Friday, June 17, 2011

We usually use the Hidden Pivot targets of larger patterns to set up 'camouflage' trades on charts of lesser degree.  In this case, however, in July Corn there is a compelling trendline that might better serve our purposes.  It implies a test of support at exactly 687-5/8 if it happens today (i.e., Monday), and so I'll suggest looking for a tradable turn there, and catching a ride northbound on the first ABCD pattern that subsequently develops.  Because the trendline is so obvious, we should expect at least a small feint below the support before the futures turn around, so plan accordingly.  And if you do get aboard, be sure to take a partial profit on half the position if 'p' is reached, since a breach of the trendline could turn out to be the bearish real McCoy. ______ UPDATE (June 21, 3:45 a.m. EDT): The support has migrated up the trendline to 388 today, implying the opportunity touted above still holds, albeit at the new number.

Silver continues to mark time, although my short-term bias is mildly negative because of the narrow failure of Wednesday's rally to take out a peak made two days earlier at  35.995.  It would still take a thrust above the peak to the left of it, at 36.350, to re-energize buyers.  Keep 25.130 in mind as a worst case low for the summer if the July contract should close beneath 32.300 for two consecutive days. Those numbers are, respectively, the 'D' target and 'p' midpoint of the hourly chart pattern A=47.375  (may 2), B=33.035 (May 6), and both have been prominently featured here before.

It was strictly dullsville at around 2 a.m. EDT, but if my high-confidence, bearish target for bellwether Google is going to be achieved, then the broad averages are about to come in for some heavy selling. Check out GOOG's chart if you want to see what may lie in store for the world's premier web-based company.

Dueling impulse legs from Wednesday predicted yesterday's dirge, but you can look for a pop today to at least 1541.80 if buyers resolve to budge this thing. The somewhat unintuitive pattern is shown in the chart. Camouflageurs may need to burrow all the way down to the 1-minute chart to find an entry spot, since it has already been signaled on the larger pattern. _______ UPDATE (11:32 a.m. EDT):  The futures have rallied so far to 1543.00, coming within two ticks on an alternative target that uses the 1511.40 lowermost 'A' available on the hourly chart.  There should be a stall here, but if not, the futures will be announcing that they're ready to take on an hourly peak at 1555.00 recorded June 6 that has stymied bulls since.

Yesterday's constipated price action brought the futures slightly closer to a key low at 1237.50 recorded on March 17. A test of support there still seems likely, but please note that an upthrust today exceeding 1288.50 would probably leave bulls in charge when the new week begins Sunday evening. Night owls looking for a lift can try to camouflage their way aboard via a pullback from a tick or two above 1275.75.  This set-up is shown hypothetically in the inset. _______ UPDATE (11:16 a.m. EDT): An impulse leg whose strength is poorly concealed has left us with two tradable options: 1) use the  camouflage of the very lesser charts to enter on a smaller pattern; 2) wait for 'everyone' to get stopped out on a dip below 'c', then enter on the second signal. The entry trigger at 1272.00 has not yet been tripped, but it's very close.

[Longtime readers of Rick’s Picks will know they’re in for a bracing dose of reality when our good friend Doug B. – known hereabouts as The World’s Savviest Financial Advisor – mounts the soap box. In the essay below, Doug asserts not only that full-blown recession is back with a vengeance, but that this time the easy remedies will not even seem to work.  He notes that Baby Boomers in particular will have to tighten household budgets drastically,  and to plan on working well past past the age of 65, if they are to have any hope of retiring with dignity. RA] “Hey, Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat! Nothin’ up my sleeve!” “AARRRR!!! (pulls out the Rhino)  Looks like I don’t know my own strength.” “Maybe you need another hat.” And now here’s something you’ll really enjoy. After all, it is part of the American optimism to believe in the unknown positive. The concept of another rabbit in the hat as investment strategy was popularized by Stan Salvigsen and Mike Aronstein back in the mid-1980s. When faced with a bearish outlook, and in the absence of any clear positives to identify to offset all the negatives, we in the financial services industry prefer to believe that there has got to be another rabbit in the hat. The concept is predicated on the fact that no one knows what the magician will do next. The hand is quicker than the eye. Mother Nature watches from the wings, though. So the magician walks on stage and his prop is a pedestal table with a small vase on it. He removes his top hat and sets it on the table. With a wave of his wand, he reaches in, pulls out a scarf and drapes it over his