Price action early Thursday night was too impacted to speculate on what kind of shenanigans the night-shift dirtballs might have in mind for later. Check back around 2 a.m. EDT, since I’ll be putting out an update if anything significant has changed.
From the monthly archives:
March 2011
I’m still looking for a potentially important top just above these levels – and suggesting, for starters, that you short 1334.25 with a one-point stop-loss. There’s another compelling Hidden Pivot slightly above it, at 1336.50, but that one — or any rally that surpasses it slightly — would need to be shorted via camouflage due to the close proximity of previous highs (aka “structural resistance”) recorded in mid-February. _______ UPDATE (2:43 a.m.): My knack for making dumbfounding mistakes in the worst places produced a recommendation to short this vehicle at 1324.25. It was 1334.25 that I’d intended, and I have change the number above accordingly. The position can be scratched at the moment, since the futures are flatlining at 1324.50. I apologize for the error.
The chart shown got some close scrutiny during a recent tutorial session, and I am still strongly suggesting that you look to get short at exactly 12409, a compelling Hidden Pivot target that sits “in the middle of nowhere,” just the way I like ‘em. We also discussed how the futures blew through the 12259 midpoint resistance, affirming that the higher number is extremely likely to be reached before buyers reach the point, possibly, of terminable fatigue.
Night owls could have taken an exhilarating 87-cent ride from within a penny-and-a-half of yesterday’s low if they’d used the Hidden Pivot support at 36.915 I’d flagged. A subsequent update based on a rally target at 38.605 advised a 40-cent trailing stop that would have triggered at 37.370, yielding a theoretical gain of $2275 per contract for any long position held at that point. Tonight, your best odds for bottom-fishing would come at exactly 37.245, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the corrective pattern shown. Notice that I have used a distinctive one-off ‘A’ rather than the obvious one to produce this target. ______ UPDATE (12:36 p.m. EDT): The futures bottomed 13 cents above the support noted above, and although that is prospectively a bullish sign for the near term, the rally has bogged down Thursday with the creation of ”dueling impulse legs” on the hourly chart. This suggests that it could be another day or two before the May contract resumes its upward trek. The minor bull cycle projects to 38.850, a Hidden Pivot that would become an odds-on shot if the futures settle today above its sibling midpoint, 37.645.
The futures held above a 1411.00 midpoint support yesterday, sparing us whatever anxiety we might have felt if the slippage had continued to the Hidden Pivot’s ‘d’ sibling, 1397.00. The subsequent rally created a minor, bullish impulse leg, but it was later neutralized by the minor, bearish leg that followed. Thursday’s action looks like a coin-toss at the moment, but night owls can nonetheless try bottom-fishing at 1417.70, stop 1417.30. _______ UPDATE (12:2 p.m. EDT): The correction reversed well shy of the 1417.70 midpoint, telegraphing the strong rally that has followed. It projects to 1473.10, subject to a possible stall near a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1442.30. A two-day close above that number would augur a smooth flight to the target.
This session was open to all Rick’s Picks subscribers, since the focus was on leveraging a cluster of Hidden Pivots that, taken together, strongly hint of an important top. We traced the provenance of two such targets in the E-Mini S&P and also found a new one in the Mini-Dow at 12409. Not wanting to waste the opportunity presented by a possible last-gasp rally, we looked for camouflage entry spots for bullish trades in the mini-index futures. Even if the stock market doesn’t collapse after hitting our targets, we expect to make money on short trades by managing risk scrupulously.
A move just one tick above yesterday’s high would create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. While that wouldn’t be very significant by itself, it could energize a much larger, bullish pattern with the potential to push the buck to a Hidden Pivot at 1.0380; or thence, possibly, to 1.0799.
We are looking to buy 400 shares, but only on perfect terms. Yesterday our 41.96 bid fell 11 cents shy of the actual low from which SLW took a strong bounce. Today we’ll try bidding again at 42.51, three cents above a promising Hidden Pivot support at 42.48. A 12-cent-stop-loss is suggested. _______ UPDATE (1:38 p.m EDT): We’ll continue to use stink bids in this stock, since I don’t trust the rally. Although buyers of precious-metal shares are ostensibly the good guys, the way they have been manipulating SLW in particular has been viciously predatory. Gap-up and gap-down openings are occurring on most days, and buyers who have been suckered by the former will eventually dry up, allowing the stock to experience genuine weakness at the bell that will properly set the tone for the entire session. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (1:54 p.m. EDT): I’m establishing a tracking position of 400 shares, since two subscribers reported fills at 42.50 that held using a slightly wider stop-loss than I’d advised. The actual low was 42.27, and SLW has rebounded smartly since, touching 43.17. A further push above 43.64 today would leave the bulls in good position to go marauding next week.
Bulls were giving up hard-won ground Tuesday night, but we should take encouragement nonetheless from the fact that the finishing stroke to yesterday’s rally exceeded the 37.100 midpoint of the pattern shown. A further rally to 37.350 is implied, although caution is warranted at the moment because the lesser charts suggest bulls and bears may skirmish overnight before the former can regain control. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 36.915, a Hidden Pivot that can be found on the one-minute chart (A=37.170, B=37.020, C=37.065). _____ UPDATE (10:52 p.m. EDT): A four-tick stop-loss would have gotten you aboard, since the low so far tonight has been 36.900. Use a 36.935 stop-loss for now, switching to a trailing stop that suits your style if and when 37.100 is exceeded to the upside. The Hidden Pivot at 37.350 noted above can be used for a minimum target if the rally catches fire. FURTHER UPDATE (1:50 a.m. EDT): The futures have rocketed to within a penny of the target, so at least half the position should have been exited for a substantial gain. For purposes of determining a trailing stop for what remains, use a 38.605 rally target, since that’s the next important stop on the way to Valhalla. FURTHER UPDATE (2:08 a.m): Based on a so-far high, as of the moment, at 37.390, you could use a trailing stop as wide as 40 cents. If you initiated the original trade on a single contract, stop yourself out if a bearish impulse leg forms on the one-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply a drop to 37.250.
Gold’s next big push should be good for a gain of at least $60, to just under $1,500, but the futures look like they’re in no hurry to get airborne. At the moment, actually, they appear vulnerable to weakness that could reach 1397.00 if sellers step up the pace. Their aggressiveness would be telegraphed by a decisive penetration of the 1411.00 midpoint associated with 1397.00. This last number is a Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished via camouflage or with a 1397.20 bid, stop 1396.40.
