The Dow looks to be in the throes of a 420-point plunge, even if sellers were unable to deliver the haymaker yesterday that would have put bulls down for the count. At the final bell, the drop amounted to only 144 points, although it would have been closer to 200 points at the day’s lows. If our prediction of a further 276-point fall over the very near-term pans out, pushing the blue chip average slightly below 10000, that would be just a very small downpayment on all of the plunging the Dow will still have to do to catch up with a U.S. and global economy that have begun to relapse into deep coma. Dow 5000, anybody? Whatever happens, it seems clear already that the highs » Read the full article
It’s explosive days like yesterday that serve to remind us of Bonds’ strong propensity to go against weakness in the broad averages. To the extent I am increasing the drum beat for the “sky-is-falling” argument, I am implicitly saying that a powerful upthrust awaits in this vehicle. More immediately, and considering the ease with which the 134^09 Hidden Pivot gave way, I’ll hang a 135^09 target out as a minimum upside objective for now — and 140^20 if it fails.. The provenance of the first number is shown in the accompanying chart, but there are any number of other bullish ABCs that I could have used. Anyway, we are not trying to short this vehicle so much as find explanations for the behavior of other markets that take their cues from it. Meanwhile, it cannot make anyone feel “safer” that so much of the world’s investment capital is pouring into one allegedly “safe” haven. As Marc Faber has said, people will want to cross the icy river where the greatest number of people are crossing it, but that’s hardly the way to ensure one’s safety.
This week’s consolidation has occurred entirely below an 83.03 peak recorded on July 23, so the potency of the larger, bullish pattern begun on August 6 is suspect. It projects to 84.30, but because the pattern itself is sausage-y, we should assume for starters that more consolidation is needed before much of anything happens for bulls.
I drum-rolled a 1040.25 downside target in the chat room yesterday, and it still looks like a no-brainer. A plunge to that number should be viewed as likely if and when the midpoint support with which it is associated, 1069.25, gives way. The so-far three-tick penetration of the support was not sufficient for us to have inferred that the jig was up yet for DaSleazeballs, who were hard at work near the close attempting to make a distribution opportunity out of a pathetic five-point rally.
The futures at least crept past the lower of two rally targets we’ve been using, 1236.70, and now presumably will take on the second at 1244.20. As noted here earlier, scale-out profit-taking is advised for swing traders still long, as well as the use of a “dynamic” trailing stop as described on this site’s educational page.
Tesla got short-squeezed to within 28 cents of the 86.72 target I’d proffered early Monday morning, but a second-wind rally to 88.00 suggests it’s got eyes for 104.44, the ‘D’ target associated with the first number. It can serve as a minimum upside objective for now, implying that all trades between here and there be positioned from the long side. We’ll plan on buying weekly puts if and when the target is reached, provided it happens before Wednesday of the given week. Please note as well that a lesser Hidden Pivot at 94.19 (see inset) has the potential to stop the rally cold and can therefore be used for spec camouflage shorts.
All signs point higher at the moment, but even Google will have to top somewhere. My best-bet for a short-able apex is 929.78, the Hidden Pivot target of a well-defined ABCD on the monthly chart (see inset). You can try shorting with camouflage at that number, or at the D target (in purple) of the lesser pattern, but until then all trades should incorporate a bullish bias.