April 24th, 2014
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Topic of the Week

Credit Card Noose Tightens in Deflation

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:10 am GMT · 9 comments

When B of A spokesman Lawrence DiRita turned up on the evening news not long ago to assure listeners that his employer was willing to work on a case-by-case basis with troubled customers, we decided to call his bluff.  Would DiRita, formerly a high-ranking official in the Defense Department, go to bat for the borrower whose “teaser” loan from the bank was about to shoot up overnight from 0% to 12.24%?  Everyone with a credit card has been offered such a loan at one time or another, and it was once possible to initiate one at rates varying from 0% to 4%, with no additional fee for the balance transfer. Not any longer, though.  Anyone unfortunate enough to have gotten caught with a large balance when the » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Looking for signs of a top…

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:16 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:77.06)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:35 am GMT

The dollar’s recent low missed a Hidden Pivot target that I’d drum-rolled in my commentary by just 26 cents. I offered no target for the current DXY rally, but keep in mind that once it ends, I expect DXY to plummet all the way down to 72.93.  Moreover, DXY’s rally may just be getting started because the initial reversal off the 75.83 low (versus a 75.47 target) has had no problem generating bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart.  If true, this would mean gold will remain under pressure for a while — perhaps another 7-10 days. The good news is that it is already under pressure but still able to home in on $1000 nonetheless. If $1000 is cruising altitude, as would appear to be the case, that’s good news for long-term bulls.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1007.90)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Considering that Gold has simply been loitering near $1000, chat-room interest in the stuff seems somewhat fevered.  Relative to my forecast for the dollar and U.S. Treasurys (see today’s touts), I see bullion remaining under pressure for perhaps another week or two before it advances on a long-standing Hidden Pivot target at 1074.50.  I’ll be ready to reconsider if the December futures start pumping out some bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart (or even a mere 1001.70 on the 5-minute bars) , but until that time, keep the 970.80 downside target in mind as a worst-case number for the near term. _______ UPDATE (1:21 p.m.): We lucked out during this morning’s weekly tutorial session when a “camouflage” entry opportunity at 1004.50 popped up unexpectedly, allowed us to get long almost risklessly.  The ‘D’ target of the minor pattern used to make entry was 1005.70, but, as is the usual practice with camouflage entries, longs were to hold onto at least a small portion of their original positions for potentially bigger thrills ahead.  [Note:  Recordings of more than 30 Wednesday sessions are available to all seminar grads. The seminar fee includes three months’ access to the recordings, but if you’ve used that up, please contact mikej165@gmail.com to  renew.)

USZ09 – December T-Bond Futures (Last:43.86)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:54 am GMT

At yesterday’s peak, the futures were just a few ticks shy of a potentially important Hidden Pivot target at 121^31.  If it fails to contain the surge, however, look for another topping possibility at 122^22, a Hidden Pivot that you can short with a tight stop-loss. Switch to a 5-tick trailing stop on a pullback of  10 ticks, and use 121^24 as a minimum downside target.  A top of at least short-term significance is loosely corroborated by a 43.18 target for TBT that I disseminated in the chat room yesterday afternoon. ______ UPDATE: Both vehicles trashed their respective targets, stopping out anyone who attempted to go against the trend.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:96.22)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:04 am GMT

We can use a midpoint support at 96.97 this morning to attempt bottom-fishing in this vehicle. Bid 1.55 for two October 97 calls (DAVJS), but stop yourself out if the stock trades under 96.89.  DIA would be signaling more weakness over the near term to as low as 95.58 if the stop is hit. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  DIA was trading below the stop when the calls hit 1.55, but if you bought them anyway your loss on exit moments later would have been no worse than $12 per contract.  The 95.58 target is still valid.

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:524.65)

by Rick Ackerman on April 24, 2014 7:46 am GMT

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$+CLM14 – June Crude (Last:101.73)

by Rick Ackerman on April 23, 2014 4:41 pm GMT

The midpoint pivot at 101.28 that I’d flagged yesterday in the chat room as a place to try bottom-fishing appears to have served subscribers well. Several subscribers have reported getting long at that price ahead of the so-far 88-cent rally that has ensued. This morning’s low never exceeded the pivot by more than eight cents, and the rally since could have produced a gain of as much as $800 per contract for anyone who was aboard.  Because of the fills that were reported, I’m going to establish a tracking position for your further guidance. Assuming four contracts were entered initially, you should take partial profits on half now if you haven’t done so already. For tracking purposes, I’ll assume an exit at 101.80, a dime below where the futures are currently trading.

