Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Outrunning ‘Mother’ Nature

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Stocks moved blithely higher yesterday, ignoring the fact that a terminally ill Greece has now been joined by Italy in the headlines. Perhaps the wacko traders who move the world's markets were relieved that no one thought to mention Spain?  In any case, although my technical forecast for index futures calls for higher prices over the near term, I'd advise tight stops under any longs.  With earthquakes happening in Oklahoma, it might also be a good idea to keep a full tank of gas in your car in case you need to outrun effusions from the Yellowstone caldera.

CLZ11 – December Crude (Last:95.53)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

December Crude's 99.60 rally target (see inset) looks like a lock-up to me --  a pity, perhaps, since prices at the pump have been uncharacteristically soft recently but are bound to surge with a vengeance when the headlines shriek yet once more about $100-a-barrel oil.  Hawk-eyed Pivoteers might notice in the chart that although the rally has proceeded with little trepidation, there were numerous instances where impulsive thrusts followed the creation of second point 'C' lows.  To leverage this propensity, I'd suggest attempting entry on each second 'x' entry signal generated on the hourly chart. This is a tactic I've never recommended before, at least not in the context of a trading tout, but it would appear to suit the behavior of this predictable but always-nasty vehicle.

ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1255.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A 1305.25 rally target remains our lodestar, but a more immediate concern is the 1278.25 target of the lesser pattern shown.  If it is approached, or better yet exceeded by just one tick, that could set up an excellent long-entry opportunity for a ride into the wild blue yonder.  Notice the tiny, look-to-the-left peaks just above and below the target, including one at 1278.25.  The pullback following any impulse leg exceeding those peaks could possess the subtlety we need to catch a nearly riskless ride to the higher target at 1305.25.

SIZ11 – December Silver (Last:34.835)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Tonight's stall at 35.010 implies the futures will be on their way to exactly 36.205 once the lower number, a midpoint resistance, has been decisively exceeded.  The pattern, both clear and compelling, is shown in the accompanying chart. I have also labeled a look-to-the-left peak at 35.090 that is not a true peak on the hourly chart but which becomes one on intraday charts of lesser degree. It can be used for initiating a camouflage long entry, since any pullback from just above it could create the abc pattern we need to generate a subtle entry signal with relatively little risk.  Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on November 16-17 and a $50 discount.

Are Americans Ready For Europe’s Collapse?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[In the guest editorial below, our good friend Tom McCafferty, a veteran commodity trader and author of numerous books about trading and the markets, recalls the challenges of boot camp in sizing up America’s economic predicament.  The nation will need every ounce of strength, courage and Yankee know-how it can muster to avoid slipping into a deep economic coma, says Tom. Are we up to it?  With Europe on the brink of collapse, we may find out sooner rather than later. RA] “Get off your dead ass and onto you dying feet!” Those of you who spent your wayward youth as part of the Corps can remember your First Sergeant bellowing these words, as you ended a rest break half way through a 50-mile hike at Camp Lejeune on a hot August day.  Guess what?  Europe is about to become you new First Sergeant. Europe is headed for a major depression … like the good old days of 1929!  The Great Depression lasted over a decade in the U. S., even with all the market and job creating stimulus FDR could beg, borrow and steal from Congress.  It took World War II to get us working again.  Then, if we, our allies and even our enemies, hadn’t bombed just about every factory and storage facility in the world, leaving the U.S. with the only working factories and cargo fleet intact in the world, we still might not have gotten out of it.  The Great Depression could easily have gone on for decades and decades. If Greece thinks they deserve a 100% haircut on their precious bonds and opts out of the EU, you can bet half the banks in Europe and a few in the U. S. will tank.  This will be quickly followed by Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland