October 21st, 2014
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Are Your Ready for the Big One?

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 12:41 am GMT · 45 comments

The Dow looks to be in the throes of a 420-point plunge, even if sellers were unable to deliver the haymaker yesterday that would have put bulls down for the count. At the final bell, the drop amounted to only 144 points, although it would have been closer to 200 points at the day’s lows.  If our prediction of a further 276-point fall over the very near-term pans out, pushing the blue chip average slightly below 10000, that would be just a very small downpayment on all of the plunging the Dow will still have to do to catch up with a U.S. and global economy that have begun to relapse into deep coma. Dow 5000, anybody?  Whatever happens, it seems clear already that the highs » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Coffee Klatch

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 4:03 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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USU10 – September T-Bonds (Last:134^08)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 3:15 am GMT

September T-Bonds (USU10) price chart with targetsIt’s explosive days like yesterday that serve to remind us of Bonds’ strong propensity to go against weakness in the broad averages. To the extent I am increasing the drum beat for the “sky-is-falling” argument, I am implicitly saying that a powerful upthrust awaits in this vehicle.  More immediately, and considering the ease with which the 134^09 Hidden Pivot gave way, I’ll hang a 135^09 target out as a minimum upside objective for now — and 140^20 if it fails..  The provenance of the first number is shown in the accompanying chart, but there are any number of other bullish ABCs that I could have used.  Anyway, we are not trying to short this vehicle so much as find explanations for the behavior of other markets that take their cues from it.  Meanwhile, it cannot make anyone feel “safer” that so much of the world’s investment capital is pouring into one allegedly “safe” haven.  As Marc Faber has said, people will want to cross the icy river where the greatest number of people are crossing it, but that’s hardly the way to ensure one’s safety.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:82.53)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 3:43 am GMT

NYBOT Dollar Index (DXY) price chart with targetsThis week’s consolidation has occurred entirely below an 83.03 peak recorded on July 23, so the potency of the larger, bullish pattern begun on August 6 is suspect. It projects to 84.30, but because the pattern itself is sausage-y, we should assume for starters that more consolidation is needed before much of anything happens for bulls.

September E-Mini S&P (ESU10) price chart with targetsI drum-rolled a 1040.25 downside target in the chat room yesterday, and it still looks like a no-brainer. A plunge to that number should be viewed as likely if and when the midpoint support with which it is associated, 1069.25, gives way. The so-far three-tick penetration of the support was not sufficient for us to have inferred that the jig was up yet for DaSleazeballs, who were hard at work near the close attempting to make a distribution opportunity out of a pathetic five-point rally.

GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1233.40)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 4:00 am GMT

The futures at least crept past the lower of two rally targets we’ve been using, 1236.70, and now presumably will take on the second at 1244.20. As noted here earlier, scale-out profit-taking is advised for swing traders still long, as well as the use of a “dynamic” trailing stop as described on this site’s educational page.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:40.34)

by Rick Ackerman on October 21, 2014 9:42 am GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:163.65)

by Rick Ackerman on October 21, 2014 3:24 am GMT

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$ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1897.50)

by Rick Ackerman on October 21, 2014 2:25 am GMT

The market has gone ornery and untradable on us, presumably because everyone and his mother is going at it with the same idea of getting short. Although yesterday’s forecast here got the trend right and even nailed the intraday high, 1902.50, to the exact tick, the prediction was valueless for trading purposes. That’s because the ratcheting, exceedingly tedious rally generated a string of minor corrections that were equal to or greater than each subsequent leg up. Not exactly the risk:reward proposition we are looking for.  I proffered a still higher target at 1911.00 if 1902.50 was exceeded, which it has been in after-hours trading.  Night owls can use their own judgment to determine how to catch the implied ride north, but I wouldn’t look for easy pickings if there’s still a few points left in the move at Tuesday’s opening bell.

$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1236.60)

by Rick Ackerman on October 20, 2014 12:47 am GMT

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$CLX14 – November Crude (Last:83.00)

by Rick Ackerman on October 17, 2014 1:15 am GMT

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:122.01)

by Rick Ackerman on October 17, 2014 12:01 am GMT

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$USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:143^08)

by Rick Ackerman on October 16, 2014 6:43 am GMT

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$HGZ14 – December Copper (Last:3.0100)

by Rick Ackerman on October 6, 2014 9:30 am GMT

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$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3400)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668.  If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23):  Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT):  The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago. _______ UPDATE (October 12, 9:20 p.m.): The stock has come down hard after peaking three weeks ago at 0.34, but I view the move as a corrective opportunity to accumulate more shares.


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