No sooner had Merkel and Sarkozy put the finishing touches on the latest bailout rumors than Standard & Poor’s was threatening to downgrade the debt of 15 of the 17 euroland nations. Recall that as the week began, France and Germany were talking up the latest supposed solution to the debt crisis. Bigger and better than their last supposed solution, it drew a rave from that man of discernment and cunning, Tim Geithner, who pulled out all the stops in making much ado about nothing. “The eyes of the world are very much on Europe now,” he told reporters in Berlin. “[We should be] very encouraged by developments in Europe in the past two weeks, including reform commitments in Italy, Spain and Greece.” » Read the full article
Early Wednesday morning, March Silver was stealing up on a bullish threshold whose breach could portend more upside over the near term to as high as 34.270. Check out the chart that accompanies today’s tout, since it offers a compelling picture as well as some useful price points for camouflage.
All of the gurgly action of the last few days has taken place just beneath the external peak at 1270.75 recorded on November 14. That makes the monster rally from 1147 suspect, since, having exceeded no prior peaks, it is not even impulsive on the daily chart. A minor upthrust from these levels would remedy that, but until such time as one occurs, and even in the wake of the recent 120-point explosion, the burden of proof properly rests with the bulls.
We’ll monitor this vehicle more closely for low-risk shorting opportunities in the days ahead. Let’s warm up with an order to buy four Oct 10 169 puts if and when DIA gets within 0.04 of the 171.10 target shown. I estimate that the puts will be trading for around 0.75 then, but you can refine the bid as warranted by training on the bid/asked when DIA gets to 170.90. We’ll risk a theroretical $80 on this one, stopping ourselves out of the puts if they trade 0.20 below where bought. ______ UPDATE (2:50 p.m.): A dead-center bullseye here, since my tout — sent out last night — caught the high of today’s fake-out rally exactly to-the-tick. If you got short as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish tracking guidance. _______ UPDATE (3:44 p.m.): A fill at 0.75 was reported (somewhat belatedly) in the chat room, so I’ll now recommend shorting four Oct 10 167 puts for 0.60 against the four held.
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Technical Analysis: Bears blew a chance to sack stocks yesterday when the Bad Guys reversed a 137 point plunge in the early going to close the Dow off a measly 42 points. Recently, it’s seemed all too easy for DaBoyz to manipulate the broad averages so that they almost never experience three down days in a row. One way they do this is to pull their bids overnight and let stocks fall on gaseous volume. The effect is to dry up sellers so that stocks can be short-squeezed to new highs without much effort or bullish buying. However, we should infer that this little trick is getting old when it takes a 137-point drop to set the trap. Moreover, although shorts remain as easy to spook as a sorority girl at a sceance, they weren’t so panicky yesterday that stocks were able to close up on the day.
One trader who re-shorted the E-Mini S&P yesterday after getting bucked off the horse by Friday’s strong rally suggested that the only thing keeping stocks aloft right now is end-of-month portfolio-squaring. This explanation feels right to me, but we won’t know for sure until October is under way. In the meantime, I’d recommend cautious shorting that follows our Hidden Pivot rules. Generally speaking, this means initiating shorts in this vehicle at minor rally targets whenever entry risk can be held to a theoretical five ticks or less.
Energy prices got a lift Wednesday from news that U.S. air strikes had targeted a Syrian oil installation held by ISIS. The refineries that were hit reportedly have been generating revenues of $2 million a day for the terrorist group, so the news was good (even if there was no mention of jihadis left dead by the attack). Whether or not the moderate spike in oil prices will disrupt the mini-bear market in crude remains to be seen. However, using Hidden Pivot analysis, it’s possible to project a further move to the shortable 94.77 target shown. If that happens, prices will have advanced nearly 6% from their September lows. It would take just a bit more than that, however — specifically, a print at 94.93 today or tomorrow — to turn the daily chart outright bullish.
We should not expect a bearish reversal to much alleviate rising prices at the pump, however, since crude’s nearly 15% slide from late June’s highs had little effect on prices, which in many parts of the country still hover near $3.80 for a gallon of regular. Reports by the slackers, fabulists and indolent hacks who bring us the news – including, unfortunately, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal — suggested otherwise, almost to the point of saying that gasoline prices had collapsed in recent weeks. Of course, those of us who actually buy gasoline saw prices come down by only a dime or so. _______ UPDATE (September 30, 10:29 a.m. EDT): My target caught today’s 94.90 top within 13 cents, and thus the start of a so-far $1.71 plunge. If you got short as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish tracking guidance.
The futures obliterated an 18.130 Hidden Pivot support on Friday, implying more downside to the 16.820 target shown. Because a tradable bounce from that Hidden Pivot seems likely, I am recommending bottom-fishing there, albeit with a very tight stop-loss (or with a ‘camouflage’ bid on charts of 3-minute degree or less). The futures have already slightly exceeded the 17.715 midpoint pivot (p1) associated with A=32.802 (1/25/13), so the new midpoint support (i.e., 16.820) is potentially a very important number. Notice that its easy breach would put an 8.776 ‘D’ target in play. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 9:22 p.m. EDT): A Hidden Pivot at 16.270 should also be mentioned as a downside target if the selling snowballs. It comes from a so-so, ’sausage’ pattern on the weekly chart, where A=24.865 on 8/30/13. _______ UPDATE (September 30, 3:53 p.m.): The low of today’s selloff came within 3 cents of the 16.820 target flagged above. For reasons noted above, this Hidden Support must not fail.
The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target. It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:23 p.m.): Sellers crushed the support after it held for just a day, implying more weakness is coming. If so, we should expect a test of support near the 58.86 low recorded in late May. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 7:27 p.m.): A weak rally has lifted RGLD off recent lows, but the move would need to hit 66.49 to turn the very lesser charts impulsively bullish. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance of importance lies at 66.22, so take encouragement if there’s an easy move through it.
I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.
Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares. But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.
From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668. If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23): Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT): The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago.