August 30th, 2014
Published Daily
HP Seminar Information page.

Will Gold Be the Turd in G-20’s Punchbowl?

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 9 comments

With a glower of contempt toward the bankers, gold remains easily aloft above $1000, developing thrust for the next big move. We wrote here a while back that blast-off from $1000 would follow the realization that G-20 can do nothing to restore stability to the world’s tottering financial system. Now, the question is whether anything at all will be “realized” in the wake of the Pittsburgh meeting. We hesitate to call it a summit because the event seems to have slipped off the news media’s radar.  Unable to recall the actual » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday

A new strain of virus…

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 2:44 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.


Rick's Picks for Thursday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Hidden Pivot Calculator   Education Page
All Picks By Issue:

ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1057.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:36 am GMT

The futures dove hard yesterday afternoon after rallying moderately. The Wall Street Journal was hard-pressed to explain it, but we know better, since  a purely technical target at 1074.50 that was proffered here very nearly marked the top. The decline may have jolted some traders, but in Hidden Pivot terms it achieved nothing of interest on the hourly chart. A print down at 1047.50 was needed to turn the hourly chart bearish, but panicky sellers could muster only 1055.25.  As of early Wednesday evening, there were no compelling spots to try bottom-fishing. A midpoint support at 1055.75 was too close to the intraday low,  although its ‘d’ sibling at 1051.25 might be serviceable if you’re bored enough to force the trade.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:97.62)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Bid 2.05 for two November 95 puts (DAVWQ), day order.  That’s about what they should sell for if the Diamonds trade as high as yesterday’s opening price, 98.36. Stocks seemed too spooked at the close to suggest that that much of a recovery is likely, but DaBoyz will be doing their best to unload at at least somewhat higher levels, since they too were caught by surprise.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:186.21)

by Rick Ackerman on September 24, 2009 2:26 am GMT

I want to reiterate the 192.91 target, which looks as promising as ever (see chart), notwithstanding the fright-wig plunge into the close. We took a close look during yesterday’s tutorial session and saw a ripening short, presumably using out-of-the-money puts in the October series.

$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1289.20)

by Rick Ackerman on August 29, 2014 3:57 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1990.00)

by Rick Ackerman on August 29, 2014 3:35 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$CLV14 – October Crude (Last:93.76)

by Rick Ackerman on August 28, 2014 1:13 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1260.77)

by Rick Ackerman on August 28, 2014 1:00 am GMT

If the lunatic stocks are about to lead the broad averages higher, we should see Priceline bounce sharply from the 1259.21 midpoint support shown. Yesterday’s low came within 38 cents of this Hidden Pivot — close enough for the target to be considered fulfilled. Any further slippage, however, and its ‘D’ sibling at 1224.45 will be in play. This would imply that the stock market itself is likely to go nowhere, or possibly down, in the days ahead.  The stock would become shortable on a decisive breach of the red line (i.e., a breach of perhaps 0.30-0.60 cents0, but if you plan on getting short for the potential $35 ride south, you should initiate the trade on the 5-minute chart or less, using a corrective pattern that would subject you to no more risk theoretically than perhaps 0.15 per share. If the trade works and you are still short when 1224.45 is reached or closely approached, reverse the position and buy at the target aggressively using a tight stop.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:264.09)

by Rick Ackerman on August 26, 2014 7:35 am GMT

Tesla’s bullish rampage looks like it could hit 305.55 on the next big thrust.  Accordingly, I’ll recommend bidding 1.54 for the October 3/Sep 5  300 calendar spread 8 times, good till Friday. You should adjust your bid by 0.05 up or down for every 50 cents the stock moves above or below 262.50.  Please note as well that a pullback to the red line, a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 241.39, should be regarded as a buying opportunity, especially the calendar spread (albeit it at a much lower price). _______ UPDATE (August 26, 11:43 p.m. EDT):  Volatility has gotten crushed, and so you’re doing well if you buy the spread now for 1.34 (with TSLA at 262.00).  Since the spread price can fluctuate wildly from one day to the next, I’ll suggest that you recalibrate it hourly if you’re a buyer, using a spread price midway between bid and offer as “fair value.”  It has a delta value of around 9 at the moment, so you should adjust your bid for the spread by 0.01 for each 0.11 move in the underlying. _______ UPDATE (August 28, 9:45 p.m.):  With the Sep 5 calls melting away, the fair price for our spread must be recalculated several times daily by anyone seeking to buy it. It was a decent buy at Thursday’s close for around 1.20, but it could shed yet another 0.15-0.25 as the week ends.

