December 22nd, 2014
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[Dr. Kurt Richebächer was one of the most visible and vocal proponents of Austrian School economics at the time of his death in 2007.  Eight years earlier, at the height of the dot-com bubble, we interviewed him for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner.  In retrospect, the economic problems that he believed threatened the global economy were small and relatively manageable back then. The same problems are of course still with us, and Richebächer undoubtedly would be appalled by the extent to which they have metastasized.

Although he spoke of a deflationary collapse in the interview, a close reading of his monthly newsletter from 1997-2002 reveals that he was conflicted on the subject. He used the word “deflation” only rarely during that period, and when he did, his logic became uncharacteristically muddy. Perhaps this is because, in the Austrian scheme of things, spectacular credit blowouts are not supposed to beget deflation, but rather, inflation. Arguably, if he were around today, he would still be uncertain as to which is likely to prevail when the economy finally collapses, as it must.  The interview below appeared in November 1999 under the flippant headline -- not my work, for sure -- “Economic Basics Predict Apocalypse”.  RA]

The dismal science will never be the same if Dr. Kurt Richebächer’s dire predictions for the global economy should come to pass. The former chief economist and managing partner at Germany’s Dresdner Bank says a deflationary collapse lies ahead that will ravage the world’s bourses and usher in a dark period of austerity and financial discipline.

Probably not one economist in 50 shares his views, at least not publicly. Richebächer, now living in France, says many of his American colleagues have been seduced into ignorance and complicity by Wall Street’s billions as well as by their love affair with mathematical models that shun fundamental laws of economics. Where they see a New Era of productivity growth and industrial efficiency, he sees duplicitous bookkeeping and manufacturing’s steep decline. They talk of a booming U.S. economy; he sees a profitless mirage. They worship capitalism’s bold risk-takers; he scorns them for recklessly piling leverage to the sky. Someone’s going to be wrong, but judge for yourself who. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Sweetening the tedium

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 8:09 am GMT

More tedium was the prediction for bullion here a couple of days ago, and it seems to be coming true. Thrill-seekers might want to take a look at today’s tout for July Sugar, which, as a chat room denizen noted, appears to be taking off for a seasonal flight-of-fancy.


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June E-mini S&P (ESM11) price chart with targetsIt’s understandable if you’ve lost interest in the downside targets I gave here earlier at, respectively, 1273.50 and 1276.50, since I’ve practically lost interest myself. Getting there has been pure tedium, a downtrend punctuated each day by either a Whoopee Cushion rally or numerous feints higher.  Alas, there’s also an excess of enticing Hidden Pivot targets to bottom-fish at the moment.  One that I especially like that is perhaps best suited for Tuesday night owls lies at 1274.75, and it can be bid with a 1.00-point stop-loss.  At the time this recommendation was published, the futures had exceeded by a single tick the 1281.25 midpoint associated with that number.  Accordingly, you should be alert for a possible bounce that could be traded bullishly via camouflage on the three-minute chart.  If there is no rally, or not much of one, that would affirm the outlook for more slippage to as low as 1269.75.

Incidentally, if you don’t subscribe to Rick’s Picks but would like to know more about the proprietary camouflage trading technique that we use to keep entry risk to a bare minimum, click here for information about the Hidden Pivot Webinar in late June.  You could also take a free week’s trial subscription that will give you access not only to detailed trading recommendations each day, but to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from all over the world. ______ UPDATE (10:02 a.m. EDT):  The 1276.50 pivot we’d grown so bored with caught the overnight low within a single tick, so officially we did nothing.  As a practical matter, a camouflage long entry from the 6:48 a.m. (EDT) bottom would have been difficult to justify, even on the 3-minute chart.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:33.70)

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 4:59 am GMT

Silver Wheaton (SLW) price chart with targetsThe stock is sitting at a precipice, since yesterday’s close was on a major trendline (see inset). The support is so obvious that we should be alert to a possible false breakdown that could afford us a bottom-fishing opportunity.  The nearest Hidden Pivot support lies at 31.91 (A=37.72 on May 10, daily chart), so that’s where it should be attempted.  Camouflaged entry is preferred, but if you don’t want to bother, or if you don’t know how, bid 31.93, stop 31.86, for 400 shares. Please note that if Wheaton should really fall apart it could fall all the way to 26.77, the ‘D’ target of a pattern shown in the chart.  We continue to hold 300 shares @ 42.01 against three June 40 puts with a 4.00 basis, but option expiration will soon put it out of its misery.

GCQ11 – August Gold (Last:1539.90)

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 5:15 am GMT

August Gold (GCQ11) price chart with targetsA dip below 1536.30 would cede control to bears for the near term, sending the futures down to a likely test of support at 1531.10, a Hidden Pivot whose provenance is shown in the chart.  The one-off ‘A’ is so seductive here that I have ignored the fact that the point ‘B’ of the pattern is pure ’sausage’ (having failed to breach the 1536.30 low).  Accordingly, I’ll recommend bottom-fishing  at 1531.10 with a 1531.30 bid, stop 1530.70. ______ UPDATE (9:54 a.m. EDT): The futures fell $12 overnight to a low that was 0.70 points shy of our target, so officially we did nothing.  The subsequent $13 upthrust has taken the trade out-of-range, so cancel it.