I’ll further suggest using an impulse leg-based stop on the 30-minute chart. This implies that a swoon now to 101.19 would take one out of the position. The stop-out price will rise to 101.45 if the current bar’s low, 101.72, becomes a point C low (where A=101.46 at 9:00 a.m. ET). _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. ET):  A very nasty downdraft has erased most of the rally in a single bar on the 30-minute chart.  Stick to the 101.19 stop for now, but use a breakeven stop if you held only one contract. _______ UPDATE (April 24, 1:06 a.m.): There were four swings in excess of 70 cents yesterday — not quite violent enough to dislodge us from our position.  For tracking purposes I am assuming that two contracts remain, with a profit adjusted cost basis of 100.48.  Exit one of the contracts now for around 101.70 (or catch-as-catch-can when you wake up, assuming you slept on the position); then, use an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the hourly chart to create a stop-loss for the last contract.  At this moment, that would imply stopping yourself out on an uncorrected plunge exceeding Wednesday’s 101.20 low.

ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1878.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 23, 2014 3:24 am GMT

The leaps have been opportunistic, powered by short-covering whenever the mood is right. Most of the time these days, however, the futures are taking mincing steps in both directions, creating a challenging environment for profit-seekers in the middle hours of the day. One thing to notice, however, is that the rallies, particularly in this vehicle, and whether weak or powerful, seldom proceed from the first signaled entry point.  Instead, the ‘money trades’ launch from a second or third point-C lows of ABCD patterns, and they do it with such repetitious reliability that one can practically discard the first signaled entry opportunities routinely. This is the kind of price action we might expect when ‘everyone’ thinks that stocks will move higher on a given day. ‘Everyone’ can be right, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can make money easily. For your interest today, I am including a chart that shows a modest rally target at 1895.00. I’m guessing it will be easier to get short there with a tight stop than to get long for the ride to it. However, because the futures will be in record territory at that point, we shouldn’t want to impede their progress too aggressively. _______ UPDATE (April 24, 12:50 a.m.):  With yesterday’s rally — nearly all of it achieved in a single, short-squeeze bar toward the end of the session — bears are now trapped between the all-time high and a lesser peak just below it. Their acute, growing discomfort will likely be tradable, but not by way of any specific guidance I am able to provide nine hours before the opening bell.  New record highs are coming, but for most traders, the process of getting there promises to be more pain than pleasure.

$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1230.18)

by Rick Ackerman on April 22, 2014 4:00 am GMT

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Since March 20, when GDXJ was trading for around $40, I have been looking for a potentially important low at 34.00.  More recently, I revised that target to exactly 33.76, a ‘Hidden Pivot support’. Yesterday it came within a single penny of nailing the exact low of a vicious swoon. The low may or may not prove to be the last gasp of a correction that has been in progress for the last five weeks, but it stood to be an opportune place to try bottom-fishing.  In that regard, quite a few subscribers reported getting aboard at or near the low, and so I’ve established a tracking position for their further guidance. It consists of 200 shares with a cost basis of 33.58. The price takes into account an initial purchase of 400 shares for 33.79, then the taking of a partial profit on half the position at 34.00.  The bounce so far has hit 34.90, meaning GDXJ has trampolined $1.14 cents since hitting my three-week-old target.  For now, traders should stop themselves out of the position if GDXJ breaches two prior lows on the 5-minute chart without an upward correction.  As of this moment, that would imply placing the stop at 34.37 (and remember: it must be exceeded by an unbroken, downtrending leg).  You should also offer a round lot (or half of the remaining position, whichever is greater) to close for 36.80, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (11:38 p.m. ET): The herky-jerky spasms in the first 90 minutes altered our stop-loss so that it would have taken a 34.07 print to stop us out — 23 cents beneath the actual low. I’ll now suggest raising the bar by using an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. That would imply a fall today touching 34.29.  Please note, however, that the stop could change if zig-zag action early in the session creates any distinctive new lows on the intraday charts. Our target for the next profit-taking interval is still 36.80. _______ UPDATE (April 23, 1:38 p.m. ET): A powerful surge today has hit a so-far high of 36.89, allowing anyone who was long to take a partial profit at 36.80 as suggested.  For tracking purposes I’ll assume 100 shares with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 30.36.  In practice, you should still be holding 25% of whatever position you acquired initially, with a 30.36 cost basis. For now, use no stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (April 24, 1:20 a.m.): For each round lot you hold, short one May 2 38 call if GDXJ gets within about 15 cents of 38.00.  At that price, the calls should fetch around 1.10-1.20.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.89)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 5:25 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^01)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week’s fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.


SIDE BETS for Wednesday

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 16.200)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:09 am GMT

The futures appear to be struggling too hard to get past a relatively modest resistance at 16.410 made last Friday on the way down.  Such a thrust would create a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts, but if it doesn’t happen, look for further consolidation over the near term to as a low as 15.680.


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