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Wednesday’s moderate weakness changed nothing in the immediate outlook. A print today above 1104.80 would turn the lesser charts bullish, and that external peak can be used to create a camouflaged entry opportunity if there’s a shallow pullback from just above it. However, if the selling continues, look for a potentially tradable bounce from somewhere in the range 1074.50-1075.90. _______ UPDATE (1:05 p.m. EST): This morning’s breach of the 1074.50-1075.90 bottoming range we’ve been using spells a 1039.20. A midpoint support at 1071.60 is all that stands between. For the April contract, that means 1072.50/1040.00.
Tiresome as these mini-explosions have become, we can’t afford to ignore the possibility that one of them is going to trigger a real short squeeze. That could happen as early as today if a follow-through to yesterday’s wilding spree pushes the futures above 1103.00. The accompanying chart shows how it would convert a garden-variety impulse leg into one with serious power. From there it would take just another nine points to take out a third external peak, presumably greasing the path upward through week’s end. _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m.): Ha-ha, very funny. The futures head-faked their way to 1103.50 overnight and then dropped dead. Go figure. Perhaps, for our watchful vigil, a nursemaid is called for, not a technician?
We hold two March 44 puts for 0.75. Cancel the order to short March 39 puts against them, and take partial profits by selling one of the puts market-on-open. Tie the other to a stop-loss at 45.73. _______ UPDATE (10:44 a.m.): The 1.27 we received for the put on the opening has effectively reduced the costs basis of the put that we still hold to 0.23. Now, offer a March 39 put short against it for 0.63, good till canceled.
My immediate target is still 79.05, but if that Hidden Pivot should be exceeded by more than 0.05-0.07 points, look for more upside to at least 79.40. That would obviously put downward pressure on silver and gold, but the latter would be an enticing speculative buy if the Feburary Comex contract happens to be trading at that time in the corrective target range noted in today’s Gold tout. One more note: If DXY closes above 79.40, brace for a finishing stroke to 79.90. _______ UPDATE (11:52 a.m. EST): DXY popped to within 0.02 points of the 79.05 target on the opening and then receded, presumably to recharge for the next thrust. The move created an additional target at 79.49 that may run into midpoint resistance at 79.12.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
The following describes how I usually manage the risk of a trade as it appproaches a price target:
Some successful traders say it matters less where one enters or exits a trade than how one manages its risks. One way we can keep risk tightly under control as a stock moves up or down is to use dynamic, or risk-adjusted, trailing stops. How do they work? To illustrate, let’s take the example of a trader who buys a hundred shares of XYZ stock at $62.00, with the intention of selling it when it reaches $65.00. In this instance the expected gain is $300, or $3 per share. But how much risk is acceptable? The answer, both initially and as the trade progresses, will depend on how and under what circumstances the trader determines to exit the position.
For instance, a prudent trader might decide before initiating a position that, once on board, he will risk no more than $1 to make $3 at any point along the way. Thus, with a target of $65, if he is able to buy 100 shares of XYZ for $62, he should use a $61 stop-loss initially, limiting theoretical loss to $1. (The risk is theoretical because in practice there is no assurance the trader will be able to get out of the position at the predetermined price. In fact, stop-loss orders are often executed at prices far worse than intended.) In this example, the stop-loss at $61 is referred to as “fixed” because it will remain unchanged as XYZ moves up or down within certain limits.
But let’s suppose the stock rises straightaway to $63.50. At that point the trader would have an unrealized gain of $1.50 per share, with additional profit potential of $1.50 per share (assuming as before that XYZ reaches its $65 target). Thus, with XYZ trading at $63.50 and a fixed stop-loss at $61, the trader’s risk:reward parameters will have changed for the worse, since he would then be risking $2.50 per share to make an additional $1.50. To bring risk and reward back into proper balance, the trader would need not only to raise his stop-loss, but to shrink it in proportion to the remaining potential gains. In this case, restoring a 1:3 relationship between risk and reward would require raising the stop-loss to $63.00.
Let’s do the math. XYZ is at $63.50, promising an additional $1.50 per share of profits if it reaches $65. However, if the stock should fall back to $63.00, where we’ve placed the new stop-loss, the trader would lose 50 cents per share of his paper gains. That is the same as saying risk:reward is 1:3, so the trader is back on track. In practice, the trailing stop will need to be raised each time the stock moves closer to the target, and it will also have to be narrowed in proportion to remaining expected gains. Thus, if the stock climbs to $64.50, it will require a stop at $64.33 to maintain the 1:3 relationship between risk and reward. This is risk management at work, using a technique that can be applied to any trade.









A True Believer Is Relaxed About Gold
by Rick Ackerman on January 28, 2010 1:23 am GMT · 13 comments
While Rick’s Picks has focused with bland, mechanical detachment on the technical picture in gold and silver, we rely on our friend Chuck Cohen, a New York-based gold consultant, to stir readers’ imaginations when they think about how high gold shares and bullion could eventually go. We asked Chuck for his current thoughts, and he kindly obliged, even though he was ensconced in a hammock in Puerto Vallarta, sipping a margarita, when we called.
** The single most important point remains that you keep your perspective fixed on the long-term picture. In spite of all of the monetary stimulation and frantic attempts to prop up a decaying system, the economy and the financial structure are still a mess, with no » Read the full article