SIN11 – July Silver (Last:36.720)

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 7:06 am GMT

July Silver (SIN11) price chart with targetsThe high of yesterday’s gratuitous thrust didn’t even come close to the 37.890 peak whose breach would have signaled a bullish resurgence, but it remains valid nonetheless as a trigger point to watch if you’re keen on buying a breakout. Meanwhile, in trading early Wednesday morning (EDT), a Hidden Pivot support at 36.770 resisted sellers for all of a half-hour, hinting of further slippage over the near-term to at least 36.290, its ‘d’ sibling. You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but the appeal of this gambit will diminish as the night wears on and the c-d leg becomes increasingly labored. ______ UPDATE (10:18 a.m. EDT):  The futures took a 30-cent bounce overnight from 36.250, so if you used the four-tick stop-loss advised, you would have missed the tradable low by a tick, with a resulting, modest loss of $100.  The futures have subsequently surged anew, but the recovery high at 36.820 is nowheresville relative to the tedious range of the last five days.

SBN11 – July Sugar (Last:24.37)

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 7:48 am GMT

July Sugar (SBN11) price chart with targetsA chat room denizen suggested taking a look at sugar — “a nice set-up, and the seasonal low is in” — and so we shall.  Price action since early May’s low does indeed look bullish, since successive upthrusts on the daily chart seem to have had little trouble impulsingv above previous peaks. Dropping down to the hourly chart, the most recent such surge projects to 24.55, a Hidden Pivot that lies just six cents above yesterday’s high.  An easy push past the number would hint of yet more bullish action to come, and as you can see, the hourly chart is loaded with “external” peaks  that can be easily leveraged by the adroit Pivoteer.

JYM11 – June Yen (Last:1.2487)

by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2011 8:01 am GMT

June Yen (JYM11) price chart with targetsAll the king’s horses seem unable to suppress the yen, much to the detriment of Japan’s increasingly desperate exporters. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1.2657, representing a 1.3 percent rise from current levels. That number is shortable with a stop-loss as tight as five ticks, but if it gives way easily, that would portend an even weightier exchange-rate burden on the nation’s already severely depressed economy. _______ UDPATE:  For the September contract, 1.2633 is equivalent to the target given above. It too is shortable. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (June 27): Bor-ing. We’ll put this one aside for now, since it has become a tiresome distraction.

$USH15 – March T-Bonds (Last:143^19)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 5:29 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:24.72)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 4:03 am GMT

Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely.  I’m going to back up the truck myself — buying at either number or both, tightly stopped — and would do so not as a long-term play, but as a high-odds trade. Please note that although the 20.83 pivot has the potential to produce an important low, I’ve selected a chart that shows the alternative target at 17.30 so that you can judge for yourself how compelling it looks.  One further note:  Because yesterday’s plunge exceeded the previous bear-market low at 22.34 recorded on 11/5, it should have stopped out enough bulls to produce a spirited rally over the next day or two.  Under the circumstances, if such a rally fails to materialize, it would portend yet another wave of selling ahead. _____ UPDATE (December 17, 11:59 p.m.): Like gold futures, this vehicle rallied yesterday without quite reaching a downside target. That’s mildly bullish, but GDXJ will need to pop above 23.71 on Thursday to ‘actualize’ the encouraging start. ______ UPDATE (December 18, 8:39 p.m.): The nearest impediment to the rally lies at 25.18, a Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. Bulls can take encouragement if it’s exceeded — and perhaps get long if the ascent goes a bit further, exceeding the 25.62 peak and pulling back into a tradable ABC pattern.

$CLF15 – January Crude (Last:53.98)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2014 4:15 am GMT

Crude is getting kicked again Sunday night, although the January NYMEX contract is trading 85 cents off its low at the moment. The so-far low is 56.25, but I would expect the futures to get closer to my 55.43 target (see inset) before they attempt to rally in earnest. Night owls can try bottom-fishing using ‘camouflage’ nevertheless, but if you want to use a simpler, albeit riskier, strategy, you can bid 55.43, stop 55.34 for a single contract. I have difficulty imagining significantly more sinkage without a bounce from somewhere near here, but if the stop gets schmeissed, the next logical stop on the way down would be at 53.45, or 50.69 if any lower. However robust the bounce, assuming one comes, my bear-market target is still $31. The economic world would be a very different place at that point, and I don’t mean in a good way. _______ UPDATE (December 15, 10:39 p.m.): The 55.43 pivot is holding so far on a closing basis, having been exceeded intraday by 0.41 points. That’s more than I would have expected, but I still think we’ll see a strong rally from here, or from very near these levels, since the target is so clear and compelling. If not, and the futures continue their relentless plunge, the targets given above, 53.45 and thence 50,69, will obtain. Traders with no position, or those who are managing the risk of a short position, should note that the January contract was in an uptrend late Monday night that projected to exactly 56.13. You can find this target on the 15-minute chart using the following coordinates: a=55.17 (12/15 at 4:45 p.m. EST); b= 55.85 (6:45 p.m.); and c=55.45 (8:10 p.m.). This pattern looks reliable enough that we should infer more upside to come if 56.13 is exceeded by more 10-15 cents. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 9:33 a.m.): Crude fell this morning to a newe multiyear low at 53.60, just 15 cents from the target given above. If you caught the 1.16 bounce from the low, you should have taken a partial profit and secured what remains with an ‘impulsive stop-loss’.  The bounce is less than I might have expected, and if the low gets taken out we’ll likely be looking at more slippage to 50.69.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher.


This Just In... for Wednesday

Read here the confessions of a University of Illinois professor who at age 64 recently retired to fat city, courtesy of the state’s taxpayers. He’ll receive 80 percent of his salary for life, plus a three percent annual cost of living increase, but you  won’t believe some of the other perks that came with the job.


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