Friday, February 18, 2011

GCJ11 – April Gold (Last:1384.10)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A Hidden Pivot target at 1394.80 remains viable as a minimum upside objective for the near term, but please note that it is closely coincident with a distinctive high at 1394.70 recorded on January 13.  What this implies from an analytical standpoint is that any thrust that gets past both resistances easily will be telegraphing a test of December's all-time high, 1434.10.

Synchronous Tops Lining Up

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

With respect to the potentially important top I've been projecting for the stock market, Apple's shares appear to be out-of-sync following yesterday's nearly 5-point decline.  However, the Industrial Average and the E-Mini S&Ps are still tracking Hidden Pivot rally targets very precisely and will achieve them on moves that exceed yesterday's highs by, respectively, 108 points and 16 points. Even if Apple fails to reach its target, shorts advised in the other vehicles remain viable.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:36.74)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

So much for our stink bid.  For now, we'll put aside plans to buy the stock, since we should prefer to do so on weakness. For what it's worth, there's a Hiden Pivot at 37.02 that seems likely to show some stopping power. It lies just a nickel above yesterday's high. ______ UPDATE (11:05):   My apologies for not supplying a minimum rally target above 37.02, since the 38.62 achieved thus far was almost precisely predictable via the coordinates (on the 60-minute chart): A=30.560, B=35.550, C=33.600, for C=38.59. _______ FURTHER UPDATE:  Wow!  Because SLW has blown past the target by 15 cents, let me put a more important one in play:  45.01.  Its provenance and pedigree are shown in the chart, along with a 'p' midpoint at 36.93 that until this morning had precisely contained the uptrend for three days.

SIH11 – March Silver (Last:32.105)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver grabbed the bad guys -- J.P. Morgan chief among them, supposedly -- by the cahones in the wee hours yesterday, disdaining to let go. The resulting short-squeeze pulped a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 31.485, shortening the odds that buyers will continue their romp to at least 32.525, a target proffered here earlier. One more resistance has come into the picture -- 32.175 -- and longs should exercise particular caution there, either through partial-profit taking and/or the use of a trailing stop.  If you're flat and eager to try shorting, a 32.190 stop-loss is suggested. _______ UPDATE (10:53 a.m. EST):  Bullseye! If you shorted 32.175 as suggested, that's the high tick of the day so far -- the exact peak of a powerful, 60-cent rally.  The 7-cent pullback that ensued should have been used as an opportunity to take a partial profit sufficient, at least, to avoid any loss when SI blows through the high and heads toward 32.525, as it surely will. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (12:04 EST):  Holy smokes! New target, just posted in chat room: 34.665.  It is clear on the daily chart, where A=22.910 on October 22.

ESH11 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1337.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

If you used the very tight, 1.00-point stop loss advised, you're short from 1339.25 and have covered half the position at 1336.25. (This action was purely mechanical, based on a risk:reward of 1:3 held constant throughout the trade. Since initial theoretical risk was 1.00, we needed at least 3.00 points of favorable movement before we took our first partial profit.) For your further guidance, I'll assume two contracts remain. Cover one at 1333.50, but tie the bid to a one-cancels-other order buy-stopping two contracts at 1340.25.  On a profit-adjusted basis, we are short the two contracts with a 1342.25 basis.  If you initiated the trade on a single contract, use a 1340.25 stop-loss, switching to a 2.50-point trailing stop and a 1327.00 minimum target if 1332.25 is touched.  We will re-short if the futures surge to 1356.00, but the trade should be initiated using camouflage.  Unofficially, however, you can use a 1357.75 stop-loss. ______ UPDATE (10:48 a.m. EST): We exited the position six minutes ago, buying back the shorts at 1340.25 for a theoretical gain of $200.  Next stop for this meth-crazed Mother of All Bear Rallies:  1356.00.

Bankruptcy of Borders Darkens ‘Recovery’ Story

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Every time we read or hear about the supposed economic recovery, or about how the Fed has raised its “growth” target for the next quarter, we are reminded that the nation’s retail sector -- like its real estate sector -- remains an absolute, unmitigated, Katie-bar-the-door disaster. Yesterday it got even worse when Borders Group declared bankruptcy. This is bad news for those who love books, of course, since the firm’s megastores, which average about 25,000 square feet in size, are a great place to browse. But it is even worse news for mall operators who count Borders as a major tenant.  In the Boulder, Colorado, area where we live, there were three giant Borders stores until a few years ago, when one in the heart of the city’s shopping district closed. The space has remained vacant ever since, a drain on the owner -- but also a huge dead zone on a street where retailers are struggling to survive.  The bankruptcy will force the closing of a second megastore located at 29th Street Mall. That will be quite a blow to the developer, Maserich, since they’ve  been dealing with a few other large vacancies and the closure of several large restaurants. The Borders store there occupies two big floors on the mall’s most heavily trafficked corner, and we cannot imagine another tenant big enough to fill the space. Even if such a tenant existed, they would probably be able to find cheaper space at a soon-to-be-vacant building nearby that currently houses Ultimate Electronics, a big-box chain store that also declared bankruptcy this month. Post-Christmas Exodus The third Borders store in the immediate area is located in the Flatiron Mall in Broomfield, about a mile from our home and eight miles from Boulder. Although there has been no announcement yet concerning whether