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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
From a Hidden Pivot perspective, Silver’s vital signs remain weaker than Gold’s. Even so, bottom-fishing at 18.275 can be tried if 18.540 (aka point ‘C’) has not been exceeded to the upside first. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint, and if it’s breached it would open a path down to as low as 18.015.
The futures ended the day on a mild upswing, but that does not negate the fact that earlier weakness had penetrated a midpoint support at 1087.25. This implied further downside to 1079.50, exactly four points beneath Friday’s intraday low. The mood could change over the weekend, of course, but we should use 1079.50 as a minimum downside objective as long as the relevant point ‘C’ at 1095.25 is not exceeded to the upside first. If it is, without the 1079.50 target being reached, that would have bullish implications for the near term. _______ UPDATE (12:20 a.m.): Shortly after midnight, the futures were playing chicken with the 1095.25 point ‘C’ noted above, but without having exceeded it. If DaBoyz were really interested in buying stocks, they’d have found a way to manipulate the index futures lower by a few points tonight, not higher. Be that as it may, the buzzards will probably be able to trigger a mini-short squeeze if they can push ES above 1095.25.
A key target at 1174.90 remains viable, but we’ll focus on a more conservative objective for now at 1155.60. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and it comes from the pattern shown in the accompanying chart. An easy move past it would activate another at 1158.20. These two numbers can be used by scalpers, but from an analytical standpoint any lack of resistance will confirm a swift finishing stroke to 1174.90.
Far from leading the market higher in its hour of need, Goldman has turned into the proverbial cement shoes, sinking whatever prospects remained for a year-end short-squeeze of the broad averages. The stock has had noticeable difficulty reaching even the Hidden Pivot midpoints of retracement rallies, and so we should now expect to see it achieve downside targets with consistency. The nearest lies at 168.33, and it can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term. The 161.84 target of a larger pattern remains viable as well.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Monday
(I have re-posted this link because the initial response was so heavy.) I have always expected the dollar’s collapse to happen in mere hours, not weeks or months. A blogger named John Galt has imagined how things will play out that day, and his scenario seems to me not merely plausible, but precisely inevitable. It would have bullish implications for commodity-based economies such as New Zealand’s, and this would seem to afford investors a relatively safe haven besides gold when the collapse comes to pass. Click here for Galt’s scary account of a stormy day that seems all but certain to arrive.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Gold’s Friends Now Outflank Its Foes
by Rick Ackerman on November 23, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 15 comments
In the Rick’s Picks chat room, where the focus is sometimes obsessively on gold, the meaning of “long-term” can range anywhere from 90 minutes to about three hours. Small wonder, then, that whenever Comex precious-metal futures hit an air pocket and briefly plunge, the shock waves wash over the room like a tsunami. In fact, these fleeting episodes mean nothing, considering that the larger, bullish environment for gold contains more testosterone than a Chicago stockyard. Who needs to worry about what those nasty, retrograde bullion bankers, commercial traders and by-now impotent central banks are » Read the full article