Monday, August 22, 2011

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:42.930)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A 44.510 rally target first broached here when the futures were trading more than 10 percent lower looks like it's a lead-pipe cinch, given the ease with which the futures have been chomping through lesser Hidden Pivot resistances in the rally cycle begun August 9 from 37.025.  I've reproduced an hourly chart alongside that shows how compelling the target is.  You should allow for additional upside to 45.850 if 44.510 is decisively breached. That target can be found simply by sliding down to the lower 'A' at 33.470 shown in the chart.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1142.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures played toe-sies on Friday with a Hidden Pivot midpoint support I'd flagged at 1113.00.  The intraday low at 1117.00 fell a tad shy of our benchmark, but if it should fail on a closing basis, look for more carnage down to as low as 1019.50, its 'D' sibling.  More immediately, there were no compelling opportunities when the action stopped on Friday, but a rally today hitting 1136.50 should be viewed as a possible camouflage opportunity to get short.  That is the midpoint resistance, on the hourly chart, of A=1118.50 (7:30 a.m. EDT); B=1153.25, and C=1119.00. ________ UPDATE (8:50 a.m. EDT):  With Sunday night's wild bounce, a new pattern projects to at least 1163.25, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of A=1103.00 (6/11); B=1206.75 (8/17).  We'll call this the Qaddafi rally, since his presumably imminent departure could not possibly have positive implications for U.S. stocks.  That won't stop the U.S. new media form saying this is so, however.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:10818)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The summer's powerful selloff is still merely corrective on the monthly chart (see inset).  I mention this not because I think the market is likely to come roaring back to new highs, but to remind you that we must always interpret the signs disinterestedly.  If we do so here, it forces us to acknowledge that the second phase of the Mother of All Markets, begun a little more than a year ago, exceeded the required "internal" and "external" peaks to create a bullish A-B leg of monthly-chart degree. Although it has recently given way to a less powerful bearish one suggestive of a "duel," this dynamic, strictly speaking, implies that the bulls still hold a slight edge.

Just a correction?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Applying Hidden Pivot analysis dispassionately to the Dow Industrials' monthly chart reveals that this summer's carnage could conceivably be just a correction rather than the resumption of the Mother of All Bear Markets.  As the chart shows all too clearly, the current selloff has merely created "dueling" impulse legs on the long-term chart, with bulls still holding a slight edge when the power of the offsetting bull and bear impulse legs is compared.