tesla got short-squeezed to within 28 cents of the 86.72 target I’d proffered early Monday morning, but a second-wind rally to 88.00 suggests it’s got eyes for 104.44, the ‘D’ target associated with the first number. It can serve as a minimum upside objective for now, implying that all trades between here and there be positioned from the long side. We’ll plan on buying weekly puts if and when the target is reached, provided it happens before Wednesday of the given week. Please note as well that a lesser Hidden Pivot at 94.19 (see inset) has the potential to stop the rally cold and can therefore be used for spec camouflage shorts.
All signs point higher at the moment, but even Google will have to top somewhere. My best-bet for a short-able apex is 929.78, the Hidden Pivot target of a well-defined ABCD on the monthly chart (see inset). You can try shorting with camouflage at that number, or at the D target (in purple) of the lesser pattern, but until then all trades should incorporate a bullish bias.
December Silver appears to be consolidating above a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 17.150, and a close above it today would likely clinch a push to its ‘D’ sibling, 17.775 (or 18.155 if any higher). Night owls could try bottom-fishing at 17.175 using a three-tick stop-loss.