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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
Let’s see how the futures react with an important Hidden Pivot target at 1134.50 before we assume that the next, 1174.90, is a done deal. And it will be, I should think, if the rally exceeds the lower number by more than 1.40 intraday or closes above it. Given the intensity of the rally, genuine camouflage is apt to be hard to find, but it bears noting that most of the impulse legs on the lesser charts yesterday did not try to be coy.
The futures looked bound for a minimum 17.965 when the closing bell rang yesterday, but if that Hidden Pivot fails to slow them down discernibly we could expect more upside to at least 18.375 over the near term. Action near that last number’s sibling midpoint at 17.250 tends to validate the pattern.
I hadn’t assumed getting to 1113.00 would entail such drudgery, although we should expect the futures to rip out our eyeballs if we were to act on any doubts about their ability to do so by selling the little monster short. In any event, I fear the target is too well advertised for us to short it aggressively. If you try anything at all, though, a 1114.25 stop-loss will be needed initially.
The dollar is sinking in night trading, with support in prospect most immediately at 74.910. We’ll use that Hidden Pivot midpoint as a minimum downside target for now, but if it gets shoved aside, look for more damage to as low as 74.440 over the near term. Alternatively, the futures would need to hit 75.515 today to turn the 30-minute chart bullish.
The Gold Bugs Index appears to be tracking a 488.79 projection made here a while back nicely, although there is a second, slightly higher, target at 489.04 that you can also use. Since a tradable pullback from either of those numbers seems highly likely, I would strongly suggest that long term bulls scale out some longs enroute to the target with the goal of replacing them at a lower price.
For six more measly cents, the dirtballs who ducked short-covering buyers on the opening yesterday could have squeezed the stock above yet one more external peak . The fact that it exceeded two such peaks is not exactly a sign of weakness, but it’s probably sufficient to cause us to infer that Goldman doesn’t have what it takes to reach new all-time highs. We’ll have to allow for the possibility nonetheless that shorts are going to remain on the hook, at least for the near term, and that the squeeze will intensify in the days ahead. If that’s about to happen, GS should hit be able to hit 184.88 today, slightly exceeding a daunting external peak on the hourly chart.
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Geithner Unconvincing as Friend of Dollar
by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2009 3:32 am GMT · 15 comments
The literary critic George Steiner has argued that Germany was unable to produce any great novelists in the post-War period because the German language itself had lost its integrity and vitality in the service of Hitler’s and Goebbels’ nefarious goals. Is it possible the English language is about to suffer a similar fate, vitiated by the lies our leaders tell to make the nation’s reckless economic policies somehow seem prudent? Consider U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s declaration concerning a “strong dollar” yesterday during a roundtable discussion in Tokyo for reporters: “I believe deeply that it’s very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar,” said » Read the full article