Thursday, August 4, 2011

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last:563.37)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A new rally target at 602.99 has emerged, somewhat lower than one previously identified here, and we can use it as a minimum upside projection for the near term.  The trek has hardly been easy, but the Gold Bugs index would be telegraphing a fresh burst of energy if it can close for two consecutive days above 572.62, the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the target.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1262.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

DaBoyz will try to milk every last drop of panic from this short squeeze, but I doubt it will go very far. Putting aside what I "think" or expect, we'll use the twin external peaks at 1285.00 to warn if the so-far hoax-of-a-rally is taking on a life of its own, in Frankenstein fashion. A print just a single tick above 1285.00 today would put bears on the ropes,  probably, until at least week's end.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1664.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The December futures made good progress yesterday toward a Hidden Pivot at 1728.00 that is our minimum upside objective for the near term. Trading possibilities for Wednesday night were limited, but I've sketched out the best opportunity we might see in the hours ahead for a camouflage "buy."  If the rally in progress around 9 p.m. EDT pops above peaks #2 and #3  and then pulls back without having exceeded #4, that could set up the B-C leg where a trade could be initiated. Its immediate potential would be to 1680.30 (30m, A=1654.40 on August 2 at 9:30 p.m. EDT).  Alternatively, there's a concurrent correction that projects to 1654.20, but I don't recommend bottom-fishing there due to its close proximity to the August 2 low.

Headlines Fail to Explain Market’s Gyrations

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Pity the Wall Street Journal for having to gin up an explanation each day for whatever it is that the stock market did the previous day. We reflected on the difficulty of this task, and its inherent futility (and silliness), while discarding a stack of old newspapers yesterday morning. Markets Show Relief, for Now was the above-the-fold headline that greeted subscribers on Monday’s Money and Investing page.  And just how had this show of relief manifested itself? In fact, the steep fall of the broad averages had moderated somewhat on Friday, allowing the Dow Industrials to close down less than a hundred points. Moreover, on Sunday night there was evidence of a strong rally globally ahead of the powerful surge that was to occur in U.S. markets the following morning. Sunday night’s news had concerned the debt-limit deal just approved by the House of Representatives. We had anticipated the stock market’s rally on the news, but also the rally’s immediate failure, in the following trading alert disseminated to subscribers Sunday night. It was headlined, “Watch for a Bull Trap”:  “If a political deal is barfed up before Monday’s night’s supposed deadline, stocks will have nowhere to go but up.  This will not be because traders think the deal is bullish for the market or the economy, but because they expect other traders to react as though it were.  Since nothing could be further from the truth, we should expect the rally to be over rather quickly.  My hunch is that it would be a good short sale with the Dow up between 100-120 points…” And so it went.  Any bull who bought Monday’s opening bar was quickly trapped by a hellacious selloff that was still in progress as we went to press Wednesday afternoon.  The Wall Street Journal was of