December 22nd, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

Credit Card Noose Tightens in Deflation

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:10 am GMT · 9 comments

When B of A spokesman Lawrence DiRita turned up on the evening news not long ago to assure listeners that his employer was willing to work on a case-by-case basis with troubled customers, we decided to call his bluff.  Would DiRita, formerly a high-ranking official in the Defense Department, go to bat for the borrower whose “teaser” loan from the bank was about to shoot up overnight from 0% to 12.24%?  Everyone with a credit card has been offered such a loan at one time or another, and it was once possible to initiate one at rates varying from 0% to 4%, with no additional fee for the balance transfer. Not any longer, though.  Anyone unfortunate enough to have gotten caught with a large balance when the » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Looking for signs of a top…

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:16 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:77.06)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:35 am GMT

The dollar’s recent low missed a Hidden Pivot target that I’d drum-rolled in my commentary by just 26 cents. I offered no target for the current DXY rally, but keep in mind that once it ends, I expect DXY to plummet all the way down to 72.93.  Moreover, DXY’s rally may just be getting started because the initial reversal off the 75.83 low (versus a 75.47 target) has had no problem generating bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart.  If true, this would mean gold will remain under pressure for a while — perhaps another 7-10 days. The good news is that it is already under pressure but still able to home in on $1000 nonetheless. If $1000 is cruising altitude, as would appear to be the case, that’s good news for long-term bulls.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1007.90)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Considering that Gold has simply been loitering near $1000, chat-room interest in the stuff seems somewhat fevered.  Relative to my forecast for the dollar and U.S. Treasurys (see today’s touts), I see bullion remaining under pressure for perhaps another week or two before it advances on a long-standing Hidden Pivot target at 1074.50.  I’ll be ready to reconsider if the December futures start pumping out some bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart (or even a mere 1001.70 on the 5-minute bars) , but until that time, keep the 970.80 downside target in mind as a worst-case number for the near term. _______ UPDATE (1:21 p.m.): We lucked out during this morning’s weekly tutorial session when a “camouflage” entry opportunity at 1004.50 popped up unexpectedly, allowed us to get long almost risklessly.  The ‘D’ target of the minor pattern used to make entry was 1005.70, but, as is the usual practice with camouflage entries, longs were to hold onto at least a small portion of their original positions for potentially bigger thrills ahead.  [Note:  Recordings of more than 30 Wednesday sessions are available to all seminar grads. The seminar fee includes three months’ access to the recordings, but if you’ve used that up, please contact mikej165@gmail.com to  renew.)

USZ09 – December T-Bond Futures (Last:43.86)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 12:54 am GMT

At yesterday’s peak, the futures were just a few ticks shy of a potentially important Hidden Pivot target at 121^31.  If it fails to contain the surge, however, look for another topping possibility at 122^22, a Hidden Pivot that you can short with a tight stop-loss. Switch to a 5-tick trailing stop on a pullback of  10 ticks, and use 121^24 as a minimum downside target.  A top of at least short-term significance is loosely corroborated by a 43.18 target for TBT that I disseminated in the chat room yesterday afternoon. ______ UPDATE: Both vehicles trashed their respective targets, stopping out anyone who attempted to go against the trend.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:96.22)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:04 am GMT

We can use a midpoint support at 96.97 this morning to attempt bottom-fishing in this vehicle. Bid 1.55 for two October 97 calls (DAVJS), but stop yourself out if the stock trades under 96.89.  DIA would be signaling more weakness over the near term to as low as 95.58 if the stop is hit. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  DIA was trading below the stop when the calls hit 1.55, but if you bought them anyway your loss on exit moments later would have been no worse than $12 per contract.  The 95.58 target is still valid.

$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:125.87)

by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2014 5:57 am GMT

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$USH15 – March T-Bonds (Last:143^19)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 5:29 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:24.72)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 4:03 am GMT

Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely.  I’m going to back up the truck myself — buying at either number or both, tightly stopped — and would do so not as a long-term play, but as a high-odds trade. Please note that although the 20.83 pivot has the potential to produce an important low, I’ve selected a chart that shows the alternative target at 17.30 so that you can judge for yourself how compelling it looks.  One further note:  Because yesterday’s plunge exceeded the previous bear-market low at 22.34 recorded on 11/5, it should have stopped out enough bulls to produce a spirited rally over the next day or two.  Under the circumstances, if such a rally fails to materialize, it would portend yet another wave of selling ahead. _____ UPDATE (December 17, 11:59 p.m.): Like gold futures, this vehicle rallied yesterday without quite reaching a downside target. That’s mildly bullish, but GDXJ will need to pop above 23.71 on Thursday to ‘actualize’ the encouraging start. ______ UPDATE (December 18, 8:39 p.m.): The nearest impediment to the rally lies at 25.18, a Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. Bulls can take encouragement if it’s exceeded — and perhaps get long if the ascent goes a bit further, exceeding the 25.62 peak and pulling back into a tradable ABC pattern.

$CLF15 – January Crude (Last:53.98)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2014 4:15 am GMT

Crude is getting kicked again Sunday night, although the January NYMEX contract is trading 85 cents off its low at the moment. The so-far low is 56.25, but I would expect the futures to get closer to my 55.43 target (see inset) before they attempt to rally in earnest. Night owls can try bottom-fishing using ‘camouflage’ nevertheless, but if you want to use a simpler, albeit riskier, strategy, you can bid 55.43, stop 55.34 for a single contract. I have difficulty imagining significantly more sinkage without a bounce from somewhere near here, but if the stop gets schmeissed, the next logical stop on the way down would be at 53.45, or 50.69 if any lower. However robust the bounce, assuming one comes, my bear-market target is still $31. The economic world would be a very different place at that point, and I don’t mean in a good way. _______ UPDATE (December 15, 10:39 p.m.): The 55.43 pivot is holding so far on a closing basis, having been exceeded intraday by 0.41 points. That’s more than I would have expected, but I still think we’ll see a strong rally from here, or from very near these levels, since the target is so clear and compelling. If not, and the futures continue their relentless plunge, the targets given above, 53.45 and thence 50,69, will obtain. Traders with no position, or those who are managing the risk of a short position, should note that the January contract was in an uptrend late Monday night that projected to exactly 56.13. You can find this target on the 15-minute chart using the following coordinates: a=55.17 (12/15 at 4:45 p.m. EST); b= 55.85 (6:45 p.m.); and c=55.45 (8:10 p.m.). This pattern looks reliable enough that we should infer more upside to come if 56.13 is exceeded by more 10-15 cents. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 9:33 a.m.): Crude fell this morning to a newe multiyear low at 53.60, just 15 cents from the target given above. If you caught the 1.16 bounce from the low, you should have taken a partial profit and secured what remains with an ‘impulsive stop-loss’.  The bounce is less than I might have expected, and if the low gets taken out we’ll likely be looking at more slippage to 50.69.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher.


SIDE BETS for Wednesday

SIZ09 – December Silver (Last: 16.200)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2009 1:09 am GMT

The futures appear to be struggling too hard to get past a relatively modest resistance at 16.410 made last Friday on the way down.  Such a thrust would create a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts, but if it doesn’t happen, look for further consolidation over the near term to as a low as 15.680.


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