September 22nd, 2014
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Are Your Ready for the Big One?

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 12:41 am GMT · 45 comments

The Dow looks to be in the throes of a 420-point plunge, even if sellers were unable to deliver the haymaker yesterday that would have put bulls down for the count. At the final bell, the drop amounted to only 144 points, although it would have been closer to 200 points at the day’s lows.  If our prediction of a further 276-point fall over the very near-term pans out, pushing the blue chip average slightly below 10000, that would be just a very small downpayment on all of the plunging the Dow will still have to do to catch up with a U.S. and global economy that have begun to relapse into deep coma. Dow 5000, anybody?  Whatever happens, it seems clear already that the highs » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Coffee Klatch

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 4:03 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Friday
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USU10 – September T-Bonds (Last:134^08)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 3:15 am GMT

September T-Bonds (USU10) price chart with targetsIt’s explosive days like yesterday that serve to remind us of Bonds’ strong propensity to go against weakness in the broad averages. To the extent I am increasing the drum beat for the “sky-is-falling” argument, I am implicitly saying that a powerful upthrust awaits in this vehicle.  More immediately, and considering the ease with which the 134^09 Hidden Pivot gave way, I’ll hang a 135^09 target out as a minimum upside objective for now — and 140^20 if it fails..  The provenance of the first number is shown in the accompanying chart, but there are any number of other bullish ABCs that I could have used.  Anyway, we are not trying to short this vehicle so much as find explanations for the behavior of other markets that take their cues from it.  Meanwhile, it cannot make anyone feel “safer” that so much of the world’s investment capital is pouring into one allegedly “safe” haven.  As Marc Faber has said, people will want to cross the icy river where the greatest number of people are crossing it, but that’s hardly the way to ensure one’s safety.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:82.53)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 3:43 am GMT

NYBOT Dollar Index (DXY) price chart with targetsThis week’s consolidation has occurred entirely below an 83.03 peak recorded on July 23, so the potency of the larger, bullish pattern begun on August 6 is suspect. It projects to 84.30, but because the pattern itself is sausage-y, we should assume for starters that more consolidation is needed before much of anything happens for bulls.

September E-Mini S&P (ESU10) price chart with targetsI drum-rolled a 1040.25 downside target in the chat room yesterday, and it still looks like a no-brainer. A plunge to that number should be viewed as likely if and when the midpoint support with which it is associated, 1069.25, gives way. The so-far three-tick penetration of the support was not sufficient for us to have inferred that the jig was up yet for DaSleazeballs, who were hard at work near the close attempting to make a distribution opportunity out of a pathetic five-point rally.

GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1233.40)

by Rick Ackerman on August 20, 2010 4:00 am GMT

The futures at least crept past the lower of two rally targets we’ve been using, 1236.70, and now presumably will take on the second at 1244.20. As noted here earlier, scale-out profit-taking is advised for swing traders still long, as well as the use of a “dynamic” trailing stop as described on this site’s educational page.

$+RGLD – Royal Gold (Last:66.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 12:01 am GMT

The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target.  It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains.

$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:172.61)

by Rick Ackerman on September 19, 2014 2:16 am GMT

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17266)

by Rick Ackerman on September 19, 2014 1:52 am GMT

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$YHOO – Yahoo! (Last:42.71)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2014 5:28 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:18.655)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2014 1:25 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:22.49)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 6:06 am GMT

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:113.11)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2014 1:29 am GMT

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$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2562)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:279.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 3, 2014 5:30 am GMT

Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07.  This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled.  Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread.  We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.

+GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:37.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 2, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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