$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:24.89)

by Rick Ackerman on August 25, 2014 12:05 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:100.89)

by Rick Ackerman on August 21, 2014 3:16 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:117.72)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2014 4:59 am GMT

Subscribers are working two bullish calendar spreads (x16), but I would suggest increasing the size of the position if TLT corrects down to the 115.18 target  shown.   For now , we are long September 20 118 calls against short August 19 118 calls that we will roll into August 29 calls this Thursday and Friday.  We’ve already done the roll twice, reducing the cost basis of the spread to 0.04. This week’s roll will entail covering (buying back) the short calls and shorting a like number of August 29 calls, effectively selling the August 22 118/August 29 118 calendar spread.

It was marked on Tuesday at 0.17, off a 0.26 offer, but any price higher than 0.04 will effectively turn the position we’ll have  – long the Sept 20 118/August 29 118 calendar — into a credit spread.  This means we can’t lose – will make a profit no matter what TLT does.  Ideally, come September 20 , TLT will be sitting at 118, our spread will be trading for around 0.50, and we’ll be carrying it for a credit of perhaps 0.50.  The imputed profit would be  $1600 — not bad, considering our risk is already close to zero.

My long-term outlook for T-Bonds is very bullish, a view that goes sharply against a consensus which clings to the belief that interest rates – and the stock market — can only go up.  That is a bet we should be eager to fade. We may have a chance to do so at still better odds if T-Bonds continue to  sell off  on the manufactured idea that the Jackson Hole conference will open the floodgates for more stimulus and inflation. _______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m.):  The Sep 20/Aug xx calendar spread is recommended at this point only for those who did the original spread, since there’s not enough time left on it to roll its cost basis down to zero or less (i.e., a credit). If you are new to the spread, try buying the Nov 20/August 29 calendar for 0.90 with TLT trading around 115.80.  The spread has a delta value of 0.20, implying that being long one spread is equivalent to being long 20 shares of stock.  This means that, using a spread price of 0.90 as a benchmark, you should adjust the price you pay for it by one penny, up or down, for each 5 cents that TLT moves away from 115.80. ______ UPDATE (August 23): The strategies detailed above continue to rack up solid gains for subscribers that have come with minimal risk. If you have yet to take a stake, I would strongly urge you to do so, and to monitor reports in the chat room from those who are working the order. If there are any questions about how, and when, to initiate a trade, please don’t hesitate to ask me or others about it. _______ UPDATE (August 26, 12:01 a.m.): These spreads are working well, to put it mildly — especially for subscribers who increased their position size as suggested whenever TLT was weak.  Check my August 26 posts in the chatroom for further, detailed guidance.  In brief, I am suggesting covering half of the 118-strike spreads for 0.90 or better this week, and to roll the short side of the Nov 22 120/Aug 29 120 to Sep 5. _______ UPDATE (August 28, 12:43 p.m.): The August 29 118 calls look likely to finish in-the-money. To avoid being exercised, make sure you roll into the September 5 calls before noon EDT Friday.  Currently, with TLT trading 119.09, the September 5 118/August 29 118 calendar spread is a decent sale for around 0.28.  Keep in mind that the spread could widen, to our great advantage, if TLT pulls back, since the August 29 calls we are short will shed value more precipitously than the September calls that we continue to hold as the long side of our position. Even so, you could do worse than take the 0.28 now and run, since it would simply fatten the premium we have taken in on the weekly short, increasing our net credit.  With TLT rallying liking a moofoo, the weekly credits will be more significant to our final gain than the calendar spread itself at expiration.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on October 16, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.