Wednesday, April 14, 2010

I broached a 607.98 target today in the chat room, but let me repeat it here to make it official. It has already been corroborated by a stall in late March near the 573.84 midpoint, which can be used for bottom-fishing in the event of a pullback before GOOG makes its final ascent. Camouflage for bulls will be hard to come by after yesterday's moon shot, but if you're looking for it, I'd suggest watching for ABCs on the 3-minute chart or less.

A midpoint support beckons at 1147.90 and can be bottom-fished with a four-tick stop-loss, provided the point 'C' of the pattern, 1154.30, has not been breached to the upside.  If the futures rise instead, they'd change the tenor of the lesser charts to bullish with a print exceeding 1158.80.  For a bigger picture please refer to today's commentary, which reiterates my requirements for a strong push up to $1245.

May Silver's last thrust exceeded an 18.585 target by two cents, implying that there are more buyers out there waiting to be satisfied. Assuming the  pullback begun from Monday's high is prelude to a follow-through rally, the rally would need to clear January's 18.900 high to fully re-energize the bull trend.  It could begin from any retracement low north of 17.335 and would be announced by a booster stage thrust of at least 55 cents.

I'm not going to lie and tell you how jazzed I am about the prospect of shorting 1202.50, stop 1204.25.  It's a Hidden Pivot all right, and it seems likely to show some stopping power. But we shouldn't kid ourselves about a possible Mother of All Tops.  Ordinarily this trade would get a three tick stop-loss, but we'll give it a little more because...well, you never know.  If we lose the $87 that's theoretically at risk, just remember that the last few winners in the E-Mini produced enough in theoretical gains to offset scores of $87 losers.  ______ UPDATE:   There's $87.50 we can kiss good-bye!  But it bought us the near-certitude that ESM10 is about to cruise on up to at least 1212.50 over the very near term.  Short there too, please, stop 1214.25.

Although there is no denying we are living in Interesting Times, who could have imagined we'd see a day so profoundly uneventful that NBC would lead Tuesday's newscast with a letter from three astronauts lambasting Mr. Obama for giving up on space exploration?  As if to drive home the fact of yesterday's news void, Brian Williams' second story concerned a Toyota recall due to alleged rollover problems with the big SUV.  If the importance of news could be measured using Bollinger Bands, they'd have kissed yesterday.

Although Comex Gold missed a bullish trigger point by a hair the other day and has since sold off by about 2% , we expect the loss to be easily recouped, and gold quotes to be bounding sharply higher, by no later than next mid-week. Readers may recall that we recently projected a surge in June Gold to at least $1245 once $1171.80 was exceeded. A thorough explanation of the proprietary method we used to forecast this outcome, as well as details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar,  can be accessed by clicking here.  Suffice it to say, on Monday, gold futures tiptoed to within an inch of our threshold, peaking at 1170.70.  A further rally of $1.20 would have done the trick, but it was not to be; instead, the futures retreated without having exceeded the resistance peak shown in the chart below. The resistance is what we refer to as a “look-to-the-left” peak. It is just obscure enough that not all chartists and traders, even diligent ones, will tend to notice it.  But we most surely do, since, according to the Hidden Pivot Method, each discrete upthrust must surpass at least two prior peaks to re-energize the bull trend.  When a rally narrowly fails to do this, we usually infer that buyers are a bit timid. In this case, however, although the rally appears to have chickened out just shy of the “look-to-the-left” peak at 1171.80, it did so after having surpassed no fewer than four other resistance peaks. We’ve labeled them in the chart above and note that the peaks #3 and #4 are “external” highs whose breach implies more buying power than the breach of “internal” peaks #1 and #2. What to Look For… In this context, we should think of gold’s recent rally from 1086.10