July 31st, 2014
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No sooner had Merkel and Sarkozy put the finishing touches on the latest bailout rumors than Standard & Poor’s was threatening to downgrade the debt of 15 of the 17 euroland nations.  Recall that as the week began, France and Germany were talking up the latest supposed solution to the debt crisis.  Bigger and better than their last supposed solution, it drew a rave from that man of discernment and cunning, Tim Geithner, who pulled out all the stops in making much ado about nothing. “The eyes of the world are very much on Europe now,” he told reporters in Berlin.  “[We should be] very encouraged by developments in Europe in the past two weeks, including reform commitments in Italy, Spain and Greece.” » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Silver looks poised to jump

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 2:07 am GMT

Early Wednesday morning, March Silver was stealing up on a bullish threshold whose breach could portend more upside over the near term to as high as 34.270. Check out the chart that accompanies today’s tout, since it offers a compelling picture as well as some useful price points for camouflage.


Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1256.50)

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 1:50 am GMT

December Mini S&P (ESZ11) price chart with targetsAll of the gurgly action of the last few days has taken place just beneath the external peak at 1270.75 recorded on November 14.  That makes the monster rally from 1147 suspect, since, having exceeded no prior peaks, it is not even impulsive on the daily chart. A minor upthrust from these levels would remedy that, but until such time as one occurs, and even in the wake of the recent 120-point explosion, the burden of proof properly rests with the bulls.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1731.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 2:04 am GMT

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CLF12 – January Crude (Last:100.68)

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 3:01 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:32.825)

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 9:10 am GMT

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SPY – S&P (Equity) (Last:123.47)

by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2011 9:00 pm GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1300.60)

by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2014 1:08 am GMT

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$ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1969.25)

by Rick Ackerman on July 30, 2014 12:40 am GMT

Slippage beneath the red line (p) late in Tuesday’s session implies the futures will now grope their way down to at least 1954.50 in search of traction.  This target is a pretty one, and I’d have no qualms about telling you to bottom-fish there with a three-tick stop-loss if it were hit intraday. However, because the target is being disseminated overnight and therefore will not be as fresh and mysterious when the futures get there, I’ll advise a cautious approach that suits your style if you plan to bottom-fish. As always, the most logical short would be from p if the retracement rally now in progress gets there.  Trading concerns aside, if the downtrend smashes the support it would indicate that the selling is waxing. _______ UPDATE (2:18 p.m.): Today’s hysterical, obligatory short-squeeze has come from 1956.50, cheating us out of an easy trade from the target I’d identified.  There’ll be other opportunities, for sure.  However, because the turn has come from a low that didn’t quite reach a clear correction target, bears had better give the rally wide berth.

$NFLX – Netflix (Last:431.51)

by Rick Ackerman on July 28, 2014 4:32 am GMT

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As GDXJ was working its way south from around $43, my bearish forecast called for a washout low at exactly 40.42, a Hidden Pivot support of great clarity. I’d suggested buying down there ‘aggressively’ and with an ‘absurdly’ tight stop-loss.  This advice would have paid off handsomely for anyone who followed it, since the stock trampolined 64 cents yesterday off an actual low of 40.43, a penny from my target. Since a subscriber reported doing the trade as advised, I’m establishing a tracking position for the further guidance of all who may have gotten long. (He reported having bought 1000 shares off a 40.44 bid, but I’ll assume a more conservative 400 shares.)  Accordingly, I’ll recommend exiting half the position on Friday’s opening if you haven’t done so already.  We’ll impute any profits thereof to the cost basis of the 200 shares that will remain. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:48 p.m. ET): Exiting 200 shares on Friday’s 41.20 opening leaves us with a tracking position of 200 shares whose imputed cost basis is 39.66.  Exit another 100 shares on today’s opening and tie the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 15-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply bailing out on an uncorrected dive touching 41.73. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 11:46 a.m.):  We got sleazed when DaBoyz opened the stock on the so-far low  of the day, 42.40.  The good news is that such shakedowns usually occur because the smart money is trying to buy the stock.  In any event, I am tracking a 100-share position with an effective cost basis of 37.25.  For the time being, let it run. _______ UPDATE July 29, 7:23 p.m. EDT): Let’s turn the position into a covered write if GDXJ slips beneath 42.25 today (see inset, a new chart).  Specifically, you should short one August 16th 41 call for each hundred shares you own. Don’t simply bang out a sale on the bid when the stock hits 42.24, since you could get clipped for as much as 0.20-0.25 on the spread that way.  Instead, you should be deliberate and relaxed about the short sale of the call, since we are in the catbird’s seat and have little to lose by taking in some option premium at this point.  Shoot for a price midway between the bid and offer, and don’t rule out the possibility that GDXJ could snap back above 42.25 even in the process of breaking down. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:32 p.m.): _______ UPDATE (2:30 p.m. EDT):  I’ve yet to hear from anyone, but a ‘relaxed’ short could have been done anywhere between 2.03 and a current bid/offer of 2.45/2.90.  I’ll use a cost basis 2.55, about midway between, unless I hear otherwise.

$+PCLN – Priceline (Last:1238.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 24, 2014 12:54 am GMT

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into ‘free’ butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven’t yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn’t blast off.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:115.40)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 5:36 am GMT

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$EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.33950)

by Rick Ackerman on July 23, 2014 12:01 am GMT

I haven’t tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point ‘A’.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday’s short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we’ve chosen as well as its ‘D’ target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday’s low occurred at 1.34206 — 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:43 p.m.): The futures have breached the lowest of the targets I’d provide from the lesser charts. This implies that a bigger-picture target at 1.32091 is in play. The chart(see inset, a new one) shows this.

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The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term.  The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there’s an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as  78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important ‘external’ peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:53 p.m.): 81.85, here we come!! (See inset, a new chart.)


This Just In... for Wednesday

This Thursday morning, December 8th, Rick will be conducting a webinar focused on the state of global markets. Among the specific topics of discussion will be bellweathers such as the Dollar Index, T-Bond futures, the euro and index futures for the broad averages. During these events Rick examines a variety of issues with an eye towards providing actionable trading advice to attendees. Register now for the free event. Space is limited. Reserve your slot now.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on August 13-14, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.