September 30th, 2014
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If DaBoyz can squeeze a 500-point Dow rally out of yesterday’s administered easing of dollar “swap” rates, just imagine what they can do with a little Santa seasonality and a dollop of year-end window-dressing.  Let’s be straight about a couple of things. First, no one expects the latest easing of global credit lines to resolve Europe’s debt crisis. And second, the 800 points the Dow has tacked on this week represent little more than trading machines masturbating each other amidst a short-covering panic. Some observers merely yawned, noting that the swap arrangements that make it easy and cheap – and now even easier and cheaper, if such a thing were imaginable — for foreign banks to borrow dollars have been in place since 2007.  However, others saw the announcement by the central banks as nothing less than a bold step by the Federal Reserve to begin monetizing the debt of Spain, Italy, Greece, France et al.

It’s a moot point whether the U.S. has begun bailing out Euro-deadbeats, however, since the U.S. is a deadbeat itself, albeit one in sole possession of the world’s reserve currency and therefore of the ability to gin up unlimited quantities of the stuff at will. Meanwhile, there’s little point in pretending that the U.S. is somehow not immersed in the bubbling cauldron of toxic global finance. U.S. banks had stopped lending to their European counterparts, and that’s why the Fed stepped in to pretend it has the situation under control. This may work for another week or so, if that long, but it’ll be interesting to see whether reducing swap rates to near-zero will help suppress sovereign borrowing rates that recently topped the 7% “red zone” for Italy. Would you lend the Italian government hundreds of billions of dollars at 7%? That’s what we thought. But if you live in Europe or the U.S., you’ll be doing it anyway – and for a lot less than 7% –courtesy of the bankers.

A Hyperinflationary Step?

Not to spoil the party, but we’d suggest keeping a close eye on T-Bond futures rather than on a criminally insane Dow Industrial Average that has obviously run amok.  U.S. Bonds and Notes have been in a sharp correction, with the former closing on a key Hidden Pivot target of ours at 140^14.  The target is so clear and compelling that its breach would offer strong evidence that the Fed’s increasingly desperate attempts to hold deflation at bay are about to finish the dollar’s destruction since the Fed was created nearly 100 years ago.  We’re planning on bottom-fishing near the target (click here to join us – at no cost to you), but if it the “hidden support” is exceeded even slightly, it could be signaling a significant global increase in inflationary pressures.

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TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday

Bankers’ Best-Laid Plans

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 5:29 am GMT

The markets were suspiciously subdued Wednesday night, but don’t be surprised if buyers are back on Thursday to pursue their bliss.  It ishardly implausible that those who planned yesterday’s liquidity announcement did so on a Wednesday because they believed it might be too ambitious to get a short-squeeze going as early in the week as Tuesday.


Rick's Picks for Thursday
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ECZ11 – December Euro (Last:1.3460)

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 3:14 am GMT

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ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1244.25)

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 3:25 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1749.60)

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 3:38 am GMT

February Gold (GCG12) price chart with targetsWe’re long  two contracts, from an initial position of four, with an effective cost basis of 1733.00. Look to exit one of those contracts at 1758.00, a few ticks below the ‘D’ target of the ‘camo’ pattern we used to get on board. (Note: Initial entry was via the December contract, but we rolled the position intraday into February.) Since we’re swinging for the fence on this trade, I’ll suggest a 1733.30 stop-loss for now, one-cancels-the-other with the closing offer of one contract at 1758.00.  Upside potential is to 1869.80, the ‘D’ target of the big pattern shown. Its sibling p midpoint lies at 1770.20, so we’ll make that our minimum upside objective for the near term. A two-day close above it would make 1869.80 an odds-on shot. _______ UPDATE (6:28a.m. EST):  We exited on the overnight high, 1758.00, before the futures dropped back by $10.  This leaves us with a single contract whose cost basis is 1708.00. A 1704.20 stop-loss is suggested for now.

SIH11 – March Silver (Last:32.735)

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 3:46 am GMT

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Small Details of a Monster Rally

by Rick Ackerman on December 1, 2011 2:40 pm GMT

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:170.34)

by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2014 5:35 am GMT

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e-mini-s&p-500-futures-contract-technical-analysisE-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Technical Analysis: Bears blew a chance to sack stocks yesterday when the Bad Guys reversed a 137 point plunge in the early going to close the Dow off a measly 42 points. Recently, it’s seemed all too easy for DaBoyz to manipulate the broad averages so that they almost never experience three down days in a row.  One way they do this is to pull their bids overnight and let stocks fall on gaseous volume. The effect is to dry up sellers so that stocks can be short-squeezed to new highs without much effort or bullish buying. However, we should infer that this little trick is getting old when it takes a 137-point drop to set the trap. Moreover, although shorts remain as easy to spook as a sorority girl at a sceance, they weren’t so panicky yesterday that stocks were able to close up on the day.

One trader who re-shorted the E-Mini S&P yesterday after getting bucked off the horse by Friday’s strong rally suggested that the only thing keeping stocks aloft right now is end-of-month portfolio-squaring. This explanation feels right to me, but we won’t know for sure until October is under way.  In the meantime, I’d recommend cautious shorting that follows our Hidden Pivot rules. Generally speaking, this means initiating shorts in this vehicle at minor rally targets whenever entry risk can be held to a theoretical five ticks or less.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:40.09)

by Rick Ackerman on September 29, 2014 8:30 am GMT

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$CLX14 – November Crude (Last:93.39)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2014 12:37 am GMT

Energy prices got a lift Wednesday from news that U.S. air strikes had targeted a Syrian oil installation held by ISIS. The refineries that were hit reportedly have been generating revenues of $2 million a day for the terrorist group, so the news was good (even if there was no mention of jihadis left dead by the attack). Whether or not the moderate spike in oil prices will disrupt the mini-bear market in crude remains to be seen. However, using Hidden Pivot analysis, it’s possible to project a further move to the shortable 94.77 target shown. If that happens, prices will have advanced nearly 6% from their September lows. It would take just a bit more than that, however — specifically, a print at 94.93 today or tomorrow — to turn the daily chart outright bullish.

We should not expect a bearish reversal to much alleviate rising prices at the pump, however, since crude’s nearly 15% slide from late June’s highs had little effect on prices, which in many parts of the country still hover near $3.80 for a gallon of regular. Reports by the slackers, fabulists and indolent hacks who bring us the news – including, unfortunately, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal — suggested otherwise, almost to the point of saying that gasoline prices had collapsed in recent weeks. Of course, those of us who actually buy gasoline saw prices come down by only a dime or so. _______ UPDATE (September 30, 10:29 a.m. EDT): My target caught today’s 94.90 top within 13 cents, and thus the start of a so-far $1.71 plunge.  If you got short as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish tracking guidance.

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.02)

by Rick Ackerman on September 23, 2014 2:06 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:20.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:23 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:17.535)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:12 am GMT

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$+RGLD – Royal Gold (Last:65.34)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 12:01 am GMT

The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target.  It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:23 p.m.): Sellers crushed the support after it held for just a day, implying more weakness is coming. If so, we should expect a test of support near the 58.86 low recorded  in late May. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 7:27 p.m.): A weak rally has lifted RGLD off recent lows, but the move would need to hit 66.49 to turn the very lesser charts impulsively bullish. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance of importance lies at 66.22, so take encouragement if there’s an easy move through it.

$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3400)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668.  If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23):  Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT):  The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago.


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