Monday, August 15, 2011

London riots are the Nanny State’s dead end

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

Here's the peerless Mark Steyn, writing about London's riots in his latest column: Several readers wrote to taunt me for not having anything to say on the London riots. As it happens, Chapter Five of my book is called "The New Britannia: The Depraved City." You have to get up pretty early in the morning to beat me to Western Civilization's descent into barbarism. Anyone who's read it will fully understand what's happening on the streets of London. The [debt] downgrade and the riots are part of the same story: Big Government debauches not only a nation's finances but its human capital, too.  This is the logical dead end of the Nanny State. When William Beveridge laid out his blueprint for the British welfare regime in 1942, his goal was the "abolition of want" to be accomplished by "co-operation between the State and the individual." In attempting to insulate the citizenry from life's vicissitudes, Sir William succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. As I write in my book: "Want has been all but abolished. Today, fewer and fewer Britons want to work, want to marry, want to raise children, want to lead a life of any purpose or dignity." The United Kingdom has the highest drug use in Europe, the highest incidence of sexually transmitted disease, the highest number of single mothers, the highest abortion rate. Marriage is all but defunct, except for William and Kate, fellow toffs, upscale gays and Muslims. From page 204: "For Americans, the quickest way to understand modern Britain is to look at what LBJ's Great Society did to the black family and imagine it applied to the general population." The complete essay can be found by clicking here.

Abberational Calm

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

A mixed picture Sunday evening appeared to taunt bulls and bears alike, since moderation of the kind in evidence at the moment is almost aberrational these days. My forecasts nevertheless go as far out on the limb as the dark arts will allow, looking for higher stock prices and at least somewhat lower bullion prices in the days immediately ahead.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:37.44)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Having legged into the September 42/46/50 call butterfly spread four times for 1.04 over the last few weeks, we have a chance to make as much as $1184 if the stock is trading around 46 when the options expire on September 16.  The position would be profitable in theory with the stock trading anywhere between 43.04 and 48.96, but we lose outside of that range, although no more than $416 total no matter what.  Do nothing further for now.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:38.945)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Ever since the watershed high near $50 was recorded in early May, bulls and bears have been duking it out within a $10 range whose peak (basis the September futures) was 42.295. The bearish case carries more weight, however, for one reason:  buyers have so far failed to surpass the look-to-the-left peak at 42.330 notched on May 4.  Just a nickel more of upside on August 4 would have done the trick, but buyers instead showed timidity that has weighed on Silver since.  If and when they get past that peak -- and it looks like a coin toss at the moment, technically speaking -- it will be sunshine and lollipops once more for bulls, but until then they will face possible jeopardy down to 37.225, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, or even to its 'd' sibling at 34.590 if it's breached for two consecutive days on a closing basis.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1734.90)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A weak opening Sunday evening has knocked $10 off the price of December Gold, generating a so-far low at 1730.80. To turn things around on the hourly chart, bulls would need to achieve a print at 1761.10, a single tick above a small peak recorded Friday on the way down. Failing that, however, the futures will face downside risk over the next day or two to 1706.80, or even to 1687.90 if it gives way. The provenance of both targets is shown in the chart, and it is the implied symmetry of a pattern yet to play out that gives them credibility.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1177.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The rally target at 1227.75 that was in play in Friday is still in play. As I'd noted earlier, choppy action has brought the futures to within two ticks of the 1187.25 midpoint associated with that target. The fact that that midpoint was precisely achieved by the day's two failed rallies suggests that the 1227.75 target will be useful to us.  However, because the target is by now perhaps too well "advertised," I'd suggest using camouflage on the 15m chart or less if you plan on using this high-odds Hidden Pivot to get short.  In the meantime, because there is 50 points of implied upside if and when the futures break decisively above the midpoint, using camo tactics to get long is strongly advised. Initiating bull trades near these levels may be easiest for Sunday night-owls, since the September contract created the kind of tedious chop on Friday that tends to leave our trading competitors waiting for "something" to happen. Our specialty, of course, is using impulse legs to alert us to the very first sign that something is about to happen.  Want to learn to use the Camouflage Trading  Method yourself? Click here for information about the October 5-6 Hidden Pivot Webinar.

Social Networking, Weaponized

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

As The Great Recession tightens its grip on the urban slums of the U.S. and Europe, a darker side of social networking has begun to emerge.  Last week, the civilized world was appalled to read about rioting British “youths” tweeting their friends and comrades-in-arms to join the fun. “We need more MAN than Feds so Everyone run wild, all of London and others are invited! Pure terror and havoc & Free stuff…just smash shop windows and cart out da stuff.”  Ahh, “da stuff!”  Such swag as has seldom been seen in London’s dismal rookeries: bowler hats from Locke. Brigg umbrellas. Church shoes.  London’s bobbies should have no trouble picking out the perpetrators on Monday.  They’ll be wearing bespoke suits that fit as poorly as O.J.’s infamous glove. Yobs will be firing up Cohibas with (unmonogrammed) Dunhill lighters, broad-tossers’ wrists will be adorned with Patek Phillipes, and louts will be ordering up Dom Perignon by the flagon in Piccadilly taverns. All of this may sound vaguely familiar to Americans who endured the urban riots of the 1960s, decades before social networking was even imaginable.  Back then, FM radio was the medium best suited to celebrating the spoils of rioting.  And celebrate it they did: “Good morning!! boomed WUST disk jockey "Moon Man" the day after Washington D.C. erupted in flames in response to Martin Luther King’s assassination in April 1968. “How are all of you Boss Jocks out there with new color TVs and radios?!!  he asked, addressing and audience that must have included at least some listeners who had thrown bricks through store windows and crated off stolen appliances the previous day.  Riots were ostensibly “political” back then, and a news media that was only beginning to incubate White Guilt made all of those who watched the violence from their