Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Yesterday's low missed a 416.43 target by less than half-a-point, but this will have bullish implications only if HUI now reverses and hits 459.43.  A close below 416.43 would open a path to as low as 390.91 over the near term, but there would be a last-ditch opportunity to turn from 415.39, the midpoint pivot of the pattern shown in the chart.

A Hidden Pivot rally target at 78.35 should show some stopping power, but if DXY gets past it, look for the buying spree to continue to at least 78.72.  A move to the latter number would imply that February Gold is likely to find only fleeting support at 1090.

Yesterday's gap-up opening pointedly took out a midpoint resistance at 1104.50, all but guaranteeing a follow-through to the Hidden Pivot's 'D' sibling at 1120.25.  It can serve as our minimum upside objective for the near-term, but boarding the uptrend will have to be catch-as-catch-can, since the opportunity may be past by dawn.  If you miss the ride, shorts from 1120.25 are encouraged, stopped as tight as you can handle.

A major trendline and two notable Hidden Pivots come in around $1090, so we'll just have to cross our fingers. Gold is obviously a speculative buy here, but the chart leaves no doubt  that a decisive breach would grease the skids down to as low as  1028.  That was the point of departure for the powerful rally begun just before Halloween, and it is a logical downside target in the event of a breakdown. Traders looking for a camouflage opportunity to get long should focus on the three- and five-minute charts all the way down to 1086, since a false breakdown could conceivably need that much space to panic nervous traders.  (Late note: a midpoint support at 1093.30 must hold Monday night if a bullish turn is coming.  This appears unlikely at the moment.) 

The recent collapse of bond markets in Greece threatens the very stability of the European Union. Although there is talk of a bailout, the country may be too corrupt for a rescue attempt to do much good. How bad is it?  The answer to that question is startling, as the following report makes clear. It is from a Rick’s Picks subscriber who lives in Greece and believes the country’s economic potential is being squandered by a political spoils system that deeply permeates the business culture at all levels. He writes as follows: “Greece is a beautiful, mountainous country with diverse natural scenery. Geographically, it occupies the majority area of the ancient Hellenic world at the southern part of the Balkan peninsula and the eastern part of the European community. It has a land area of 130,800 square kilometers. Its coastline extends for 13,676 kilometers, with 227 inhabited islands that rest on a sea of amazing clarity. Historical monuments abound, making the land a virtual museum and attracting millions of tourists every year. It has a population, according to the 2001 census, of 10,964,020, and a per capita GDP of $30,681. It boasts the largest ownership of shipping tonnage (tanker and cargo) in the  world, with a total dwt of 141,931 thousand. It owns some of the largest natural resources in specific minerals in the EU, such as bauxite, magnetite, nickel, and perlite.  There are also has anhydrite, gypsum., bentonite, gold. cement, magnesium compounds, pumice, and of course marble. In addition it has large flocks of livestock and fish stock. The abundant sun shine and the winds make it potentially self sufficient in clean energy.  Naturally Blessed  “For all of its natural blessings, Greece is not producing sufficient wealth to repay its obligations. Foreign debt is estimated at € 200 billion. The