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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
The futures appeared bound Sunday night for 1128.70, a minor Hidden Pivot that is tied to a midpoint resistance at 1118.40. The rally would surpass some small peaks made on the way down Friday, but to qualify as impulsive on the 30-minute chart, it’d need to get past 1132.30 by day’s end. Our “gold standard” for a decisive turn, however, is still a print exceeding 1154.50.
Sunday’s night’s modest stab has reached 1102.00, but it will take at least 1104.25 before there’s something useful to notice about the hourly chart. As you can see, it would take only a small thrust to breach peaks #1 and #2 and create an impulse leg. If the thrust were to apex just a tick or two above #2, then pull back into a B-C retracement, that could conceivably create excellent conditions for a camouflaged entry. Don’t expect too terribly much, though, since there are no indications this would be the breakout that finally gets the futures to an 1128 target first identified here an eon ago.
The move from the December 1 low at 74.27 is still uncorrected, demonstrating once again that there is nothing so bullish, technically speaking, as a rally that is insanely overbought. This one most surely is, and it could become even moreso this week by surpassing two or three more external peaks. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, the nearest target we can use for a benchmark lies at 79.03, a Hidden Pivot. Its midpoint sibling is 78.36, exactly 0.22 points above Friday’s high. If the midpoint is easily breached, consider the higher target a done deal.
An unachieved downside target at 416.43 beckons, and so we’ll use it as a minimum objective for the correction begun on December 2. Alternatively, the Gold Bugs Index would need to reach 470.54 this week to turn the hourly chart unambiguously bullish.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Monday
“Deflation suddenly is looming, crowding out the prevalent global view that only higher inflation can possibly be ahead. QE (Quantatative Easing) isn’t working; money pumping, once thought a flawless cure for crises, now falls flat, from lack of confidence. QE is, in fact, having the opposite of the intended effect as it’s obviously a ploy, & QE simply adds to debt, which now chokes the holders. Gold can handle deflation nicely, but not much else can.”
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Our Man of the Year Is…Mr. Market!
by Rick Ackerman on December 21, 2009 4:59 am GMT · 4 comments
Time magazine chose Helicopter Ben as “Man of the Year,” supposedly because the financial system would have collapsed if not for the unprecedented emergency actions pursued by Mr. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve. We’d say the jury’s still out on that one, since Phase II of the central bank’s ingenious recovery plan – i.e., pray that the mountain of worthless debt still held by the banks eventually rises in value – has yet to bear fruit. We’re skeptical ourselves that this can or will ever occur, since there is no way the mortgage collateral that underlies much of that debt will ever return to anything remotely approaching the boom levels that obtained before the subprime lending market collapsed » Read the full article