November 28th, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

[Ever consider stuffing money in your mattress to guard against a banking collapse? Here’s a guest editorial from our friend Erich Simon that suggests you might be better off taking your nest egg and buying…a bunch of mattresses. We’re not sure whether Erich’s point is being made tongue-in-cheek, but we are convinced, after an exchange of several e-mails, that he is a true connoisseur of bedding and accessoriesRA]

I just shelled out $2,400 for a traditional, coil-spring twin XL mattress set. Apparently I am not alone with mattress horror stories. Is the new mattress worth $2,400? I don’t know, but it’s got a 10-year warranty. Only problem with that is a $2,400 replacement mattress in ten years will be a smidgen of what I just received.  Adjusted for Net Present Value and the ongoing bleed of “quality metric,” probably a lot less, so for all intents and purposes my purchase will have depreciated down to sub-zero. Of course, if I were buying the hedonic of a new computer ten years out I would no doubt improve on existing “capacity.”

A mattress is a better barometer than a computer or a traditional store of value, including gold. Mattresses consume scarce resources like cotton and petroleum. Mattresses are something everybody needs, and they wear out and have to be replaced. Mattresses are not purely “frivolous tangibles” and speak to the Means of Production (MOP) in our factoried society. They are price-pointed to exhaustion on the demand side. Labor costs, like everything else, while in the short term can fall from layoffs, will only continue to rise as increases in the minimum wage are passed through the pipeline. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

Goldman’s Death Dive?

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 7:32 am GMT · 1 comment

Although we shouldn’t get our hopes too high, technical evidence presented in today’s tout for Goldman Sachs suggests that the stock could be on its way to oblivion. A further fall of $31 from current levels seems plausible in any case, so let’s stay on top of the stock for now, the better to leverage the move.


Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1247.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 7:59 am GMT

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USZ11 – December T-Bond (Last:140^29.)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:11 am GMT

December T-Bond (USZ11) price chart with targetsThe 140^14 correction target drum-rolled here yesterday has been exceeded by eight ticks, or a quarter of a point. Ordinarily, because the pattern associated with that target is so clear, we might infer from even so small an overshoot s that significantly lower prices impend. In this case, however, we’ll reserve judgment for now, since there was an important low at 140^02 (November 13)  helping to pull the futures down.  Which is to say, the “magnetic” attraction of that low overpowered the Hidden Pivot support.  Now, the  December contract would need to hit 142^04 today to get out of immediate jeopardy, since that’s what it would take to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1749.40)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:31 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:33.245)

by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2011 10:37 am GMT

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:87.85)

by Rick Ackerman on November 26, 2014 3:40 am GMT

I remain very bullish on the dollar and expect it to achieve the 90.00 target shown by early 2015. However, it is clearly winded after the steep run-up since July, resulting in more frequent consolidations to develop thrust for each successive new high. Another factor contributing to the rally’s timidity of late is the implied resistance of two key peaks made, respectively, at 88.71 (June 2010) and 89.62 (March 2009).  A true bull-market breakout will require a push past these peaks, and although that outcome seems likely, it could take a while. However, if DXY were to effortlessly power past the peaks within the next 4-6 weeks, it would imply there’s still enormous power in reserve to drive the bull market significantly higher.

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:118.63)

by Rick Ackerman on November 25, 2014 4:10 am GMT

AAPL has been on a rampage since April, gaining hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation with a run-up of more than 60%.  How long can a stock that is already the most valuable in the world continue to rise vertically?  Probably not forever, it can be safely inferred. It’s not as though Apple has no competitors. Indeed, the day is probably not far off when Chinese manufacturers are churning out smart phones that will do just about everything an iPhone can do, but for one tenth the price. Samsung is having troubles of its own coping with brutal competition in mobile devices — but then again, the company does not enjoy Apple’s cult status, nor the kind of caché among customers that has inspired some of them to have the Apple logo tattooed on their butts.

From a technical standpoint the stock is closing on a very compelling target at 125.87 that comes from the weekly chart (see inset). I expect this Hidden Pivot to show stopping power that will be compounded by the 126.87 target of a lesser rally pattern that is clearly discernible on the hourly chart. The implied $7+ rally is reason enough to try to get long here if you are not already on board. However, it is also reason to take profits, do covered writes against stock held in a portfolio; or more aggressively, to reverse long positions and get short. In any case, I’ll use the 126.37 midpoint of the targeted range as my minimum upside objective for the near term, to serve you in any way that suits your goals.

$JYZ14 – December Yen (Last:0.8481)

by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2014 8:00 am GMT

The chart shown has implications that may or may not prevent Japan from getting sucked into a deflationary black hole. However, the chart is quite clear on the question of whether BOJ will be successful in its longstanding goal of trashing the yen. (Answer: Yes, very.) The small rally in early October from around 0.9001 validates the pattern itself, and the decisive progress beneath that level since implies that the D target at 0.7332 is likely to be reached. This will obviously benefit Japanese exporters, but it will also put more pressure on manufacturers in the U.S. and elsewhere that compete with them. Traders should position from the short side until the target is reached, but be alert for a rally back up to the red line, since that would set up a ‘mechanical’ short to the target using a 0.9418 stop-loss. That’s far more than we would ordinarily risk, but you could cut it down to size by using the ‘camouflage’ technique. When appropriate, ask in the chat room if you’re uncertain about how to do this.

$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2070.00)

by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2014 7:09 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:28.81)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications. ______ UPDATE (November 24, 1:54 a.m. EST): GDXJ finally budged by moving above 29.28, albeit a day later than we might have preferred.  Now, if the rally holds above Friday’s 28.42 low, a modest target at 30.43 will be in play — would become an odds-on bet if and when this vehicle pushes decisively above the 29.43 midpoint resistance.

USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

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$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:177.80)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

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$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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