January 26th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

Will Gold Be the Turd in G-20’s Punchbowl?

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 9 comments

With a glower of contempt toward the bankers, gold remains easily aloft above $1000, developing thrust for the next big move. We wrote here a while back that blast-off from $1000 would follow the realization that G-20 can do nothing to restore stability to the world’s tottering financial system. Now, the question is whether anything at all will be “realized” in the wake of the Pittsburgh meeting. We hesitate to call it a summit because the event seems to have slipped off the news media’s radar.  Unable to recall the actual » Read the full article


Thought for Today

A new strain of virus…

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 2:44 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Thursday
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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1057.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:36 am GMT

The futures dove hard yesterday afternoon after rallying moderately. The Wall Street Journal was hard-pressed to explain it, but we know better, since  a purely technical target at 1074.50 that was proffered here very nearly marked the top. The decline may have jolted some traders, but in Hidden Pivot terms it achieved nothing of interest on the hourly chart. A print down at 1047.50 was needed to turn the hourly chart bearish, but panicky sellers could muster only 1055.25.  As of early Wednesday evening, there were no compelling spots to try bottom-fishing. A midpoint support at 1055.75 was too close to the intraday low,  although its ‘d’ sibling at 1051.25 might be serviceable if you’re bored enough to force the trade.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:97.62)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Bid 2.05 for two November 95 puts (DAVWQ), day order.  That’s about what they should sell for if the Diamonds trade as high as yesterday’s opening price, 98.36. Stocks seemed too spooked at the close to suggest that that much of a recovery is likely, but DaBoyz will be doing their best to unload at at least somewhat higher levels, since they too were caught by surprise.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:186.21)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 2:26 am GMT

I want to reiterate the 192.91 target, which looks as promising as ever (see chart), notwithstanding the fright-wig plunge into the close. We took a close look during yesterday’s tutorial session and saw a ripening short, presumably using out-of-the-money puts in the October series.

$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2043.25)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:03 am GMT

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$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1301.90)

by Rick Ackerman on January 23, 2015 12:13 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:174.88)

by Rick Ackerman on January 21, 2015 5:29 am GMT

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$CLH15 – March Crude (Last:48.84)

by Rick Ackerman on January 20, 2015 12:01 am GMT

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$TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:191.87)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 6:35 am GMT

Tesla got whacked yesterday, supposedly on word from Elon Musk that the company will not be turning a profit much before 2020. Although this “news” is about as dog-bites-man as it gets, DaBoyz wasted no time repricing the stock with a gap-down opening that brought it down below the 196.19 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown. This implies not only that more downside awaits to as low as 163.88, but that any rally back up to 196.19 would be an enticing short sale. _______ UPDATE (January 15, 11:39 p.m.):  Yesterday’s fake-out rally got within 44 cents of my 196.19 benchmark before collapsing anew by nearly $6.  If you got short, set a break-even stop for now and please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance. In any event, you should have covered a third to half of any short position above or near the lows.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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$BABA – Alibaba (Last:96.31)

by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2015 3:54 am GMT

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AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:105.98)

by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2015 3:41 am GMT

We shouldn’t doubt that Apple will eventually lift off for points north — most immediately the 116.92 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown, and thence its ‘D’ sibling at 129.20. In the meantime, the presumptive consolidation near 110 has brough only tedium and a more or less predictable series of false starts. The timing of the rally is of some importance, since the stock market as a whole cannot get in bullish gear without the world’s most valuable stock leading the charge.  For our part, let’s get our feet wet with a 0.31 bid for 16 Feb 20 130 calls, day order, contingent on the stock trading 109.00 or higher. If Apple falls below that price lower the bid to 0.26.  Our eventual goal will be to leg into some vertical spreads for cheap, or possibly free. ______ UPDATE: The calls traded for 0.31 on the opening, so I’ll track 16 of them at that price.  Use a stop-loss at 0.24 for now, o-c-o with an order to short 16 Feb 20 135 calls for 0.31. ________UPDATE (January 18, 7:03 p.m.): The stock has looked like hell lately, stopping us out of the calls for 0.24 on the opening Friday. The loss would have totaled $112 plus commissions.  We’ll back away for now, since AAPL now looks primed to fall to 103.58 before bulls get traction.

$SIH15 – March Silver (Last:17.800)

by Rick Ackerman on January 13, 2015 2:09 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:133.40)

by Rick Ackerman on January 12, 2015 1:30 am GMT

A sale at 2.10 was a lay-up on Friday, since the spread peaked near the opening above 2.30.  With about $2640 in profits already booked, I’ll suggest holding the remaining spreads till expiration. If TLT is trading above 129 at the time, the total profit on the position would be $3840.  From a technical standpoint, the stock’s almost relentless strength is surprising, even to me. In retrospect, it vindicates our strategy — still viable — of buying every minor pullback, since that seems to be as much weakness as we’ll get.  I still expect the 133.16 target shown to exhibit some stopping power, but we shouldn’t be too surprised if buyers just shrug it off. ________ UPDATE (January 16, 12:04 a.m.): Even though I keep repeating that we should expect this vehicle to continue rampaging higher for years and years, I still can’t get used to how easily it blows past ostensibly daunting Hidden Pivot resistances. For what it’s worth, the next lies at 138.60.  Our position is beyond adjustment at this point and seems all but certain to produce a $3840 gain. _______ UPDATE (January 21, 8:24 p.m.):  Yesterday’s selloff was the most vicious we’ve seen in months, but it had no impact whatsoever on the 138.60 target noted above.  The rather large profit from our spread is safe in any case and will remain so unless Armageddon intervenes.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


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