Friday, August 19, 2011

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:357.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I mentioned in today's tout for Silver Wheaton that its chart looks no worse than that of this supposed world-beater. Meanwhile, Apple is approaching a 357.97 midpoint support where we can try bottom-fishing. Specifically, I'll recommend buying two September 400 calls if and when the stock reaches the midpoint.  Stop yourself out if the calls trade for 0.50 less than you've paid for them. ________ UPDATE: We bought the calls @ 2.20, but if you paid more please let me know, since I prefer to track all options trades that I recommend on a worst-case basis.  In any event, stop yourself out if they trade for 0.50 less -- officially, 1.70.  I am not thrilled with the fact that the stock overshot the target by $2, since that implies that lower prices are coming. For now, though, offer one of the calls to close for 4.10.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:36.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Most of us expected mining stocks to get hit when the broad averages finally collapsed. Take a look at the hourly chart of this stock before you despair, however, since the carnage has been far worse for companies not in the gold or silver business. I've reproduced a chart of Apple on this page today as well, and as you can see for yourself, Silver Wheaton's chart looks no worse. We continue to hold the September 42/46/50 call butterfly for $1.04.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1852.70)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The very bullish target at 1893.10 that I proffered here earlier is coming up more quickly than I might have anticipated.  Although it may be exceeded, I doubt it would be by much, since there is a second, equally compelling Hidden Pivot target at 1901.20. I would be very surprised if the rally does not make it to one number or the other, or perhaps into the range between them, but I will also be surprised if bulls simply blow past both.  Were that to occur, I would rate $2000 within a week an even-odds bet.

Flight to Treasurys Has Little to Do with ‘Quality’

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

The news media will eventually figure out the truth -- that stocks got pulped yesterday simply because they are in a bear market. The Mother of All Bears, quite possibly.  The Dow finished the day down 419 points after trading more than a hundred points lower than that intraday.  The selloff was attributed to the usual suspects: “fears” over Europe’s shaky financial condition, and America’s apparent relapse into recession. Although both concerns have been with us in spades for more than a little while, they seem, suddenly, to have become overwhelming and unmanageable now that the world’s stock markets are imploding.  Of course, there will be equally spectacular rallies in the days, weeks and months ahead, and, as was the case during the 1930s, they will be interpreted as signaling a glimmer of hope for the economy. The press will do the interpreting, but most Americans will know better. The Great Recession has returned with a vengeance, and predictions of 2% GDP growth are about to be trimmed to sub-zero by the same morons who were so optimistic just a few weeks ago. With Dow stocks down 500 points in the opening hour yesterday, Reuters and some other news sources initially theorized that “investors” – a euphemism these days for algorithm-driven machines -- were despondent over a Philly Fed report that factory activity in the Middle Atlantic region had “unexpectedly” fallen to its lowest level since March 2009. Reuters tactfully refrained from identifying by name the experts who had been looking for better numbers, but they would have to have emerged from a sarcophagus to have been surprised by the bad news. Meanwhile, although the eggheads who compile economic statistics may be deaf, dumb and blind to the real world, Joe Sixpack, unemployed for the last 36 months and no