January 26th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

[Ever consider stuffing money in your mattress to guard against a banking collapse? Here’s a guest editorial from our friend Erich Simon that suggests you might be better off taking your nest egg and buying…a bunch of mattresses. We’re not sure whether Erich’s point is being made tongue-in-cheek, but we are convinced, after an exchange of several e-mails, that he is a true connoisseur of bedding and accessoriesRA]

I just shelled out $2,400 for a traditional, coil-spring twin XL mattress set. Apparently I am not alone with mattress horror stories. Is the new mattress worth $2,400? I don’t know, but it’s got a 10-year warranty. Only problem with that is a $2,400 replacement mattress in ten years will be a smidgen of what I just received.  Adjusted for Net Present Value and the ongoing bleed of “quality metric,” probably a lot less, so for all intents and purposes my purchase will have depreciated down to sub-zero. Of course, if I were buying the hedonic of a new computer ten years out I would no doubt improve on existing “capacity.”

A mattress is a better barometer than a computer or a traditional store of value, including gold. Mattresses consume scarce resources like cotton and petroleum. Mattresses are something everybody needs, and they wear out and have to be replaced. Mattresses are not purely “frivolous tangibles” and speak to the Means of Production (MOP) in our factoried society. They are price-pointed to exhaustion on the demand side. Labor costs, like everything else, while in the short term can fall from layoffs, will only continue to rise as increases in the minimum wage are passed through the pipeline. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Goldman’s Death Dive?

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 7:32 am GMT · 1 comment

Although we shouldn’t get our hopes too high, technical evidence presented in today’s tout for Goldman Sachs suggests that the stock could be on its way to oblivion. A further fall of $31 from current levels seems plausible in any case, so let’s stay on top of the stock for now, the better to leverage the move.


Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1247.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 7:59 am GMT

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USZ11 – December T-Bond (Last:140^29.)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:11 am GMT

December T-Bond (USZ11) price chart with targetsThe 140^14 correction target drum-rolled here yesterday has been exceeded by eight ticks, or a quarter of a point. Ordinarily, because the pattern associated with that target is so clear, we might infer from even so small an overshoot s that significantly lower prices impend. In this case, however, we’ll reserve judgment for now, since there was an important low at 140^02 (November 13)  helping to pull the futures down.  Which is to say, the “magnetic” attraction of that low overpowered the Hidden Pivot support.  Now, the  December contract would need to hit 142^04 today to get out of immediate jeopardy, since that’s what it would take to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1749.40)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:31 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:33.245)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:37 am GMT

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$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:38.83)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 6:10 am GMT

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$CLH15 – March Crude (Last:45.01)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

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$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2031.50)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:03 am GMT

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$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1294.80)

by Rick Ackerman on January 23, 2015 12:13 am GMT

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DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:176.45)

by Rick Ackerman on January 21, 2015 5:29 am GMT

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$TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:201.29)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 6:35 am GMT

Tesla got whacked yesterday, supposedly on word from Elon Musk that the company will not be turning a profit much before 2020. Although this “news” is about as dog-bites-man as it gets, DaBoyz wasted no time repricing the stock with a gap-down opening that brought it down below the 196.19 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown. This implies not only that more downside awaits to as low as 163.88, but that any rally back up to 196.19 would be an enticing short sale. _______ UPDATE (January 15, 11:39 p.m.):  Yesterday’s fake-out rally got within 44 cents of my 196.19 benchmark before collapsing anew by nearly $6.  If you got short, set a break-even stop for now and please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance. In any event, you should have covered a third to half of any short position above or near the lows. _______ UPDATE (January 25, 10:57 p.m.): You should be out of the stock, since it has rallied as high as 203.50. That was noticeably shy of a 204.38 target, and although the failure to reach the target straightaway hints of underlying weakness, or at least a lack of bullish conviction, we’ll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for now as they try to prove their case.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:112.99)

by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2015 3:41 am GMT

We shouldn’t doubt that Apple will eventually lift off for points north — most immediately the 116.92 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown, and thence its ‘D’ sibling at 129.20. In the meantime, the presumptive consolidation near 110 has brough only tedium and a more or less predictable series of false starts. The timing of the rally is of some importance, since the stock market as a whole cannot get in bullish gear without the world’s most valuable stock leading the charge.  For our part, let’s get our feet wet with a 0.31 bid for 16 Feb 20 130 calls, day order, contingent on the stock trading 109.00 or higher. If Apple falls below that price lower the bid to 0.26.  Our eventual goal will be to leg into some vertical spreads for cheap, or possibly free. ______ UPDATE: The calls traded for 0.31 on the opening, so I’ll track 16 of them at that price.  Use a stop-loss at 0.24 for now, o-c-o with an order to short 16 Feb 20 135 calls for 0.31. ________UPDATE (January 18, 7:03 p.m.): The stock has looked like hell lately, stopping us out of the calls for 0.24 on the opening Friday. The loss would have totaled $112 plus commissions.  We’ll back away for now, since AAPL now looks primed to fall to 103.58 before bulls get traction. ______ UPDATE (January 25, 11:04 p.m.):  The stock has reversed sharply to the upside, putting the 129.20 rally target flagged above solidly in play.

$SIH15 – March Silver (Last:17.800)

by Rick Ackerman on January 13, 2015 2:09 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:133.40)

by Rick Ackerman on January 12, 2015 1:30 am GMT

A sale at 2.10 was a lay-up on Friday, since the spread peaked near the opening above 2.30.  With about $2640 in profits already booked, I’ll suggest holding the remaining spreads till expiration. If TLT is trading above 129 at the time, the total profit on the position would be $3840.  From a technical standpoint, the stock’s almost relentless strength is surprising, even to me. In retrospect, it vindicates our strategy — still viable — of buying every minor pullback, since that seems to be as much weakness as we’ll get.  I still expect the 133.16 target shown to exhibit some stopping power, but we shouldn’t be too surprised if buyers just shrug it off. ________ UPDATE (January 16, 12:04 a.m.): Even though I keep repeating that we should expect this vehicle to continue rampaging higher for years and years, I still can’t get used to how easily it blows past ostensibly daunting Hidden Pivot resistances. For what it’s worth, the next lies at 138.60.  Our position is beyond adjustment at this point and seems all but certain to produce a $3840 gain. _______ UPDATE (January 21, 8:24 p.m.):  Yesterday’s selloff was the most vicious we’ve seen in months, but it had no impact whatsoever on the 138.60 target noted above.  The rather large profit from our spread is safe in any case and will remain so unless Armageddon intervenes.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


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