Friday, January 29, 2010

If Apple falls to 195.32 with two hours or more left in the session, buy a round lot there, stop 195.04. I'll update my guidance if the order fills and survives for at least an hour. _______ UPDATE:  Apple crushed the pivot, falling to 194.10 and stopping us out for a nominal loss of at least $28.  This implied more downside over the near term, although there were no compelling Hidden Pivot targets to offer.

My short-term outlook calls for perhaps another 2-3 days of corrective action before the futures attempt to take on resistance just above 119. If in the meantime they pull back to 117^31 without have exceeded 118^23 to the upside first, bid for a single contract at that price, stop 117^28. _______ UPDATE:  Bids at 117^31 would have been stopped out for a loss of $100 plus slippage, since the futures groped their way down to 117^23 before finding a temporary bottom.  The breach of the midpoint support is a bearish sign for the near term and suggests that more corrective action is likely.

Yesterday's slight breach of the targeted bottoming range implies more weakness ahead.  However, there are three places where the futures could turn and perhaps even reverse the downtrend:  at 1078.50, 1071.60, or 1069.50.  The first and last of these numbers can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss, but a breach of the lowest would shorten the odds of a downdraft to 1039.20., a key Hidden Pivot flagged here earlier.

There is carnage on the daily chart that has yet to be confirmed by Gold, and it would grow far worse with just 20 cents of additional slippage beneath Thursday's low. That would extend the bearish impulse leg begun ten days ago past a second "external" low at 15.835 recorded back in September, increasing the potential power and longevity of the move.  My immediate downside target is 15.745, subject to last-ditch support at its sibling midpoint, 16.035.  Alternatively, it would take a thrust above 16.785 today to turn the hourly chart unambiguously bullish.

The futures were breaking down around 1 a.m. EST, bound for a Hidden Pivot support at 1061.25 after having trounced a midpoint pivot at 1075.00.  There was one additional, minor support at 1066.50, but it is only  at the lower number where I'd suggest bottom-fishing with a stop-loss at 1060.25.   If DaBoyz are preparing to spring a bear trap, it would clamp shut with a push above 1083.75.

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